저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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금 가격 전망과 달러·세금정책에 대한 Peter Schiff의 강세 견해 요약. 결론: 금은 장기적으로 크게 오르고 달러는 약세 장기추세에 들어갔다는 강한 강세론. 금 가격 및 연준 인사: 금은 최근 2주 최저(1280달러대)로 밀렸으나, 트럼프의 연준의장 후보로 거론된 존 테일러는 가능성이 낮다고 봄. 트럼프는 주가 부양에 협조적이고 금리를 낮게 유지할 인물을 원한다고 주장. 해리 덴트 비교: 덴트의 금 700달러 하락 전망(과거 200~300달러에서 상향)에 반대. 연준이 디플레이션을 막기 위해 돈을 찍을 것이며 이는 달러 약세·금 강세 요인이라고 봄. 세금 감면 및 재정: 감세는 부채로 재원을 메우는 것이므로 인플레이션과 달러 가치 하락을 낳음. 시장은 감세를 선반영해 금이 약간 내렸지만, 실제 시행 시 달러는 하락하고 금은 크게 상승한다는 '소문엔 사고 사실엔 판다' 논리. 연준 금리인상: 2015년 12월 이후 연준이 금리를 올렸음에도 달러는 그때보다 낮고 금은 높음. 인상 기대가 달러를 띄웠을 뿐이며, 실제 인상 시 달러는 되레 약세로 전환될 것. 달러 전망: 올해 시작 시 달러 강세 베팅이 과밀하고 틀렸으며, 올해가 주요 달러 약세장의 시작이고 달러는 사상 최저치를 경신, 금은 사상 최고치로 갈 것이라고 주장. 금 가격 상승 및 달러 약세 방향은 중기 이상 기간 기준으로 제시됨. 출연자 전망: 금·달러 강세/약세 방향을 명확히 제시, 리스크로 연준 인상과 감세 실행 여부를 언급.
다듬은 글
it's been a tricky week for gold it hit a two-week low following the Senate passage of a budget framework it's resting now at 1280 and 50 cents the lowest since October 6 where do we go from here good question the man to tell us Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital joins us now looking a bit wobbly not looking too good going into the weekend it was suggested that donald trump may be favoring economist john taylor for the Federal Reserve chair I bring that up because some people say that might have a you know indicate some bad things for the price of gold moving forward well first of all I doubt that but Taylor's a longshot I think there was some rumors because Trump had a favorable meeting supposedly with Taylor but I don't think Donald Trump would take a chance on someone like Taylor I think he wants somebody who's going to be more of a team player who's going to be more actively involved in helping to prop up the stock market especially now that Donald Trump has basically attached his presidency to the fate of the stock market so he's not going to take a chance on a wild card where rates might go up he wants some of that's gonna keep rates down that's willing to do another round of quantitative easing if that's what it takes and so I don't think John Taylor's his guy let's talk about economist Harry dent saying that we could see fallen prices as low as 700 big companies like Goldman Sachs though still prefer it should we maintain a positive or a negative outlook on gold prices in the near future based on what we've seen from October 6 to now yeah well Harry's been a bear on gold for a long time and you know actually 700 is a higher target I mean for a while you had a target of 2 or 300 so she's had to adjust that upwards but you know I think I think Harry's wrong I think you know there's a lot of things that Harry says that I agree with but his price target on gold is not one of them I think he has too much confidence in the US dollar and doesn't really understand the nature of fiat money and the fact that if all the things that Harry believes are gonna happen happen that that is very bearish for the dollar because the Federal Reserve is gonna print a lot of money he's looking for massive deflation but I don't think the Fed is going to allow that to happen they have the ability to stop that by printing money and that's exactly what they're going to do you know early before I got on you were talking about these tax cuts and one of the reasons that gold has gone down a little bit recently is the markets are anticipating the tax cuts and that's also been a positive for the dollar but what traders don't seem to understand is these tax cuts are very bearish for the dollar and they are bullish for gold because all that's happening is the government will be replacing tax revenue with debt right see we're not cutting the size of government government's gonna keep getting bigger and bigger and bigger but what we're gonna do is pay for that bigger government by issuing more debt and that means more money printing it means more inflation and ultimately that's a lot more expensive it's more expensive to pay for government by borrowing than by taxing and so this is going to be a big negative for the dollar because we're debasing the dollar in order to cut taxes so ultimately this is going to be a buy the rumor sell the fact if we get these tax cuts the dollar is going down not up and gold is gonna go way up not down let's say we face these Fed rate hikes in in December like a lot of people are talking about do you see the dollar gaining strength on that not really I mean the Fed has been raising rates since December of 2015 and the dollar is lower today than it was then a gold is higher now than it was then so it was the anticipation of rate hikes that helped the dollar by the time they actually started hiking rates the dollar was going the other way and I think the same thing is going to happen this time I think the dollar has caught a bit on the anticipation of another hike but I think if we get one they're gonna sell the fact and the dollar downtrend I think is firmly in place I think you had tremendous dollar bullishness when the year began the trade was very crowded and very wrong and I think this is the beginning or this is the first year of what is going to be a major major dollar bear market that is going to take the dollar to new all-time record lows and in the process send gold to new all-time record highs Peter chefs CEO of euro pacific capital thank you
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