저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
소비자 심리 악화와 Etsy 등 재량소비 기업의 부진을 경기 침체 신호로 본다. 소비 둔화가 GDP의 70%를 차지하는 소비에 타격을 주며, BNPL 연체율 상승, 해고 우려 증가, 비트코인 추세 이탈을 근거로 든다. 시장이 극단적 공포 국면으로 갈 가능성을 말하며 소규모 풋 숏 포지션을 잡기 시작했다고 밝힌다. 인플레 기대는 불확실하지만 CPI 하락 시 숏을 키울 수 있다는 입장.
다듬은 글
I'm worried this is just going to sound doomer and gloomer again, so I really don't want to make this video. I'm really depressed, but I don't feel good right now, both about the economy, which I think is about to go down the pooper, and about what literally just went down the pooper at 4:00 a.m. yesterday. Let's just say I got really sick because I had way too much caffeine.
I told myself I was going to get into a routine where I could stay up all night and finally fix my sleep schedule, because I'd just go to sleep at the appropriate time. But I ended up with caffeine poisoning again, and let's just say it's not pretty. This is the problem with trying to do a Meet Kevin report video in the morning before your 5:25 a.m. live stream, and then you actually have to put the news together for it. That was challenging. It didn't work out well.
This morning I screwed up. After being sick, I didn't wake up on time, and I feel terrible about that. It's entirely my fault. Maybe I can finally figure out how to get this sleep schedule right over the weekend. There's nothing worse than feeling like your sleep schedule has collapsed while you're trying to do more, and you really want to go out for a run and work out, but you've got too much going on.
With all that complaining, and pardon the French, bitching out of the way, let's get into the economy we're in. I'm really concerned. This morning's consumer sentiment numbers are icing on the concern cake, but we started with weak consumer sentiment data, really with Etsy. That's when I really started panicking a little bit, because I saw the Etsy numbers and I'm like, wait a minute. This is Etsy, okay? What do I buy on Etsy? A RuneScape Dragon medium helmet, a RuneScape crossbow, there's a long sword right here, or stuff like this, a dragon dagger. Poison-tipped dragon dagger. Kind of like how I felt yesterday, like somebody stabbed me right in the kidney and poisoned the snot out of me.
But the reality is, I think Etsy is a canary in the coal mine, and I'm really concerned about that. Etsy gave us a really big heads-up about what might end up happening with this morning's consumer sentiment data. I hate to say it, and obviously we'll go through that, but I think people have forgotten that as much as it's fun, GDP can be built up by the military-industrial complex, military spending, Biden Bucks, or artificial intelligence infrastructure spending. When those things go away, I'm really concerned that things are just going to get substantially worse.
Why? Because the consumer makes up 70% of the economy. I think we've forgotten that we're not like China, where the consumer makes up less than half of the economy, and their economy is in the pooper too, mostly driven by the fraud of the real estate bubble they created. But consider this for a moment, in case you haven't seen it. I'll give you a quick run-through.
Etsy, in their earnings call, I thought, all right, look, the stock has been declining forever. Maybe, just maybe, they'll give us some kind of hope that the pain is about to be over. It's kind of like the solar folks, you had, what was it, SunRun or whatever, that told us, hey, we're confident Q1 is the bottom and things are finally going to get better. Great, that's for people who actually have money to invest in solar systems and batteries that cost you 50 to 70 grand, and you're willing to finance them at 7.5 to 8%, which is like you may as well just pay the utility at that point. But whatever.
So this is Etsy's stock. As you can see, it boomed during the pandemic, duh, that's obvious. But it's literally been dragging along like the Titanic's anchor at the bottom of the ocean, quite frankly, since the middle of '22. So we're coming up on two years of some of the worst price action ever for Etsy, and it just feels like it's about to get even worse. In my opinion we might go down another 50%, to basically the depths of what we had during COVID. Except after COVID, everybody was locked in at home, so everybody was buying crap on Etsy they didn't need, and boom, we got this euphoric run in the stock.
Now, look, we're going to go beyond Etsy in a moment, don't worry, I promise. But look at this for a moment. I was thinking they'd tell us something about a bottom, because everybody keeps saying, hey, the consumer is so resilient, don't worry, the consumer keeps spending. Okay, that's fine, the consumer can continue to be resilient. But what I hate is when every company tells me the consumer continues to be resilient, and then some of them start going, "I don't know, man." We're starting to see the canary in the coal mine, because that spreads like cancer to other industries rapidly. That's what concerns me.
Look at this closely. These headwinds are real, and they do not appear to be abating. Consumer wallets remain squeezed. Duh. Did you hear about the BNPL stuff? Let me write this in: BNPL. Look at the BNPL crisis. There's this article Bloomberg put together from a Harris poll on phantom debt, and it suggested that basically 43% of those who owe money to BNPL were behind on payments, and of those households with over 100,000 of annual income, 42% were delinquent according to the survey. One of the problems with BNPL is that many of these don't show up on consumer reports like your credit report. They're just little installment reports, like paying for whatever. But people are now bouncing their rent, their groceries. The consumer is really screwed. The bottom 50% is absolutely whacked.
We just had, I think it was Gunlock, and also Barry Stern, say the same thing. Here's Barry. Barry told us we're starting to see the weakness in the consumer. He shouts out Starbucks, McDonald's, warnings on credit cards. He says 50 to 60% of Americans are out of savings. The penny pinching is coming. Barry Stern says now, of course, he says we're temporarily propped up by migrants taking jobs that Americans don't want. Even though obviously we have an undocumented immigration problem, it's better that people have jobs than not have jobs and basically be on welfare. I suppose that's a good point. But he's also got this really big concern that US debt is so large the Fed's going to be forced to cut rates, not because inflation is coming down, no, inflation could actually be worse, but because you're going to start seeing one to two regional banks fail every single week, maybe as much as one per day, as these cracks continue to develop.
Now, maybe Barry's just being a bear. Maybe he should change his name to Bear Stern Lake instead of Barry Stern Lake. Okay, that's a stupid joke, but it's serious from the point of view that we're starting to get a lot of smart money saying, hey, cracks are coming. Barry Stern says the cracks are coming, consumers are out of money, and we're seeing that in a canary in the coal mine like Etsy.
In my opinion, Etsy is literally the discretionary of discretionary. I think you kind of go from discretionary, which is like, I need a 3D-printed dragon dagger with a poison tip, so I can go look at my cool 3D-printed poison dagger tip from RuneScape, and then I could write it off because it obviously muted into this video, just like everything else in this room, see, IRS. Okay, so there's the discretionary of discretion. Then there's discretion, which is like, am I going to buy my kid a new Lego set? And then there's subscription discretion: do I really need Hulu, Netflix, Disney+, and a newspaper subscription? And then you get into the discretion of, do I really need the Starbucks, or am I going to make it at home and use the old mugs I have, or am I going to go to GameStop and buy the Pokémon mugs, also, right off?
Etsy is the canary in the coal mine. I was really expecting them to tell us there was some form of optimism coming. Look at what we had in this Meet Kevin post we did in February. I want you to see this, because it shows change over time. Does anybody remember writing five-paragraph essays in school, the change-over-time essays in AP? Anyway, change over time. What's the change over time? Look at this. Plenty of cash to cover short-term obligations, sees modest active buyer growth in the US and strong growth internationally, and they're expecting volumes to decline low single digits year over year. Okay, so the growth is going away. Fine. But the headwinds, or some pickup in some of those buyers, that's gone now. It's turned into: consumer wallets remain squeezed, the headwinds are real, consumer sentiment remains distressed, the international market that was growing has turned into macro that is quite challenging, especially in the UK and Germany. Consumers feel pressured, they're seeking value and discounts, and China is providing that. Our sellers have no pricing power, even regular spenders are spending less. You could see all the screenshots here. It's bad, it's very bad.
Maybe Etsy just sucks. Maybe that's it, maybe Etsy's just trash and it's over. But then we also need to look at Starbucks. Okay, maybe they're getting beat up because of China. But maybe we should also start thinking that if we keep making excuses for the consumer, we might end up getting blindsided, and I don't want to get blindsided. McDonald's, for example. Let's just put it this way: they're now announcing a $5 meal deal. I feel like they used to have a dollar menu, and now it's the $5 meal deal, an effort for McDonald's to, quote, lure the consumer back in. In other words, the consumer is gone. Comp sales in Q2 so far are, quote, roughly flat. This isn't good. People were cutting back on the Mickey D's, and now they're coming out with discounted burgers.
People, we're not going to have to worry about inflation anymore. We're going to have to worry about deflation, because you're going to take a simulated consumer and turn them into a dead horse, and people are going to go, "Can you get it up again? Hello?" I don't know. Maybe I'm just being too bearish. But let me put it this way: right now the Greed and Fear Index is at neutral. I think we're about to go to extreme fear. I don't want to say that, I don't want that to be the case, that's bad. But this is where we are. We're at neutral, and we're at Greed for market momentum. I think this is going to go all the way down over here to extreme fear within the next three months. Why do I see that? We've had the volatile Nike "swoosh" recovery, we've had it, it's been great, it should keep going. Could it keep going? Could we be wrong here? Absolutely. Inflation could really surprise to the downside, and maybe we're off to the races next week.
Consider inflation. The forecast for inflation right now is sitting at, let's see here, CPI month over month is expected at 4%, and oil dropped like crazy. I'm kind of surprised by that. I would have thought oil would have dragged that down a little more, so maybe we'll come in low on that CPI month over month, but the CPI core is expected to grow by.
다음 주 수요일에 3%대 월간 물가 지표가 나올 것 같습니다. 솔직히 말하면 연준 목표인 2% 근처로 가려면 0.1~0.2% 수준으로 떨어져야 하는데, 지금 기대치는 그렇지 않습니다. 그런데 오늘 아침 블룸버그는 소비자심리 지표 이후 상황이 뚜렷하게 나빠졌다고 보도했습니다.
이 경제를 움직이는 건 결국 소비자입니다. 사람들이 GPT 구독이나 FSD, 회사의 AI 구독료를 내는 것도 소비자가 일자리를 유지하고 있어야 가능합니다. 소비자가 직장을 잃으면 회사는 마이크로소프트 코파일럿 좌석을 줄이고, 개인은 GPT 구독부터 해지합니다. 지금 AI 소프트웨어 매출이 잘 안 보이는 것도 이 때문입니다. AI 서버를 짓는 붐이 끝나면 기다리는 건 힘든 시기이고, 지금의 AI 밸류에이션은 이 붐이 영원히 계속된다고 가정하는 수준입니다. 그럴 수도 있고 그러길 바라지만, 그렇지 않다면 경기침체가 옵니다.
차트를 보면 QQQ는 고점에서 막힌 모습입니다. 이번 실적 시즌은 초반에는 괜찮았지만 중형주와 소비 관련 기업으로 넘어가면서 나빠졌습니다. 마이크로소프트 같은 빅테크는 괜찮았지만, 성장률 둔화에 대한 전망이 나오면서 주가가 밀린 종목도 있었습니다. 이번 분기 전체 실적은 좋았지만 성장 둔화 신호가 보이기 시작했습니다.
S&P500도 같은 모습입니다. 돌파를 시도하지만 거절당할 가능성이 커 보입니다. 파월 의장이 금리 고점을 언급하면서 잠깐 랠리가 있었지만, 장단기 금리 역전은 역사상 가장 긴 기간 이어지고 있고 현재 37bp 역전 상태입니다. 오늘 아침 소비자심리와 기대인플레이션 지표도 좋지 않았습니다.
비트코인도 하락 채널을 이탈하지 못하고 있습니다. 오늘 아침 한 번 돌파를 시도했지만 미시간대 소비자심리 발표 이후 30분 만에 1.2%, 이어서 2% 가까이 떨어졌고, 지난 24시간 동안 약 3.4% 하락했습니다. 제 생각에 비트코인은 시장의 선행지표입니다. 비트코인이 오르면 좋은 신호이고, 하락 추세에 있으면 나쁜 신호입니다. 단기적으로 다시 오를 수 있는 촉매가 나오는지 지켜보고 있습니다.
가장 걱정되는 부분은 고용입니다. 향후 1년간 실업률 상승 예상치가 2009년 이후 최고 수준입니다. 2023년 초 빅테크 대량 해고 때도 불안이 있었지만 주가는 다시 올랐습니다. 이번에는 다릅니다. 해고가 1차 구조조정이 아니라 깊은 감원이고, 테슬라는 슈퍼차저 팀의 인허가·부지·임대 협상 경험이 있는 인력을 대거 해고했습니다. 돈이 충분하다고 생각하는 회사나 사업을 크게 키우려는 회사는 이렇게 하지 않습니다.
이런 일은 노동시장 전체로 번집니다. 한 엔지니어는 12월에 해고돼 3개월 만에 테슬라에 재취업했는데, 출근 72시간 전에 입사 취소 통보를 받았다는 사례가 돌았습니다. 이런 불확실성 속에서 사람들이 무엇을 살 수 있겠습니까. 필요한 것만 사게 되고, 실제로 월마트, 아마존, 코스트코가 잘 되는 이유도 여기 있습니다. 사람들은 가장 좋은 가성비를 찾고 있습니다.
고소득층의 고용 불안도 높아지고 있습니다. 연봉 15만 달러 이상의 72.48%가 해고를 걱정하고 있고, 5만 달러 이하는 50.26%입니다. 상장 대기업은 주주에게 EPS 성장을 보여줘야 하는데 경기가 나빠지면 비용 절감 요구가 더 많아질 겁니다.
2019년에는 미중 무역전쟁, 2011년에는 이집트 시위와 이중침체 우려가 있었고, 2020년에는 코로나에 맞서 모두가 뭉쳤습니다. 지금은 많은 사람들이 사업이 둔화되고 있다고 느낍니다. 창업하고 사업을 키우기가 가장 어려운 시기일 수도 있습니다. 부동산 중개인, 대출 업자, 사업가 모두 더 많은 고객을 찾으려고 밤늦게까지 일합니다.
현금 유동성은 매우 빡빡하고, 은행 부실 상각 이야기도 나옵니다. 가계 부채 상환 부담은 늘고 있고, 지정학 위기는 이스라엘-가자, 러시아-우크라이나, 수단까지 끝나지 않았습니다. 정부는 모든 게 괜찮다고 하고 GDP가 4% 가까이 된다고 하지만, 제 생각엔 현실 부정에 가깝습니다. 물가는 여전히 높고, 이민과 국경 문제 시위까지 겹쳐 부정적인 기운이 많습니다. 제 감정일 수도 있지만 저만 그렇게 느끼는 건 아닙니다.
데이터도 그렇습니다. 소비자심리와 경기 여건은 전년 대비로는 올랐지만, 전월 대비로는 무너지고 있습니다. 소비자심리지수는 전월 대비 12.7% 하락했습니다. 작년보다 나아진 건 맞지만, 중요한 건 추세입니다. 이 -12%가 계속 이어지면 두세 달 안에 심리의 바닥을 보게 될 겁니다.
첫째, 가족을 챙기고 건강에 집중하세요. 산책하고 운동하고 휴대폰과 틱톡, 인스타그램, X 같은 자극에서 잠시 떨어지세요. 낙관론과 비관론을 둘 다 듣고 스스로 판단하세요. 댓글로 여러분의 상황도 알려주세요. 직장은 괜찮은지, 배우자와 자녀의 일자리는 어떤지요. 자녀가 일할 나이인데 일을 못 하고 있다면 그것도 큰 문제입니다.
정말로 시장이 다음 단계로 로켓처럼 오를 거라고 믿으시나요? 저는 촉매를 잘 모르겠습니다. 이미 도달한 비현실적인 수준을 넘는 실적이 나올 것 같지도 않습니다. 시장을 크게 올릴 수 있는 건 CPI 쇼크, 즉 예상보다 좋은 물가 지표 정도일 텐데, 그마저도 표현이 헷갈리는 것 같습니다. 0.4가 아니라…
3번: 0.1, 0.1 이렇게 나오면 다들 "야호, 2020년 말처럼 인플레이션이 다시 사라지는 추세를 만들기 시작하겠구나" 하고 좋아하죠. 4월 데이터에서 바로 나올지는 모르겠지만, 인플레이션은 빠르게 꺾일 수 있습니다. 문제는 그 시점에 소비자가 여전히 버티고 있을지예요. 그건 저도 모르겠습니다. 그래서 솔직히 조금 우울해지는 게 사실입니다.
평소처럼 제가 생각하고 하고 있는 주식 매매 내용을 주식·심리 그룹에 알림으로 보내고 있는데요. 살짝 외가격 숏 포지션이 열렸습니다. 아마 좋은 생각은 아닐 수도 있어요. 하지만 큰 거래는 아닙니다. 아직 시작 단계라서, 작은 포지션을 먼저 잡아볼까 생각 중입니다. 그리고 소비자물가지수(CPI) 결과가 나쁘게 나오면 그 숏을 두세 배로 늘릴 수도 있고요. 아니면 그냥 해변에 가서 맥주 한잔하고 쉬면 다 괜찮아질지도 모르죠.
결국 모든 게 괜찮을 거라고 생각합니다. 그런데 진짜 질문은 이겁니다. 당신의 사업이 살아남을까? 당신의 직장은? 대출 상환은? 이런 것들이 정말 중요하죠. 제 부동산 스타트업에 부채가 없는 이유가 있고, 지금 제가 현금을 많이 들고 있는 이유도 있습니다. 개인적으로는 사실 크게 중요하지 않아요. 시장이 오르면 제 스타트업에도 좋고, 시장이 떨어져도 현금이 있으니 버틸 수 있으니까요. 어느 쪽이든 괜찮습니다. 그래서 FOMO(놓치는 것에 대한 불안)도 별로 없어요. 여러 방향에 투자해 두었기 때문에 어느 쪽이든 괜찮을 겁니다.
2024년은 당연히 선거 사이클이 있죠. 하지만 거시경제를 볼 때 선거 사이클은 그렇게 크게 보지 않습니다. 대신 앞으로 1년을 버티는 것이 모두에게 가장 큰 과제가 될 것 같습니다. 시청해 주셔서 감사하고, 행운을 빕니다.
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