저자: LuanLincoln · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현재 상승 중인 이보베스파는 아직 저평가 구간이나 PER 10배 이하까지 기다려야 한다는 신중론이며, 브래스켐 은행주 중 브래스코는 저평가 매력이 있으나 장기 보유보다는 기회성 매매에 적합하다고 본다. 이보베스파·경제지표: 이보베스파 116,000pt 부근 유지, 목표 진입 구간은 PER 10배 이하, 현재 PER 6.27배. 과거 PER 5배 이하 반등 후 이익 감소로 PER이 다시 상승한 사례를 근거로 신중. 17~20배 이상이면 자산 일부 현금화 필요. IPCA는 횡보, IGPM은 9월 예비 기준 0.5% 하락. 외국인 자금: 8월 외국인 자금 순유출 지속, 고금리로 자금이 채권형(LCI·LCA 등)에 머묾. 주식시장이 12만pt를 넘으려면 이 자금이 위험자산으로 이동해야 함. 브래스코(Bradesco): 헤지펀드 Hard Marx 계열 펀드가 950만 주 매수(지분 약 44% 증가)로 저평가 판단 근거 제시. P/B 기준 Itaú·Santander 대비 할인, 배당수익률은 Santander보다 높음. 다만 이익 감소와 신용 품질 열위로 장기 보유보다 기회 매매 권고. 아메리카나스 분식회계 분쟁 관련 법적 이슈 언급. 브래스파(Bradespar): 연방국세청 과징금 8억 헤알 부과, 주가 약 1% 하락. 브래스코는 이의 제기 예정. 발레(VALE3): 현재 68헤알, PER 약 6배. 철광석 116~117달러 안정. 상단 목표 70헤알 유지, 75 돌파 시에도 청산하지 않겠다는 입장, 철광석 175~190달러 도달 시 청산 고려. 62헤알 이하 콜 매도(행사가 61 또는 60) 전략 언급. 은행주 비교: 이타우·산탄데르·브랑코두브라질 중 이타우와 BB 선호. BB는 배당 정책(격월 배당, 40% 배당성향) 언급. 출연자 전망 요약: 이보베스파 단기 추가 상승 가능하나 중장기로 10배 PER 구간까지 보수적, 브래스코는 반등 기대하나 장기 보유 비선호, 발레는 70헤알 상단 제시.
다듬은 글
In this video, I'm going to bring you information related to the Ibovespa and Brazilian inflation, an accusation involving Americanas and Bradesco, and I'll also discuss Bradesco and Vale. So come with me, greetings everyone! Remember to click the subscribe button below to help this channel. Currently, the Ibovespa is rising.
At this moment, Petrobras, Vale, and retail stocks are also rising. Despite this, inflation data for this year shows no increase, mainly due to fuel prices. This is in relation to the IPCA. Regarding the IGPM, it fell half a percent in the first preliminary reading for September. Therefore, rents tend not to be adjusted by the IGPM next year but by the IPCA, otherwise there will be deflation.
Real estate funds and bricks, for the most part, are already protecting themselves against this rare phenomenon in Brazil, but which has been happening with the IGPM. Despite this rise, foreign capital flow is still quite negative. Just look at the amount of foreign capital that left in August. In this way, the Ibovespa is still holding up at 116,000 points.
The right time to invest is when the Bovespa price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 6.27 times. I've noticed the following: We were at a level below five times earnings, and what ended up happening was a rise in the Ibovespa, a small rally, but mainly a drop in company profits. And that ended up inflating the price-to-earnings ratio.
Therefore, the stock market may not even rise, and yet the price-to-earnings ratio may still end up rising. For me, the right time to invest in the Ibovespa is up to the region of ten times earnings. Above that, we reach the Ibovespa's trading average, and then the upside is very small. Of course, you can continue investing in some companies that you see as opportunities, but from there on, there should be a reduction in the size of investments in variable income, at least in the Brazilian stock market, with the exception of dividend payouts, which should always occur, not necessarily in the same company, but within your portfolio without making withdrawals.
Unless you are already selling income, and eventually, cash should only be realized through dividends when the Ibovespa, and if that happens, is above 17, 18, or even 20 times earnings, a level that obviously ends up... Not supporting the Iboves index in relation to Americanas, it refuted arguments from Ace or Miguel Gutierrez, saying that he, along with Bradesco, even falsified Americanas' balance sheets.
There is a legal dispute involving Bradesco and Americanas. This topic is appearing in various news outlets, and Americanas published a statement to the market addressing this accusation involving Bradesco, Americanas, and Ace or Americanas. According to Americanas, the former company director, Miguel Gutierrez, did not present any counter-evidence at any point in the process to the documents and facts presented to the CPI on June 13, 2003, which demonstrate his participation in the fraud.
Furthermore, Americanas emphasizes that all claims were substantiated by evidence and regrets that Bradesco's position is not shared by other creditor banks of the company, which remain committed to a consensus regarding the judicial recovery plan. So, Bradesco is the one fighting the most here, including against this very serious accusation involving these companies.
Despite all this accusation, Bradesco is not falling; in fact, it is rising in Presidente Prudente, while Americanas is obviously falling, but not as much. The rise in Bradesco's stock is obviously due to a certain market optimism at the moment. The Ibovespa index tends to pull banks and the largest positions in the index itself along, but another phenomenon that may also be generating a rise in Bradesco's stock today is the fact that Hard Marx recently increased his opposition to the company through his fund.
Within the portfolio, this fund, managed by Hard Marx – a super fund manager – shows a significant purchase of 9.5 million Bradesco shares, an increase in position of around 44%. In other words, Hard Marx believes that Bradesco has become too cheap. Remember that Hard Marx is a credit specialist, and his fund is known for excellent investment decisions in underdepreciated credit securities in the market.
So, in Hard Marx's view, he obviously believes that Bradesco has become too cheap, even with all this credit risk and the suffering from the recent credit crisis in the country. But is Bradesco really that cheap? Looking at multiples, only between Itaú and Santander – it's not worth including Banco do Brasil because it's a bank that, at its value...
The embedded state risk is what explains its lower multiples in terms of price-to-book ratio. Why does Itaú perform better? Because Itaú didn't experience a reduction in profits, while Bradesco and Santander did. Now, in terms of the price-to-book ratio, Bradesco and Santander are more discounted, and this is the indicator that Hard Marx obviously takes into account.
After all, he follows the Velou Investing doctrine of seeking value companies, and Bradesco ends up being a value company today; it's a value bank. After all, its multiples here are higher than Velou Invest and more competitive. Because of this, even its dividend yield is higher than Santander's, something that hasn't happened in a long time.
But in terms of quality and efficiency, it's far behind Itaú, which is why you obviously pay less when buying Bradesco now, but your risk is still much higher than buying Itaú. But Hard Marx's strategy is exactly this: to seek companies forgotten by the market to increase positions, given that the market remains pessimistic about Bradesco.
After the publication of balance sheets, the shares plummeted, and the market ends up expecting an improvement. Bradesco, only for the year 2024, as I've already shown you here on the channel, if it weren't for Bradesco's insurance operations, it would have reported a quarterly loss overall. What is my conclusion here regarding Bradesco and also Santander?
And if you follow the line of Factor Investing, for example, Bradesco and Santander didn't show the quality factor, one of Jimmy Fama's five factors. After all, how can you say that Bradesco and Santander have quality within the banking sector if they were the most affected banks, and by a considerable margin compared to Itaú, in terms of credit quality?
This only denotes the inferiority of these banks. I prefer to take the best path, which is why I still have Itaúsa exposure. I don't want to speculate on Bradesco and Santander's recovery because I'm thinking long-term. What guarantees that in the long term, in an unstable macroeconomic environment like Brazil's, Bradesco and Santander won't enter a new crisis?
We could again have movements like these of significant and very high-speed increases, as happened recently in 2021, and this could end up happening again because these two banks, in their eagerness, try to surpass the... Itaú and Santander have become extremely aggressive, so I 'm not saying that Bradesco and Santander won't recover; they probably will.
However, they demonstrated to the market that their management isn't that good and that their credit analysis isn't that good either. Thinking about long-term viability, I'd stick with Itaú and Banco do Brasil, which have demonstrated significant superiority even in the same macroeconomic scenario. And while you might think the market exaggerated with Bradesco and Santander, the truth is that the market ended up hitting those stocks due to concrete factors, concrete facts.
It was precisely their poor balance sheets that caused this. So it wasn't speculation like what happened with Banco do Brasil in 2021 and 2022. After all, Banco do Brasil has been trading sideways here, at 29.00, for a long period even with solid balance sheets, given the market's pessimism regarding Banco do Brasil, especially concerning political risk.
But that risk didn't materialize. Even this year, Banco do Brasil showed that it continues to perform very well; it didn't suffer as much from Americanas. And on top of that, it published a dividend payment schedule. bimonthly and maintaining a payout of 40%. That's why this whole market existed; I couldn't ignore the quality of Banco do Brasil and its superiority compared to other private banks, with the exception of Itaú.
Anyway, this isn't a recommendation again. I do believe that Bradesco and Santander will recover. You could have a good capital gain buying at today's prices, but thinking about long-term ownership, becoming a shareholder, I prefer it to be more like an opportunity to buy now and then sell. It could be a stock at most in an opportunity portfolio, both Bradesco and Santander.
That's my personal view regarding Bradespar; it received a fine of 800 million from the Federal Revenue Service related to income tax and social contribution on net profit. Bradesco disagrees and will discuss this here. Because of this, the shares have fallen, currently falling almost one percent, while Vale's shares are rising almost 2% to 68.
Vale is trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of almost six times, and I've already shown you a video here on the channel, which I'll leave in the card, that the ideal in commodity stocks, as is the case with Vale, is to buy when the EV multiple is clearly rising. So, if you compare it to 2021, you'll notice that this multiple is higher, as is the P/L multiple, which was at 2.92 and is now more than five times higher.
This happens because it's precisely during these moments of higher multiples in commodity stocks that we are probably at the bottom of a downward cycle. This is how large investors who invest in commodity stocks end up analyzing these companies. But of course, it's not enough for this to happen; there can't be a negative multiple on the price or price, there can't be losses, only a reduction in results.
Now, buying when the multiple is very low, two times, one and a half times, then the risk is very high because you are probably at a peak in the cycle, and then you entered too late. Remember that I maintain my current ceiling price at 70 reais for Vale, iron ore has stabilized here at 116-117 dollars, there was a drop, including oil falling a little as well, even so, the Brazilian stock market is rising, indicating that it became very discounted, as I told you at the beginning of this video.
But this very discounted price stems from the fact that... Brazil is a riskier country, but this generates market inefficiency; emerging markets are prone to inefficiency. It's also important to remember that interest rates are still very high in the country, so much so that a lot of people and a lot of capital are still in fixed income; a lot of money is in these L6 and LCAs that are still yielding a lot with income tax exemption.
The stock market will only eventually take off and surpass 120,000 points when this capital moves to riskier assets, which hasn't happened yet. In addition, there will obviously be a more drastic reduction in interest rates and inflation control; all of this reinforces the rise in the stock market anyway, with all of this still unpredictable.
What remains for the investor is simply to buy at favorable price moments. It's worth noting here that Vale is no longer a great bargain at 68; the margin of safety is decreasing. I 'm not saying it's a time to do a covered call, I 'm only saying that if Vale eventually surpasses 75, and even then, I would n't close the position under any circumstances.
I would only consider closing the position when iron ore reaches higher highs here, at $175-$190. When Vale is trading at 120-130 at the same time, it's an excellent time to launch Boots below 62 reais, with a strike price of 61 reais, or even below 60, because below 60 we already see very strong support in Vale, mainly because it's a time when investors are constantly buying back many shares.
It's also worth remembering that Cosan positioned itself in Vale in this price region. If you want to learn more about investing, consider becoming a member of the Mirai Associate channel. Click on "Become a Member," add level 2, and you'll have access to the Mirai Associate Members playlist (82 videos already), plus the chance to have your portfolio analyzed by me in the "Analyzing Portfolios" series (six videos already in this playlist).
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To hire me, just send a message via WhatsApp (link in the description). This comment is pinned, but feel free to leave your opinion in the comments below. Bradesco's prices were too low to ignore, hence the robust positioning from Hard Marx. Thank you for staying with me until the end. I'm Luan from the channel "I Will Invest". See you in the next video.
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