저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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Mobius의 결론: 인도 경제 데이터는 신뢰할 만하며, 모디 정책 효과로 인도 경제가 본격 도약 직전이라고 봄. 거시 및 데이터 신뢰성: 인도 GDP 수치(최근 발표)가 정확하다고 믿으며, 중국 데이터도 마찬가지로 신뢰. 아르헨티나 사례처럼 정부가 수치를 조작하면 현장에서 금방 드러난다고 주장. 외국인 투자 전망: 해외직접투자 유입은 유지되거나 증가할 것으로 봄. 포트폴리오 투자는 단기 자본이득세 때문에 직접투자만큼 빠르게 늘지 않을 수 있음. 세제와 투자 편의 등 정책에 크게 좌우. 밸류에이션: 인도 시장은 전반적으로 여전히 매력적이며, 개혁이 이익에 반영되면 흥미로운 기회라고 평가. 다만 증권사 리포트(코어텍)가 시장이 이미 충분히 올랐다고 본 점은 언급됨. 인도 시장이 신흥시장 전반 부진에 눌려 있었지만 자금 유입으로 변화할 것이라 봄. 섹터: 복합기업(conglomerate), 은행(경제 성장과 은행 개혁, 미은행 인구 대상 성장 기회), 제약, 기술, 소재가 유망. 인도 철강, 정유, 석유가스 기업은 종목 선별 접근 필요. 저소득층까지 접근하는 기업이 매력적. 소형주: 신흥시장 시가총액의 약 27%가 소형주라고 언급. 자신들은 주로 상장 전(pre-IPO)·사모투자 중심으로 투자하며, 인도 운용자산 약 20억 달러 중 약 1/3이 소형주이고 대부분 사모 및 파이프딜. 좋은 경영진, 배당 성향(예: 이익의 30% 배당), 설비투자, 해외확장 등을 중시. 인프라 관련 기업이 유망. 리스크: 모리셔스 조세협약 변경은 외국인 투자자에게 부정적이며 장기 투자자인 자신들은 영향이 적으나 오픈엔드 펀드 환매 때문에 단기 매매가 필요해 불리하다고 봄. 자본이득세를 거래세로 바꾸는 것이 더 나은 해법이라고 주장. 라구람 라잔 중앙은행 총재 후임 문제는 인물에 따라 초기 부정적 영향이 있을 수 있으나 유능한 중립 인사라면 영향은 크지 않을 것이라 봄. 출연자 전망 요약: 인도 주식 및 경제에 대해 장기적으로 낙관적.
다듬은 글
let's talk about India you've come just what a day or two after we had some very good GDP growth numbers yes um again in India people are asking a lot of questions of that data you know some of that data indicates that there is a discrepancy factor that's added considerably to that GDP number if you look at the GBA number it's at 7.2 considerably lower do you believe the Indian GDP data let me ask you that oh yeah I definitely believe it and I believe the Chinese data you must remember we're in a situation now where things are much more transparent you and I can travel all over China and observe what's going on and the same thing is true here in India governments need data that is accurate and it becomes very apparent very quickly when the data is not accurate if you remember the case in Argentina yes you know they the government wanted to make up inflation numbers it just didn't work people were creating their own numbers and looking at what was happening on the ground so I do believe that the Indian numbers are correct and the Chinese numbers are correct as well in the case of India we're now at the cusp of a real take off of the Indian economy I think Modi's policies and stance and philosophy are gonna start feeding in to the economy in an accelerating pace and that's going to have a terrific impact do you see these foreign investment inflows sustaining more in fact even accelerating or increasing I think it would be sustaining and maybe increasing but in particular areas in the portfolio area they may not grow as fast as the direct investment here if you mean okay and a lot of that depends on government policies regarding taxes and ease of investment for example as you know with the capital short term capital gains tax it's somewhat a deterrent for portfolio investors correct at these levels do you find the Indian markets interesting to invest in and I know I suspect you're going to say it depends on which company you're talking about yeah but you know I was reading a few brokers reports and for instance core tech which is domestic brokerage has mentioned that they thought that the markets were fully valued at this point in time I don't think it's more enough too much actually India has been held back because of the general emerging markets the performance you must remember you know when the big investors come into these markets they usually buy a portfolio which includes India if they're not putting money in India will not get the money just like China will I get it so I think India has been somewhat held back because of the macro picture the emerging markets up to now this I think is going to be changing and you're gonna see more money coming in to India okay but from a styling evaluation point of view valuations are still attractive and if you factor in the reforms that are taking place and the impact that could have on earnings this then you're at the cusp of a very very interesting opportunity you've traditionally been very letting invested strongly in IT in financials in India right now which sectors industries areas do you see opportunity and both from you know sort of a growth point of view and from a valuation point of view well if you look at our portfolios you'll see conglomerates in other words companies that have have their fingers in a number of pies are pretty high on the list of what we have banks are in there because obviously the economy growing at this pace and the banking reform taking place is very very positive and the fact that such a big segment of the population is not banked yet so there's big growth opportunities there and then the obvious pharmaceuticals which looks very good and technology you know materials as well given the bullish view you have on commodities like for instance Indian steel companies or refiners or oil and gas companies on a very selective basis I wouldn't take an industry-wide view on that because there's so many wrinkles in the individual company's strategy and outlook is there anything that you like uniformly is there any more detail you could give us on what kind of companies or investments but I would say any company that can access the consumer in all all levels low-end high-end medium and those those companies would be the ones that are very very interesting for us because per capita incomes of rising you're getting the lower-income groups becoming bankable with bank accounts with the ID system you're getting a thorough of new events taking place in the lowest income segments so I'd say any company that can access that group would be very interesting I want to talk a little bit about small caps because you wrote a very interesting blog I think last year at some point only part of 2015 on the opportunity in small stars I think as you called it and and some data in that blog caught my attention they constitute about 27% of the emerging markets market capitalization 21,000 more small cap companies versus large cap companies and then you went on to say in that blog that in India for example small caps are generally trading at a discount to large caps much of this investment money is what we'd call lazy money or passive investment money concentrated in large-cap index stocks that are not only more expensive but subject to volatility etc etc have you been investing in small caps in India yes we've been doing private equity investing we focus in the private equity on pre IPO and pipe deals you know companies that are listed that need extra capital and we've been finding some terrific companies in fact just this morning I met with one group that makes cables and oils for lubricants and they're doing very very well can you give us some idea of how what your exposure to India's Indian small caps would likely be see we've got about in our group emerging markets group I can only talk about our emerging markets group two billion in India and I would say maybe one-third is small cap and one and that one third is private equity and part deals a public would be very small so most of it is five to ten percent the rest would be you know regular and listed stocks portfolio investments okay what do you typically look for in the small cap companies that Universal India both from an opportunity point of view and from point of view if you can talk us through that and any specific sectors that you found most interesting in small-cap India's it's a big country it's like China there's so many things going on that you really can't focus on one particular sector there's so many things you can look at but the example I just mentioned the types of fact the cable company there's so much infrastructure being built now in India anything any company that supplies infrastructure projects will do pretty well there's a good opportunity let's put it that way what do we look for we look for good management number one most importantly very important companies that are run by people that know their business and are interested in growth but are also very responsible to the shareholders so for example the company I just mentioned they're paying out 30% of their earnings of dividends every year they've been very very active in capital investment improving their manufacturing and they've been expanding overseas so I mean is the kinds of people we like to deal with who would like to be invested in and you said a third of 2 billion dollars is invested in small capsule the view is that does that one third represent a substantial increase over the last few years have you been increasingly investing in small we have because we have a dedicated small cap funds correct and they've been growing so you know we've been putting more money in okay speaking of India there are two controversial issues that I want to talk to you about one is the changes that India is affecting to the tax treaty with Mauritius you spoke very how do I put it cautiously about it when it the news first broke and I think you said and if I quote you correctly you said I'm positive on the Indian markets for local investors but not so much for foreign investors with this tax regime you still sound very optimistic about India in the last few minutes do you really believe that this change and the Mauritius tax treaty is going to dent the ability of foreign investors to invest in India because otherwise you've painted a very optimistic picture and in fact the markets are taking this change in their strong yeah it definitely is gonna impact a number of investors it doesn't impact us as much because we are long-term investors but I would say that you know long-term is a very relative thing when you're dealing with open-ended funds and I think there's one thing the government papery doesn't realize I mean we are long-term investors we are average holding period of five years but we're running open-ended funds and these open-ended funds sometimes require us to buy one day and sell the next because we have redemptions or whatever coming in so I would say that if they could eliminate the capital gains tax and replace it with a turnover tax that would be a much better solution because it's a level playing field foreigners locals overseas the Indians get treated all the same fair enough last question and this is awardees the governor of the Central Bank of India which is Raghu Ram Rajan if for some reason Dharam Rajan does not continue after his three-year term comes to an end how much of a negative impact do you think that's going to have on the perception of India amongst foreign investors and do you expect that to have a big impact on India's equity markets it will definitely have a negative impact in my view but it probably would not be lasting depending on who they put in that position if they can put in a an equally capable neutral person a non-political person then the impact will not be significant but I think the initial impact will be probably negative all right mark we've come to the end of our questions thank you so much for your time and thank you for speaking with Bloomberg Quint thank you thank you
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