저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
하워드 막스는 현재 시장이 바이러스로 인한 특수 상황이라 재정·통화정책만으로는 경기 회복이 어렵고, 바이러스 해결과 추가 재정부양이 필요하다고 본다. 저금리 환경이 자산가격 상승을 이끌었다는 점을 설명한다. 연준의 국채 대량 매입(3~7월 2.3조 달러, 2008년 대비 18배)으로 안전자산 수익률이 떨어지면서 투자자들이 주식 등 위험자산으로 이동했다고 분석한다. 막스는 버블이라고 단정하지 않으며, 팬데믹으로 비대면 회의·전자상거래·클라우드 수요가 늘어 빅테크 성장에 대한 기대가 크다고 언급한다. 다만 성장 기업이 수익성 단계에 들어서면 이익이 커질 것으로 본다. 전반적으로 저금리로 모든 자산군의 기대수익률이 낮아질 것으로 전망한다. 투자자의 선택지로 평상시처럼 투자하되 낮은 수익을 받아들이기, 현금 보유하며 다음 하락 대기, 더 위험한 자산에 투자하기, 틈새·사모시장 투자 등을 제시한다. 결론적으로 현재 투자에 좋은 선택지는 없으며 불확실성이 크고 자산가격이 높다는 점에서 막스는 방어적 태도를 취한다고 정리된다. 구체적 종목이나 가격 목표는 언급되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
howard marx is a legendary investor and founder of oaktree capital which manages over 120 billion dollars in assets and in this video i'm going to discuss his latest memo to shareholders also released a memo back in august which i covered in one of my previous videos and back then he discussed that we are out of the normal market cycles where businesses and the economy grows until the fed starts putting on the brakes through monetary policies like raising interest rates to try and prevent the economy from overheating which then leads to a slowing down of businesses until the fed uses monetary policies to rejuvenate the economy but this current market situation we are in is caused by the virus so it requires a solution for the virus just support through fiscal and monetary policy is just not going to be enough to bring back the economy the way it was before but of course that doesn't mean that additional stimulus packages are not necessary the stimulus packages that businesses and individuals received was to replace the lost income and sources of revenues after millions received the pay cut or were laid off and the virus is still here and still affecting many businesses but the government isn't sending out another package yet because neither side of the political parties wants to give the other an edge before the election in july 17 of fha secured mortgages were delinquent and in new york that number was even worse at 27 and the state and local governments are running out of money too as many people are making less money the state and local governments are seeing less money received in taxes but the services of firefighters emts and the police among others are required more than ever and so the local and state governments can print money like the fed so additional aid is needed to maintain the essential services operating so for the economy to recover we first need a solution for the virus and we need additional stimulus from the government to replace the lost incomes in people's pockets and then marx discusses how the low interest environment has affected the rise in asset prices the most obvious effect of lowering interest rates is that it encourages people and businesses to borrow more since they can borrow more for less interest which encourages them to spend money which in turn accelerates the economy as money flows faster between individuals and businesses another factor is that a lower expected yield on what is considered safe investments like treasuries brings down the expected returns on other investments like stocks because stocks are more risky than treasuries there is something called the risk premium added to the returns on stocks for example if the expected return on investing one hundred dollars into a treasury is five percent or five dollars the expected return on investing in something else that is more risky like stocks needs to be higher so if you invested in stocks which is more risky than treasuries and you invest in one hundred dollars you might expect a yield of seven percent or seven dollars instead of the five dollars that you would receive in investing in treasuries and this is because investors prefer safer investments like treasuries over stocks so in general if treasury yields go down the yields on other investments also tend to go down which also means that prices of these investments go up since the yield on an investment is simply the return on the investment divided by the price of the investment and the fed has been buying a record level of treasury bonds and notes between march and july where they spend 2.3 trillion dollars which is 18 times more than what they spent in the 2008 financial crisis so as safe asset yields go down mostly due to the actions by the fed pouring money into the bonds investors will look elsewhere to park their money in to meet their investing goals namely in riskier assets like stocks but marx doesn't say that we are in a bubble he even says that he has high hopes for the big tech companies because the pandemic has forced businesses and individuals to adopt virtual meetings e-commerce and cloud computing for our everyday lives and because there is so much growth in competition in the tech sector right now marx notes that once these rapid growing companies establish their business and spend less on growing they will become much more profitable and as these tech companies grow bigger they also kill their competition and disrupt the established companies and we've all seen examples of that happen as brick and mortar retail stores are forced to either offer services online or lose their customers to amazon but for the general market marx expects low returns because of the low interest environment that drags down yields across all asset classes and he outlines all the decisions investors can make at this time the first is to invest as normal while accepting the fact that your investments will have lower returns than normal the second is to take out all your money out of risky assets and hold cash until the next downturn the third is to invest in even riskier assets than you normally would to seek normal returns and the fourth is to find niche or private markets to invest in but this also entails a very high risk so marx concludes that there is no great choices to be made in the world of investing right now uncertainty is still very high with no vaccines and political turmoil and during these times asset prices are usually low which creates high yields and buying opportunities but asset prices instead are still very high despite the high risk so marx is going defensive mode although he doesn't share exactly what that means but that's going to do it for this video don't forget to subscribe with the bell notification icon turned on and let me know down in the comments your investing strategies and how you think about marx's opinions and i will see you guys in the next one
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