저자: FactJet채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
Ray Dalio 인터뷰(영리 제로금리 환경)를 중심으로 한 시장 해설. 결론: 제로금리와 재정·통화 정책이 만든 인위적 경기 부양으로 실질금리가 떨어지고 현금 보유의 실질 가치가 감소하므로 분산투자가 핵심이다. [Dalio 인터뷰 요지] 정책 조합(재정+통화)으로 금리가 제로 근처까지 내려가고 연준이 국채를 매입하는 리플레이션 상태이며, 얼마나 지속될지는 불확실하다. 실질금리(명목금리 - 인플레이션율)가 음수로 떨어지면 은행 예금 현금은 매년 가치가 줄어든다(예: 인플레이션 4%면 실질금리 -4%). 'cash is trash' 주장을 재강조. 연준 매입으로 자산 가격은 올라가지만 향후 수익률은 현재 가격보다 낮아질 수 있고, 시장 수급은 중앙은행·정부에 의해 왜곡된다. 핵심 결론은 분산투자: 자산군·국가·통화를 나눠 장기적으로 안정적 수익을 확보하라. 향후 수익률은 과거 10년보다 낮을 가능성이 높다는 점도 인정. 역사는 상향 나선형으로 반복된다는 관점에서 과거를 참고해 위기를 예방하자는 메시지. [넷플릭스] 2분기 신규 구독자 1,000만 명(예상 대비 250만 명 상회), 누적 1억 9,200만 명. 그럼에도 주가는 당일 11% 하락. 신규 가입 둔화 신호가 나타났고 다음 분기 예상은 250만 명(시장 기대 500만 명 이상). 4월 주주서한에서 성장 둔화를 예고했으며, 봉쇄 완화와 콘텐츠 제작 지연으로 라이브러리 확충도 느려질 것으로 봄. [주택 대출금리] 30년 고정 모기지 금리가 2.98%로 50년 내 최저(프레디맥 자료). 여유 있다면 주택 구입을 고려할 시점. 확진자가 계속 늘면 금리는 더 하락할 가능성, 백신 등으로 경기 회복 신호가 나오면 반등 가능성. [백신 - 모더나(MRNA)] 3상 진행 중인 두 후보: 캔시노(CanSino, 원문 'synova biotech'로 기재) 코로나백신은 6월 발표에서 90% 이상 환자에서 중화항체 형성. 모더나 mRNA-1273은 1상 전원 중화항체 형성, 올해 주가 3배 이상 상승. mRNA 백신은 생산 확장이 빠른 장점(수개월 vs 기존 1~2년). 다만 모더나 경영진이 주식을 빠르게 매도 중이라 과대평가 가능성 있음. 수익 마진과 경쟁사를 면밀히 검토할 것을 권고. [기타] 진행자는 100만원→1000만원 S&P500 적립 시리즈를 소개하며 매월 100달러씩 S&P500 인덱스펀드에 투자 중이라고 밝힘(당주 +1.28%, 누적 +13.32%).
다듬은 글
welcome back to episode 12 of my 100 to 10 000 series where i invest 100 every month in the s p 500 index fund to show everyone that you don't need to be a millionaire or have a phd to invest successfully this week we are up 1.28 and overall we're up 13.32 last month bridgewater released an interview with its founder ray dalio with the topic of managing money in a zero interest rate environment and i want to discuss today what his thoughts are going forward ray dalio starts off with mentioning the same things that his co-cio bob prince mentioned in his interview which i covered in my last week's video which i will leave a link in the description below if you guys want to check it out the basic summary that ray dalio gives us on our current economic situation is that monetary policy 3 which is a combination of fiscal and monetary policies with lowering of interest rates to near zero and through the fed's purchasing of government debt we have what is known as reflation which is an artificial sort of economic expansion powered by the government to prevent the economy from crashing by the pandemic and there's a lot of uncertainty with regards to how long the government can or will keep up providing these artificial support systems of the economy so the big concern today is that as the government continues to print money while keeping interest rates at zero the real interest rate which is the nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate will go down and why is this bad because the real interest rate is what the everyday consumers will be experiencing in their everyday lives so for example the nominal interest rate is set at zero by the fed but the real interest rate is also controlled by the inflation rate and let's say that the inflation rate is double the usual percent at four percent in that case the real interest rate becomes negative four percent and what that means is that every dollar you have sitting in your bank account will be worth four percent less every year because everything else that you want to buy will cost that much more and because of this real interest rate problem ray dalio once again re-emphasizes his cash as trash idea and what happens when the fed continues buying these different kinds of assets it drives up the prices of these assets that the fed is pouring money into but the actual returns on these assets are going to be lower than the price that they are trading at in addition because no asset is completely risk-free there is volatility in the prices of these assets and unlike the normal capitalist system where the market decides the prices of assets through supply and demand the demand side of the free market is controlled by the central bank and the government the one main takeaway from the interview that ray dalio strongly emphasizes is that diversification is key and he admits that returns on most asset classes will be a lot lower due to the pandemic compared to what we've been seeing for the near future and he is very honest with his answer because he admits that neither he nor anyone else does not know what will be the best investment in the future so it is important that you diversify your portfolio so that you do not put your eggs in one basket instead dalio says that one should look to diversify your holdings across different assets different countries and different currencies this will allow you to get the highest chance of stable returns over the long term even though it is highly likely that the returns that you will be seeing is going to be lower than what we've experienced in the past 10 years and lastly the interviewer asked ray dalio to discuss some of the big things that he learned throughout all of his history of money management that helps him deal with this current economic crisis his response is that history repeats itself like an upward pointing corkscrew where the same types of events repeat throughout the course of history and that we can look to the past to help us see what we can do to prevent a catastrophe in a future video i will discuss how this view can help us look back in history to compare our current situation so make sure you are subscribed with the bell notification icon turned on this thursday netflix announced their new subscriber count for q2 which beat expectations by 2.5 million subs by gaining 10 million new subs in the three months netflix's total sub count is now at 192 million but despite this netflix stock dropped 11 the same day this is because netflix's new sub count has started showing weakening signs in the first three months of 2020 netflix reported an even higher number than q2 with 15.7 million new subs and in the next three months netflix expects the new sub count to be lower but in the next three months netflix expects the new sub count to be lowered to 2.5 million when many were expecting at least 5 million new subs this slowing in growth was actually forecasted back in april by netflix and their letter to shareholders where they predicted that they were pulling the subscriber growth from later on in the year and that as the lockdown is eased and people get tired of watching netflix all day the tremendous growth will slow down and with production of new movies and shows being stopped and delayed by the lockdown netflix will have a slowing addition to their library now may be a good time to consider buying a house if you have the means to because 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to 2.98 percent which is the lowest we've seen in the last 50 years this data was provided by freddie mac which is the federal home loan mortgage corporation freddie mac is a government-sponsored enterprise that was established in 1970 with the emergency home finance act to keep money flowing through the secondary mortgage market while reducing risk for banks to encourage home ownership mortgage rates will probably continue to drop further if the number of cases continue to rise in the u.s and go back up if there is a sign of recovery in the larger economy through the development of an effective vaccine for example on the topic of vaccines currently there are two potential coveted vaccines that are in phase 3 testing the first is coronavec from synova biotech which reported in june that over 90 of patients that were introduced to the drug developed neutralizing antibodies which indicates that the vaccine can stimulate a positive immune response and the company partnered with an institution in brazil to conduct the phase iii studies and the other potential vaccine in the phase 3 stage is the mrna 1273 developed by the us-based moderna ticker symbol mrna which showed all participants in its phase 1 study developed neutralizing antibodies and as a result the stock of moderna is up over threefold this year the important thing to note about moderna's vaccine is that it is an mrna vaccine typically a normal vaccine introduces small or inactivated doses of the virus or the proteins that the virus produces which causes the body to recognize and train against the virus but for an mrna vaccine it encourages the body into producing the viral proteins using mrna the benefit of an mrna vaccine over traditional vaccine is that they can be scaled up easily in production one estimate is a few months compared to one to two years for a traditional vaccine but before you go out and buy shares of moderna it's important to note that executives at moderna are selling their shares at a rapid pace which may indicate that their shares are a bit overhyped and overpriced especially so since we don't know how much margin these vaccines will make so if you do decide to buy shares of moderna make sure that you look deeper into the potential market its rivals and how much the company will actually be able to benefit on this that's gonna do it for me this week stay safe and i will see you guys in my next video
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