Charlie Munger Explains Where You Should Invest $100K

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멍거는 $30조 규모 미국 시장에서 이해도 높은 곳을 찾는 것이 유리하다고 보며, 신흥시장도 배제하지 않는다고 말함. 15~20년 전 한국 소형 저평가주를 소액 매수한 경험을 언급. 버크셔의 미래 모습은 예측 불가하며 주주 중심 경영을 강조. 특별배당보다 자사주 매입을 선호하고, 과거 주주 투표에서 배당 요구가 47대1로 부결된 사실을 언급. 전체적으로 구체적 단기 가격 전망 발언은 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. If I were working with a billion, I would probably find within a $30 trillion market in the United States where I understood uh things better just generally than I do around the world. I'd probably find find opportunities there that would be better incidentally by some margin than what we can find for hundreds of billions.

02. Uh but I wouldn't there's no way I'd rule out emerging markets. There was a time 15 years ago or so uh when just because it was kind of interesting and it took me back to my youth. I on a weekend I went through a a directory of Korean stocks and I I bought and these were small stocks. Uh well they were small by the standards of of either Korean or American business.

03. They were big big companies. But I found 15 or 20 and that were statistically cheap and bought some of each one myself. And and there there are opportunities with smaller amounts of money to do things that we just can't do. Uh uh but I my first inclination always would be to comb through uh things in the United States and and uh but I'd comb through in other countries.

04. I probably wouldn't get into very very small markets because uh there can be a lot of difficulties even in market execution and taxation. a lot of things you can find if you can't find it in, you know, in America and China and Britain and a few other places. You probably aren't going to find it someplace else.

05. You may think you found it, but there may be it may be a different game. And you know, uh, our problem is size, not geography. Charlie, well, I already have more stocks in China than you do as a percentage. So I'm with the young lady. Okay. Well, you can you want to name names? Do these stocks have names or?

06. No, I don't. The world knows generally how the looks of Berkshire Hathway have changed since you began to run the company in 1965. Birkshire was then a tiny northeastern textile company and now it is the number four company on the Fortune 500. What about the next 50 years? Could you give us your view of what Bergkshire looks like in 2068?

07. I think it'll look a long way away. The No, the answer is I don't know. And I didn't know 50 years ago what it would look like now. I mean it it uh it will be based on certain principles but where that leads and we will find out and we'll have people that are thinking about different things than I am and we'll have a world that's different and but uh uh we will be I very much hope and believe and we will be that we'll be as shareholder oriented as any large company in the world.

08. uh we will look at our shareholders as partners and and we will be trying to do with our money exactly what we do would do with our own not seeking to get an edge on them and who knows what what else will be happening then uh Charlie well I want to talk to the younger shareholders in the group those of you who after we are gone sell your Birkshire stock and do something else with it helped by your many friends.

09. I think you're going to do worse. So I would advise you to keep the faith. Well, by the way, some of that has already happened in many families. I'll give his answer next time now that I see it get all the applause. Would you consider a one-time special dividend as a means for returning capital to shareholders?

10. Well, if we thought we couldn't use capital effectively, we would figure we would try to figure out the most effective way of returning capital uh to shareholders. And you could I I would have probably a uh I think it'd be unlikely we'd do it by a special dividend. I think it'd be more likely we'd do it by a repurchase if the repurchase didn't result in us paying a price above intrinsic value per share.

11. We're never going to do anything that we think is harmful to continuing shareholders. So we think the stock is uh intrinsically worth X and we would have to pay some multiple some modest multiple even above that to repurchase shares. We wouldn't do it because we would be hurting continuing shareholders uh to uh uh to the benefit of the people who are getting out.

12. But we will try and do whatever makes the most sense but not with the idea that we have to we have to do something every day because we simply can't find something that day. We we had a vote as you know uh I don't know a few few years back on whether people wanted the dividend and uh uh the Bshares uh so we're not talking my shares or Charlie's or anything but the B shares voted 47 to1 uh against it.

13. So I I think uh through self- selection of who become shareholders uh I don't I don't think shareholders world or countrywide on all stocks would vote 47 to1 at all but we get self- selection in terms of who joins us and I think they expect us to do whatever we think makes the sense for all shareholders and uh um obviously if we really thought we never could use the money effectively in the business.

14. Uh we should get it out one way or another. And uh uh you've got a bunch of directors who own significant uh very significant amounts of stock themselves and uh you can expect them to think like owners. That's the reason they're on the board. And you can expect the management to think like owners and uh owners will will return money uh to all of the owners if they think it it makes more sense uh than continuing uh to look for things to do.

15. But we we invested in the first quarter maybe have to look it up on the well certainly through April. uh probably close to 15 billion or something like that net. So, and and uh we won't always be in a world of very low interest rates nor high or high private market prices. Uh, so we will do what makes the most sense, but I I can't see us ever making a special or almost it's very unlikely we would just pay out a big special dividend.

16. I I think that if we put that to the vote of the shareholders and Charlie and I did not vote, I think we would get a big negative vote and I'd be willing to to uh be willing to make a bet on that one. Charlie. Well, as long as the existing system continues to work as well as it has, why would we change it?

17. We've got a whole lot of people that are accustomed to it, who've done well under it, and and if conditions change, why we're capable of changing our minds if the facts change. And we've done that several times. Yes. Yeah. Although I must say it's a little hard. Uh, it always brings me back to Earth. Okay, station six.