저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 워런 버핏의 2020년 주주서한을 바탕으로 채권은 매력이 낮고 저금리 환경에서 위험자산 쏠림을 경계해야 한다는 논의. 버핏의 채권 관련 발언: 전 세계 채권 투자자는 암울한 미래에 직면하며, 보험사 등이 초라한 수익률을 보완하려 부실 차입자 등 위험한 대상으로 옮겨가는 것은 답이 아니라고 경고함. 금리 흐름: 미국 10년물 금리는 지난주 1.5% 수준 근처까지 올랐다가 1.43% 부근으로 되돌아온 상태로 언급됨. 버크셔 해서웨이 자사주 매입: 4분기 90억 달러 매입, 2020년 누적 247억 달러로 역대 기록 수준. 버핏은 원래 자사주 매입을 선호하지 않지만 회사 본질가치가 하락한다고 판단할 때 직접 개입한다고 설명됨. 버크셔 성과: 1965년 이후 연평균 약 20%로 S&P500의 약 10%를 상회했으나, 2019~2020년은 S&P500에 크게 뒤처짐. 항공주 선투자 실패 등이 거론됨. PCC(프리시전캐스트파츠) 손실: 약 110억 달러 규모의 손상 인식. 버핏은 회사를 너무 비싸게 샀고 정상화 이익 잠재력을 지나치게 낙관했다고 인정함. 애플 보유: 2020년 말 기준 버크셔의 최대 보유 종목으로 약 1,200억 달러 규모로 언급됨. 포트폴리오 집중과 기술주 비중 확대에 대한 관심이 큼. 출연자 전망: 구체적인 시장 방향 예측 발언은 뚜렷하지 않고, 장기 투자 관점에서 연도별 부진은 불가피하다는 취지의 코멘트가 중심.
다듬은 글
first i want to kick things off today with warren buffett's annual letter akiko because we learned a bit more about his thinking for the year not only how he's feeling about past mistakes highlighting in his words over paying for precision cast parts but also his new warning about bonds not being the place to be for investors and the potential risks that investors on that side of the trade might be chasing with yields still extremely yeah low bond yield story is certainly uh relevant given just how quickly we saw the yields rise last week and on that front a no surprise uh warren buffett saying bonds are not the place to be these days and let's specifically look at what he said in that annual letter because a lot of investors looking at this to sort of potentially reposition their portfolios warren buffett saying fixed income investors worldwide face a bleak future some insurers as well as other bond investors may try to juice the pathetic returns now available by shifting their purchases to obligations backed by shaky borrowers risky loans however are not the answer to inadequate interest rates an interesting take there and you know when you look at where things are trading today we are we have seen the 10-year yield pull back in a significant way after really getting close to that one and a half percent level last week we're looking at 1.43 right now another thing that stood out to me was also kind of what he talked about in terms of berkshire's buybacks we saw berkshire buying back a record amount of company shares fourth quarter the company brought back nine billion dollars of its shares bringing the total repurchasing of 2020 to 24.7 billion dollars and zach on that front we've heard warren buffett say before that he doesn't necessarily believe in buybacks but it is something that he sees the need to inject himself especially when he believes that the intrinsic value of a company is dropping so maybe some uh some indication of where he sees berkshire share trading in relation to the broader market right now yeah and you can see how that historically uh stacks up uh compared to poor uh quarters of the past there in terms of their share buybacks but i mean uh we talked so much about the recent performance of berkshire and how it stacks up against the market but when you really zoom back i mean it's tough to knock warren buffett for his past performance relative to what since since the 60s outperforming the s p 500 by a two to one margin when you back up uh and track it all the way back then but as of late i mean some people have been highlighting some of his misses of course there was the airlines move right before kind of that became a very popular retail trade in betting on the reopening of not just travel but the broader cyclical kind of stocks that we've been talking about here on this show so people are focusing in on that maybe focusing in on the way that apple is now a very sizable piece of his portfolio the largest stock holding in terms of common stock but what do you make of that when you really do zoom back and try and piece together how his maybe investment thesis has changed in some of the companies he's now betting on yeah interesting context here i would uh sort of point our viewers to the morning brief from our editor sam rowe because he had a pretty good chart here that shows the performance of virtual shares in relation to the s p 500 and when you look at 2019 and 2020 overall uh certainly underperforming the s p 500 by a wide margin berkshire shares overall though uh looking at a performance since 1965 uh we have seen berkshire shares see an average annual return of 20 compared to the s p 500's 10 so that's not necessarily to say uh to call out warren buffett on on his investing he certainly knows way more than i do about investing in the market but but it does point to the fact that if you are sort of long-term in investing here you are going to have some years where things don't go well in the point that you pointed out here uh precision um caspar so he he has talked specifically about the mistake on that front 11 billion right down there he says i paid too much for the company no one misled me in any way i was simply too optimistic about pcc's normalized profit potential so we all know warren buffett to be somebody who when he knows he there's a mistake there he's the first one to own up to it and at least on that front it sounds like he feels like things were going to be much more rosier than they turned out to be yeah and on those more recent bets there maybe just worth highlighting because a lot of people have apple in their portfolio so maybe not a surprise to really see how that's been a standout in his holdings but uh when you think about where it's at it was 120 billion dollars in terms of the size of that apple holding at the end of 2020
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