저자: DavideManzoni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 린치의 안전마진(margin of safety) 개념을 실제 계산 방법 위주로 설명하는 교육 영상이며, 특정 종목의 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 영상 목적: 피터 린치 『Beating the Street』 11장의 투자 전략을 소개하고 안전마진을 계산하는 시각적 방법을 공유한다. 전략 개요: 실적이 부진한 업종에서 경쟁우위와 우수한 경영진을 갖춘 최고 기업을 찾는다는 접근이다. 업종 부진은 강한 기업이 더 빨리 회복해 높은 수익을 줄 수 있는 기회로 본다. 종목 탐색 방법: 최근 1년간 성과가 가장 나빴던 세계 지수 ETF를 찾고(JustETF 활용), 그 지수 상위 보유 종목을 확인한다. 영상 예시로 에너지 관련 지수 내 토탈(Total)을 선택했다. 계산 방법: 주당순이익(EPS)을 분기·연간 기준으로 10년 이상 정리한다. 가능하면 기업 공식 사이트에서 과거 데이터를 확보하는 것을 권장한다. 차트 방법: 주가와 EPS를 같은 시점 기준 누적 퍼센트 변화로 비교 차트에 그린다. 이익 변화율 선이 주가 변화율 선보다 위에 있으면 저평가 가능성을 의미한다. 사례 검토: 토탈, 에디슨, 엔터지 등에서 이익과 주가 괴리를 보여주며, 네슬레는 2012년 이후 이익이 급등한 뒤 주가 대비 고평가 가능성이 있다고 설명한다. 다만 괴리의 원인(자산 매각 등 일회성 요인)은 기업 펀더멘털 분석으로 추가 확인해야 한다고 강조한다. 리스크/주의: 차트 방법은 안전마진 여부를 판단하는 출발점일 뿐이며, 이익 급등의 원인을 반드시 검증해야 한다. 영상은 투자 권유가 아닌 방법론 설명이다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
In today's video I want to share with you an investment strategy by Peter Lynch. Peter Vince is an investor that I really liked, especially since I read his book, Beating the Street. In chapter 11, he tries to share his favorite investment strategy with the readers. I really like it because you can understand how Peter Lynch calculates the margin of safety.
In this video, I want to try to share it with you and apply it, especially how Peter Lynn's margin of safety is calculated. I really like it because it's a margin of safety and it's visual. As we're going to see now, we don't have to try to understand where we need to look for companies to invest in because we can quote the margin of safety anywhere.
Of course, let's try to follow Peter Ninja's strategy. We find it in chapter 11, where the chapter is titled Blossom, practically flowers in the desert. The subtitle is Great Companies in the US Industries, so excellent companies are in bad sectors. In fact, Peter Lynch says we have to go and look for the best companies, because their sector is going through a bad time because the best companies, therefore those with a competitive advantage, those who have Excellent management will be able to get out of the crisis sooner and will be able to give us an excellent return.
How can we find the best companies in different sectors? Naturally, I don't know how to find the best ones. But let's start looking for the worst sectors with the internet. It's very difficult. Just go and get the major world indices and look at those that have been performing worse for the past year.
Now let's go to my PC and I'll show you how I do it. I personally rely on Just ETF because it's a fantastic portal for finding all the ETFs available on the Italian stock exchange. This is also because if we go to the ETF search in the left column we find the reference indices, so we have a perfect parameter for the world indices.
For today's example, I've already gone and got some indices that have performed worse for the past year, which are anxiety and world energy. Here it is. I then chose the State Street stocks, partly because it's also the largest and also because of the market and State Street. Let's open the information sheet and look at the companies that make up the index.
I wo n't tell you about this index for you. I'll show you practically what minus 31 makes. A premise: this is just an example. Let's just look at the practical side of selecting a company and finding the margin of safety. The top ten main positions include Exor, Chevron, Total, British Petrolium, Gold, and Audacity, among others.
However, we see that the first two have a very large weight within the portfolio. However, for example, I chose Total, the third with an almost 7 percent weight in the portfolio. Once we've chosen the company that is within the sector that has performed terribly, we need to look at the profits that this company has generated in recent years.
Let's say that to calculate Peter Vince's margin of safety, all-in options for Cher will work well, therefore the earnings per share. Most of the websites that deal with the subject provide the company's latest earnings. In this example, I'll go to the investing punto.com website, but my advice is that to be sure and to go back in time as far as possible, it's to go to the company's official website, mainly for two reasons: you need at least the last ten years of earnings, possibly the quarterly earnings, to better see the trend.
Investing is often a good idea. punto.com does not give the possibility of going so far back and that's it. For this reason alone, I took all these days per share and I put them on a very simple Excel spreadsheet that you can see here. What needs to be done is to see the growth of the ring per share.
It's fine quarter over quarter but it's also fine year over year before on a quarter. Simply, you can see the safety margin a little better. Once we find this, we need to go and put it on the chart. Very small premise. I haven't found any software that gave me the possibility of putting warnings on the same chart to check the price of the share, so I created it for myself.
I use Gloria Time because I find it good. I also recommend Scream. Actually, I don't know if there are other software that do this. I haven't seen that on Trading View it gives you the possibility of net in per share and only that on a chart under a different chart and this is not good for our needs.
Now we're going to see once opened in real time, we're going to take our total action as you see here above and we're going to place it anyway. Time felli a month and with a horizon of about 10 years. What do we need to do? We need to go and take the our lines later aside that I have already prepared it and to go and see the growth of our profit from the beginning of 2014 onwards why I chose the percentage because Peterlin in his examples takes into account on the right axis and the price of the share while on the left axis the price of the earnings since it is a fairly difficult procedure the important thing is that both the earnings and the share grow in equal percentage which then have the real value of the profit value relation to us it does not matter let's always base ourselves on the percentages as we can see the first quarter of 2014 the profit fell by 9.24 let's place it in the first quarter of 2014 in January we have a drop to 9.4 subsequently we have minus 1.85 for the following quarter we continue therefore to do in June minus subsequently minus 5.66 and so on we must try to continue and get up to the present day so I had already done all this calculation and I show it to you here as you can see we start from a minus 9.22 then it goes down it goes down then every now and then it goes up as you can see when the price of the stock goes up he also asks however it goes up slightly it is always more or less a mirror what is it that we can understand when our black line is higher than the current price of the stock we can be faced with a possible margin of safety in this case total has always been overweighted compared to the earnings to the growth of earnings in fact as you can see when at this moment dear at this point the earnings have fallen by 40 percent but the stock has fallen much more markedly so this is the margin of safety of Peter Lynch now I will show you some photos of the margin of safety of the years 90s of the 80s that you can find in the book of Peter Lynch and look how always the price of the stock in the long term goes from getting closer and closer to the earnings of the company itself as you can see both in labor this we always have a constant costume a constant growth Wall Mart instead has always been around the 90s always a little overvalued but if we instead go to look at the energy companies and this is also the reason why I chose the energy sector Edison we have an undervaluation of the stock in the years between 1973 and 1993 in which the price grew much more than the profit.
This is because the price has always gotten closer and closer to the profit yield. The same thing for Entergy Corporation as for Long Island. Likely, let's also look at another company. I've also studied it and it will come out in my next video. In our case, this company is Nestlé. Here too, we have a fairly reasonable margin of safety.
In this case, we find that we started around 2012. We have growth. Here, we have a first anomaly. I say we have a first anomaly because we obviously need to understand why there is this 67 percent increase in profit. It could be that the company sold a part of a branch of the company and therefore the capital gain generated such a high profit.
However, perhaps the market depreciated it, and in fact, let's say the market was quite right because the following year, profit practically returned to where it was before, after which it rose and then dropped slightly. In the long term, let's say that today, Nestlé seems truly overvalued. This is a fantastic example of Peter Nicia's margin of safety.
so trying to recap how to find the safety margin of picar lynch in veil the scheme that we are in these points the first point is to find the sectors that have performed in the worst way in the last period I entrust you open source etf once we have found these sectors we must go to understand and find the best companies within these sectors that will surely be able to emerge first with better returns from our crises once this is done we must go and take the latest profits of the companies we can go and take the annual profits or even the quarterly profits it would be better to see our graph better visually once this is done we go and take the graph of the stock and we go to put on the graph in percentage the growth of the profit with the cristo or the decrease in the profit and we go to compare it with the growth with the decrease always in percentage of our action once mercy all the profits on the graph we will find ourselves with two lines the line of the profits and the line of the price if the line of the profits is higher than the line of the price then we are faced with a possible undervaluation of our action because the profit has grown in b in percentage in a greater way than the price and therefore in the long run theoretically the price should match the profit because this thing here is not enough it only serves as a step to understand if there is a margin of safety because as we saw in Nestlé we have to go to understand why there is this difference between profit and price there was this difference so I go back to the previous discussion and fundamental in this case to study the company to understand what happened within the company of the company but I find it a valid visual method to understand if we are faced with a margin of safety or not I with this video I simply wanted to review a bit of Peter Lynch's investment margin of safety which you can find everything is written in here and I leave you the link to purchase the video in the comments let me know what you think and above all if you have ever used the initial strategy of investing in excellent companies that are coming out of bad times so I have received please give a like write a comment if there is something that is not clear to me I am very happy to answer you subscribe to the channel and we will see you in the next video HI
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