저자: 미상 · 외국인
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데이비드 테퍼가 4분기에 중국 주식(알리바바, JD, PDD, 바이두, FXI, KWEB 등)을 공격적으로 매수했다고 소개. 중국 정부의 완화적 통화정책·대규모 부양책(약 1,000억 달러 규모 주가 안정 기금), 낮은 밸류에이션(알리바바 현금 차감 시 약 10배 이하), 자사주 매입이 근거. 알리바바는 매출 성장 정체와 점유율 하락이 약점이지만 클라우드·AI 모델(Qwen) 등 센티먼트 전환이 상승 동인이라고 주장. 다만 지정학적 리스크(대만)와 규제 위험이 커 본인 체크리스트에는 맞지 않는다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
just earlier today it came out that David terer was aggressively buying Chinese stocks in the fourth quarter this follows a prior video that I did at the end of 2024 calling out how he was saying look everything China was up for grabs in terms of buying it being a potential opportunity and that their amount of stimulus blew away expectations because of how aggressive that they were being this this was an interview that he did on CNBC and you can see what he's been buying you can see Alibaba you know he was adding hundreds of millions to these various different Chinese stocks Alibaba JD various different Chinese ETFs like fxi and kweb along with Buu and so in this video I'm going to walk you through not only the position sizing you know that he has sort of a macro very high level macro perspective on what is he seeing as well as sort of diving into the individual thesis what's the upside from here cuz some of these Chinese companies have you know the bottoming process and are starting to recover so the question is is there significant upside as always let's Dive Right into understanding what is going on so looking at his portfolio you can see Alibaba largest position over 15% of the portfolio and he was adding to it so this is as of the end of the year 2024 also adding to PDD also adding significantly to jd.com and you can see fxi so looking at these different positions it's clear that this is well north of 30% of his portfolio and this a multi-billion dollar portfolio and the high level sort of macro is that the Chinese government if you look at their poit buau they're aiming for an appropriately loose and that's what they've said monetary policy cutting rates for the first time in years and you know Ray doio plenty of prominent investors have called out be aware of the macro be aware of you know what what are the biggest players like the government telling you to do because often times it makes your life easier as an investor so if the government's telling you hey we're going to juice the assets we're going to make it a more friendly environment for investors you should be aware of that and so for them to talk about an appropriately loose monetary policy that does you know make it more favorable for Chinese stock investors so that's one of the things he's seen he's also seen that you know they've announced effectively a war chest you know in one case it was around a hundred billion dollar to stabilize stock prices so this gets to the point of yeah the Chinese government is very clear they want to turn things around they want consumption to improve they want to get past the real estate crisis that they've had uh so looking at it not only do you have the stimulus from the Chinese government saying look we are going to you know juice things up but you're also looking at very low valuations you know across the board for these top Chinese companies broadly looking at you know very low teens or high singled digigit earnings multiples for next year and I'd argue it's even lower when you factor in the cash on the balance sheet or the Investments that they hold in which case really you're talking about to mid to high single digit earning multiples for many of these different companies so that could suggest a lot of upside you know think about just where US stocks are trading us S&P S&P 500 roughly around 23 24 times earnings so this is less than half the valuation for some of these arguably some of the best businesses in less than half the multiple relative to to the US and not only do you have David terer you might think okay he's just gone off his rocker you're also seeing other super smart investors the smart money Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel these were actually the guys from The Big Short uh they currently manag money from under Seawolf cap Seawolf capital and they have recently been on CNBC talking about how look Baba just looks interesting they're talking about the risk reward at the valuation they were you know saying the the exact same thing that I'm saying to you now they were calling out around five times earnings adjusted you know for cash and Investments for Baba and saying yeah you don't you don't have to have a lot go right to have this you know work out significantly for shareholders you know where you could see 100% plus upside type of potential and not only do you have these dynamics that have turned more favorably for investors but you're seeing that they're aggressively repurchasing shares and since you know March of 2023 through the end of 2024 they've spent billions of dollars and this is in the case of Alibaba they've spent billions of dollars repurchasing shares and they've reduced the share count by about 10% and they still have $20 billion remaining on buyback so a lot of BuyBacks so let's focus on Alibaba because this is his largest position over 15% of the portfolio so what what does he see and what's going on from here let's let's analyze the fundamentals a little bit greater Clarity you could see from a fundamental perspective this is the the revenue picture as of September 30th 2024 they haven't yet released their December 2024 figures and historically taba T mall that's their core e-commerce platform that's where what historically created the bulk of the value and it's just not growing significantly at all you can see that the revenue was effectively zero and so they're clearly losing market share but this is still the largest e-commerce company in China so that is worthwhile to understand and there are other segments that are growing such as their Cloud business and you know their International segment which is growing nicely and then you also have you know some other assets like their Logistics and local Services businesses that are growing a little bit faster than their their core e-commerce business so a lot of interesting assets their Cloud business could be you know a ray of light for them and you know tabout tal yes they're not growing yes they're losing market share but they're still big still highly cash generative and you know in terms of that cash generation you can still see that they're generating you know billions of dollars tens of billions in R&B they're doing an aggressive share repurchase and by the way they still have $50 billion in net cash on their balance sheet as of September 30th so relative to let's say a market cap of around $250 billion just cash alone is roughly 1 in terms of Alibaba then when you start focusing on on the other assets other Investments you know maybe you bump that up to closer to 100 billion so a huge you know element of Alibaba is not just their core businesses generating lots of profits but these other assets and I think investors do like to see the disposal of these you know either unprofitable or really low margin retail assets such as Sun art and end time which is more recent announcements from management this is you know management sort of having their their religious of saying we want to focus on the high return on invested Capital our previous initiatives weren't working we're going to focus on what's really cash generative and focus on the consumer and you know maybe this whole physical retail approach it didn't make sense it's not working yeah you don't like to see the waffling you'd rather see you know hey we're going to commit to this and this is a great idea and it works but in this case they're saying it didn't work and they're effectively disposing this for a couple billion dollars having some losses tied to it an example of how Alibaba could work work even if the underlying fundamentals stink is just the change in sentiment where here it is they're talking about how they have a new AI model uh Quin um where they're saying look it's it's very similar to The Deep seek Chinese model that came out that caused the whole world to go holy moly you know now China has a reasoning AI model that can challenge open AI this is an example of I think a call option on Alibaba that a lot of investors aren't even aware of or they're not even playing for which is that if Alibaba says hey we're now the open AI of China and you can get exposure to some of the most cuttingedge AI models from us then that changes the whole perception then investors might say wow this this should get a much higher multiple than closer to 10 times or less you know when you factoring the assets that they have you know that can turn it in from a like oh it's China to like whoa this is this is a revolutionary type of business it's this new hypergrowth I sort of play so you could have that change in sentiment sentiment is going to be a key part I'd argue of the thesis you know when you think about it and there have even been rumors that they might acquire a stake of deep seek you know buying it for like buying a billion billion dollar and making it a billion dollar investment for 10% you know that that's been rumored but they've they've said you know it's not happening so who knows that that alone though could change a sentiment what are my thoughts when we look at Alibaba dvice and also quick plug recently venu a direct quote joining your membership has been one of the best investments both in terms of value and personal growth this follows a Woods who wrote I'm currently ahead of my investing goals to retire at age 45 that's thanks to unrivaled investing so it out that's unrival investing.com when I look at Alibaba I think it is important to recognize that in the past year it has fundamentally changed it's hasn't it's no longer in that sort of death spiral lower in the last year the stock is up over 50% the reason why that's important is because that's suggesting that the tides might be turning and that's enough to get a lot of momentum-driven investors the hedge funds to say oh this story might just be starting so then they start looking at the fundamentals and say does this story have juice because hey if this is I'm not going to catch a falling knife that's the way a lot of investors you know think H you know it's too hard i' rather wait you know I'd rather miss the bottom but ride it you know I I I don't need to get the first Inning on the the new bull market I can get it on the third inning and and ride it all the way through and so I think this is it's important to have this sort of sort of you know this development this 50% plus growth in the share price despite you know sort of underwhelming fundamentals because it does suggest the macro elements of the Chinese government it does suggest the policies from management it it's getting the animal spirits and it's getting investors to say this might be worth a lot more and this is this is where it comes to okay so is there enough of a thesis to get the stock price significantly higher from here I think you know doing not only the the monetary policy and the stimulus also having a dual primary listing on you know with with Hong Kong so that way you're able to encourage Chinese savors to invest in Baba that also you know increases the odds that you get a higher share price type of dynamic but when you look at the fundamentals I really really really do not like to see that taba and t-all are effectively not growing while JD and PDD are growing much faster JD's bit slower but PDD is much much faster so they're clearly taking market share and for me personally as an investor I always prefer to you know that that's a that's a good Red Light Green Light type of test if you have a company that's rapidly taking market share it suggests you're doing something right and it gives you a little bit of comfort that oh okay maybe you can keep doing that in the quarters ahead and it helps you from an investment perspective right now with with Alibaba we're talking about the cash flow being returned to you as a shareholder you know and and you get the BuyBacks but seeing this this is a red light like it's it's it's harder over time when you have this type of dynamic and you know for my own personal investment checklist align management you have you have the chairman founder Joe chai Joe Sai you know he's he's back you know he's helping govern the company so that's what I like to see um you you have arguably a very compelling valuation trading around 10 times arguably lower if you factor in the cash and other assets this is the one that where it sort of breaks the obvious growth potential and I would just much rather find something where I could say yeah definitively this is going to be much much larger in the future the blowup risks that's also something we're going to talk about in a second so you know at this point I think it's very obvious to that this doesn't fit my own personal checklist because of that obvious growth potential when you see the red red flag of your losing market share here you know what's really driving the growth because you could you could be in a situation where you lose market share and maybe even sales decline in the future for Alibaba so I I look at Alibaba and I'm looking at all these data points and I view it more as a special situation so I could understand why these super smart investors like David terer and they're and and the the the Seawolf folks are buying it saying look it's just so cheap and you know the the macro has become much more favorable personally I I you know I don't own any Alibaba but I could understand why investors would be so excited about it and it comes down to from a fundamental perspective you know looking at their core earnings from taba t-all from cloud you know you're generating roughly 200 billion in earnings before interest in taxes and amortization and so that's around $20 billion net $2 billion you know net profit you can think of that roughly as free cash flow that investors could get so what's $20 billion worth relative to a company with a $250 billion market cap and 50 billion in cash what's that worth so 200 billion less than that Enterprise Value versus 20 so you're saying 10 times you know net of cash a lot less if you factor in some what what these other assets might you know sell for and so my view is this is purely this is largely because growth isn't such a big part of it at this point I mean their cloud is picking up but it's not you know crazy growth what I would say is this is really a sentiment story and there are always three factors that drive your returns there's the you know what are the fundamental growth you know can you pencil out 5 10 20% type of growth over time is it obvious for me I'm looking at this it's less obvious that the fundamentals in terms of growth are there but the other two areas such as the cash being returned to you and the S the the valuation I think it really comes down to valuation I think you have this possibility because the government's juicing the market and you have investors their attitude might go H I don't want to own it to hey maybe there's something sexy here with with an AI play that it goes from a very low multiple valuation to closer to maybe more of a normal multiple or a higher multiple like what you see with the US markets um you know and a more normal multiple plus favorable shareholder you know policies like BuyBacks and dividends you know I would think might suggest you know at least 50 to 100% upside that's that's what I'm thinking with the 20 billion slapping on a richer multiple so it's really valuation expansion driving the thesis that said there are still severe overhangs like geopolitical regulatory you know policy like the CCP could wake up one morning and just Crush an investment thesis and we've seen this multiple times you know that have occurred in various different Industries in China you know they could just say hey there's been a disorderly expansion of capital or perhaps this is the one that really makes me uncomfortable you know some sort of invasion of Taiwan and there have been some indications there have been some stories that really do make me uncomfortable here such as you know Naval news was talking about how China's been building a fleet of special barges suitable for Taiwan land ings and then there's also several stories about under sea internet cables being cut around Taiwan and around the world from various different Chinese ships so those sorts of stories make this too hard for me personally I would rather first of all that reading those types of headlines just makes me uncomfortable I I don't want to I don't want this taking up space on my mind on a daily basis and I'd rather find something that a feels good for my daily journey and B I have that confidence that that it it checks everything else out on my my checklist yes you have the Align management yes you have the compelling valuation and it's also there's this obvious growth for why it should be much much bigger in the future I hope this video talking about David terer billionaire plowing away hundreds Millions more in the Chinese market buying various different Chinese stocks has been helpful as well as sort of a highlevel perspective on Alibaba why that's one of his top positions if this has been helpful for you please hit that Thumbs Up Hit That subscribe button thanks so much for tuning in to unrivaled invest in
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