Raamdeo Agrawal: Stock Market Will Reward The Diligent Investor

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한줄결론: 인도 증시는 강세지만 단기 방향 예측은 어렵고, 장기(3~5년)로는 낙관적이며 선별 투자가 중요하다는 입장. 시장 상황: 최근 인도 증시는 예상보다 강하며, 채권 등 고정수익 매력이 낮아 자금이 주식형 뮤추얼펀드로 이동 중이다. 국내 자금 유입이 시장을 떠받치고 있다. 중앙은행 정책: 인도준비은행(RBI)의 금리 동결은 예상 밖이었다. 물가 상승률 3.2%로 식량 공급이 좋아 인플레이션 완화 신호는 있으나, 글로벌 원자재 가격 상승 등으로 향후 물가가 오를 수 있어 금리 인하 여지는 제한적이라는 시각. 기업 이슈: 인포시스 등 IT 기업의 지배구조 문제가 불거졌으며, 창업 세대에서 전문경영인 세대로의 전환 과정으로 해석했다. 시장 전망: 1개월~1년 단위의 단기 예측은 어렵다. 지난 30~35년간 연 15% 복리 수익을 냈지만 이 수준이 계속된다는 근거는 없다. 3~5년 전망은 매우 긍정적이다. 투자 전략: 인도에서 빠르게 성장하는 기업이 많이 나올 것이며, 포트폴리오에 15~20개 종목을 담아 수익을 낼 수 있다고 본다. 이 시장은 운이 좋은 투자자가 아니라 좋은 종목을 고르는 실력 있는 투자자의 시장이다.

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01. thanks for joining us at Bloomberg we demand conversations Ramdev I Love Lucy Lawless well done many thanks for joining us what do you believe how do you think the market the position at this point in time coming as it does after the budget and the RBI RBI holding policy weeks yeah so my mother in very strong situation I'm an unexpectedly very strong but the summer than we ever thought and I'm a founder / øx have done even 15-20 percent you do return in last one right so this is very unusually strong market and we were thinking that the moderation is going to have slightly humbled reserve language which is being right in the sense that the result couples are somewhat subdued but probably because down you know the fixed income is looking not so attractive you know and people are likely to shift a lot of money from physical equities and the flows into mutual funds in India for the first time last one in four months the domestic flow is bigger than a five snow and that pull so that pull from the domestic side is keeping the market very strong and markets are doing very well we've seen the Reserve Bank of India hold on to policy rates which is which came as a bit of a surprise what did you make of it and do you believe that the window for lowering rates is over yeah so loading was a kind of a very low priority or maybe there was a conflict whether it will be lowered or not so that is not a disappointment I think the the Veni stands Winky looks to be lending premature and probably they know it better they have all the economists and everything but I thought with 3.2 percent the back of the insulation is finally broken we're good monster good supply of food grains so that's what my simple thing he was but probably the global factors of swim in the global commodity prices all the global economics coming back which is a much bigger news that's what has kept this guy's probably to keep the rate at the same level and instead caution them that in the next quadrants and all the inflation could actually look up and they might be late to the operation you've been a big you know investor bullish on India's IT sector companies like Infosys ntps we have seen governance issues cropping instances in the last couple of days what is your reading of the situation and the mudra spectator on the this thing but it's sad I mean we have transition of you know one generation moving to the immense particularly when you manage your companies that closely and then when it moves to the next generation which is very professional so how how you let go full 100% I think that's just about to happen but before that there's a last thing up but I wish it was not there what's my equation and this is about the trajectory of the market what do you what do you think is going to define the trajectory of markets here on what factors will influence the move up as I said the market is stronger than what I thought so actually predicting the very short-term one month six months even a year is becoming very deferred longer-term I don't know markets have done about 15 percent compounded for last 30 35 years I don't have any reason to believe that this same 12 16 percent sounds like I will not be honored so I am pretty sure that three to five years outlook is very good but I think money will be made even shorter than there are always few companies which will do very well there will be always a good frontier this is this is possible a lot of fast growing companies will come out of India I called it up we have to find 1520 companies in our portfolio and make money the last three has been very rewarding and I am quite sure the four diligent investor there is a this mockery of fantastic markets it's not a market for the four lucky guys those who want to be lucky it's not for them it is for the skill guys who can pick right stocks and build a nice portfolio and make money thank you so much