저자: LuanLincoln · 외국인
요약 보기
가치투자가 장기적으로 시장을 이기는 가장 확실한 전략이며, 가격을 무시하는 성장주 투자나 추천 중심 투자는 위험하다는 영상. 가치투자의 개념: 벤저민 그레이엄이 창시하고 워런 버핏이 계승한 투자 철학으로, '현명한 투자자'에 소개된 미스터 마켓 개념(시장은 단기적으로 비이성적이지만 장기적으로 정상화됨)을 기반으로 한다. 효율적 시장 가설 비판: 시장이 단기적으로 가격 오류를 만들며, 자산을 내재가치보다 싸게 사는 것이 핵심이다. 그레이엄은 내재가치를 장부가치로 보았고, 미국에서는 이런 저평가 종목이 드물어 해외 투자 시 주의가 필요하다고 설명. 성장투자 비판: 가격이 높아도 성장하면 된다는 성장투자 철학은 시장 가격이 옳다는 전제에 기대며, 운이 많이 필요하고 성공하려면 세 가지 조건이 충족되어야 한다는 하워드 막스의 견해를 인용. 사례 - 은행 저평가: 브라질 Banco do Brasil이 PER 약 4배로 Ibovespa 평균 10배 이상보다 낮아 왜곡 가능성이 있다고 언급(매수·매도 추천 아님). 사례 - 고평가 경고: 시장 인플루언서가 추천하는 Cash3 계열 종목이 500배 이상 이익 대비 가격으로 거래된다고 지적하며, 가치 원칙을 따르지 않는다고 비판. 또 다른 종목은 PER 16배, 배당 3%로 비싸지 않다고 설명. 대형 증권사 경고: BofA, JP모건 등 대형 투자은행의 추천은 시장 조작 목적일 수 있으니 주의하라고 경고하며, 매도 추천 후 매수 추천을 하는 패턴을 예로 들었다. 결론: 숫자에 기반한 가치투자만이 장기적으로 일관된 수익을 준다는 메시지. 자금이 제한된 개인에게 도박식 투기보다 낫다고 권고.
다듬은 글
Greetings, everyone! How are you all doing ? Remember to click the subscribe button before continuing to help this channel, okay? And in this video I'm going to bring up this topic for you: the best investment strategy. Although there are several branches, I will mention here the two main ones, which are the philosophies, we could say, that are the mothers, with regard to investments.
So, let's get to them. The first of these is value investing. This school of investment was spearheaded and widely disseminated initially by Benjamin Graham, who is the father of Deep Value Investing. The way Warren Buffett's mentor invested in his life as an investor is very well explained in this book, "The Intelligent Investor," which is one of the world's biggest bestsellers in finance and investing.
It's very interesting that we can extract from this book that idea of Mr. Market, who is a crazy, deranged being who every day wants to offer you the same asset at different prices, often quite far apart from one day to the next in the short term, but who, fortunately, tends to normalize in the long term.
And what investors should do is precisely take advantage of market frenzies when pricing errors occur. As you can see, this theory assumes that the market makes pricing errors in the short term . In other words, she questions the efficient market theory, which in economics means a market where prices discount everything, that is, where all the information in the market is in the price.
It's as if the price currently on the market is the fair price, and the market is sovereign. The market never makes mistakes. This would be the efficient market theory. Value investing is not believed in, or at the very least, questions. And what does a value investor look for? It seeks assets below their intrinsic value.
And what is this business of intrinsic value that nobody explains? Initially, in the book "The Intelligent Investor," it becomes very clear that for Benjamin Graham, intrinsic value is the book value of a stock. Therefore, from a classical perspective, it is sufficient for a stock to be trading below its book value.
What's worth mentioning is that it's very rare in the United States, so be careful with investing abroad; this could be a good value investment opportunity . However, due to the growth of the North American market, its significant expansion, and the current strong tendency to inflate prices in the North American market because it is considered the most reliable in the world, it is very difficult to simply apply this investment philosophy to that market.
Instead, you need to look for intrinsic value using other evaluation methods. Simply looking at net asset value is very difficult nowadays, except in Brazil where it's still possible to apply this, because you know that the market in Brazil is extremely volatile. And it is in Howard Marx's book, the most important for investors, that he explains very well how psychologically difficult it is nowadays to evaluate a company and then conclude that it is below its intrinsic value.
Even if you conclude that a company is worth 50 and it's trading at 30, it could fall to 20 and you'll start to question it. But in the long term, fortunately, all distortions are corrected. As Howard Marx so aptly put it , in the long run, common sense always wins. As for the short term, you know, it's the result of speculation, manipulation, greed, or fear.
I'll give you an example without making a buy or sell recommendation, showing what value investing would look like today. I'll take the Banco do Brasil case. Here in Brazil, right? Currently, this stock is trading at four times earnings. The Ibovespa average is above 10 times earnings. What do you notice there?
A distortion. Is Banco do Brasil really only worth that much ? Is the price of the screen, the price it's on the market today, correct? It is on these occasions that the value investor enters the scene. On the other hand, we have the other aspect, which is growth investment, also called growth investing.
What does this investment school preach? that the price doesn't matter, that no matter how stretched the stock's multiples are, Vid, for example, Vego, is expanding, increasing its profitability and infinitely increasing its revenue . Soon the price will follow this growth. You soon realize that this philosophy is based on the assumption that the market price, however overvalued it may seem, should not worry the investor, as the asset will rise for a long time.
An investor in Magalu, for example, should think this way. We can also say that this philosophy does not believe in pricing errors. If the market is saying that Veg is trading at 50 times earnings, then it's because it's right. Part of the premise is that the market is sovereign and that you, as an investor, don't have to go looking for bargains, but for companies that are, in quotes, good.
Howard Marx, in this book here, which I recommend reading, is very good. He says that Grof's investor strategy will only succeed if three factors are met. And what are they? A lot of luck, after all, obviously it's possible to be lucky in the market, not for many years, but for a short period of time, yes.
He'll get it right soon. For example, those who invested in Melios' IPO early on were right; it took a lot of work, and you have to constantly monitor the market in a very professional manner. And you, on the other side of the screen, probably don't have time for this, or have an investment sense that's much above average.
I mean, to be a financial market genius like Warren Buffett. So, if you're not a genius like Warren Buffett, perhaps it's best to acknowledge your mediocrity and actually move on to the strategy that, in the long run, always beats the market average, which is value investing. It's worth mentioning that this strategy is adopted by Howard Marx and George Glimbot, who also has this very good book here, "The Magic Formula to Beat the Stock Market." So here's my message.
Be very careful with those investors or YouTubers who say that price doesn't matter. It does matter. Ultimately, you need profitability. It 's not simply about buying a good company. Do you think Veg ouv will break? Or even alu? I don't think so. But am I going to buy expensive companies just because they're good?
That's the idea. Nobody makes money that way. There are great fund managers like Howard Marx, to prove me right ; they themselves acknowledge that it's very difficult to beat the market, especially if you don't adopt a value investing philosophy. I would also like to issue a warning about recommendations from research firms and large investment banks, such as Bank of America, BofA, and JP Morgan.
Why? Because they are, and this is the truth, the great market manipulators. You can fix it, start fixing it. Often, an asset like Petrobras receives a sell recommendation from these large banks. And perhaps in the same month or the following month, within a short space of time, they say it's time to buy.
And why do you think they do that? Because they want to buy cheaply from the gullible sardines who are selling at any price because they recommended selling. Then, after they've bought it, they recommend buying it precisely so they can make money from it, and you always end up losing money. So that's why this is one of Liro Parisoto's commandments.
Stay away from whomever. Even if it's from a large bank like Bank of America, it's clear from afar that I obviously follow the value investing philosophy , because that's what really works consistently in the long term. It doesn't depend on a game of chance like other philosophies that are more focused on speculation.
And look, for those with limited resources, like most people, it might be better to invest your money in the stock market using a method that actually works in the long run, rather than trying to gamble on luck and hoping for a burst of gains, but often also a burst of losses. Your money is hard-earned and difficult to succeed, especially in Brazil, so you shouldn't put it into the stock market and risk losing it.
Therefore, if you followed the right approach, as Barce says, it's impossible to lose money in the stock market. And let me show you here, for example, Cash 3 Amélios, which Thiago Nigro himself invests in and many people bought along with him, to see if it really is cheap. This bill is a joke. It trades at over 500 times profit.
Do you have the courage to buy this business? It's clear that Thiago Negro, who is the most influential guy of all, doesn't follow value investing principles. How does he think this is worth this much? There is no way to. Pick it up here too. EV, skin of 16 and dividend of 3%. It 's not cheap, man. There are many small fish out there on the stock exchange that are trading at multiples that are much, much lower.
Why would you buy the worst one just because of a little tip? Does it have the best? And the best part, I mean the cheapest. You need to start eliminating subjectivity from your investments and rely solely on the numbers. In the long run, this makes all the difference. The market can't ignore very cheap assets for long , because at a certain stage, those assets are already expensive, inflated, or those are bubbles, and people won't be able to make money anymore, because it will have reached a ceiling where it's no longer possible to profit.
So where are they going to put their money? Perhaps fixed income or stocks that had been forgotten by the market. Therefore, think about this very carefully. Well, folks, that's the message of the video. Thank you so much for staying with me until now. I'm Luan, and this is the Mirar Investin channel. Until the next video. I went.
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