저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
조엘 그린블랫의 매직 포뮬라 투자법을 소개하는 교육 영상. 전략 개요: 이익수익률(영업이익/기업가치)로 저평가 기업을, 자본수익률(ROC)로 사업 품질을 측정해 두 지표를 결합한 전략이다. 백테스트 성과: 1998~2009년 연평균 23.8%로 S&P500(9.6%)을 크게 상회했고, 1988~2004년 구간에서는 연 30.8%로 S&P500 12.4%를 웃돌았다고 소개. 전략 단계: 금융사 제외 등 조건 설정 후 두 지표로 순위를 매기고, 상위 20~30개 종목을 3개월마다 6~7개씩 12개월 분할 매수하며, 연 1회 리밸런싱하고 최소 5년 유지한다. 후속 검증: 북유럽, 브라질, 홍콩, 중국, 미국 등에서도 지수 초과 성과를 보였다는 연구가 소개됐다. 2003~2015년 분석에서는 S&P500 대비 약 3%p 초과수익을 냈으나 변동성은 더 높았다. 국내 적용: 시가총액 1000억 원 이상 조건으로 국내 종목을 스크리닝한 결과 화학, 건설·엔지니어링, 철강·금속, 석유·가스, 일부 제약 등이 다수 포함됐고, 시멘트·FMCG·IT·종이·섬유·자동차부품은 제외됐다. 목록은 시장 상황에 따라 계속 바뀐다고 언급. 실행 방법: 직접 스크리닝, 가치리서치·온라인스크리너·에퀴티마스터 등의 목록 구독, 스몰케이스·웰스덱 등 플랫폼 이용(월 약 1000원 수준 비용) 세 가지를 제시. 결론: 누구나 실행 가능한 명확한 전략이지만 과거 성과가 미래를 보장하지 않으며, 펀드 투자는 시장 위험이 따른다는 고지로 마무리.
다듬은 글
magic formula investing is a strategy that was created by the american hedge fund manager and columbia university professor joel greenblatt the core of the strategy is its formula driven approach that focuses on buying good companies at favorable prices in order to maximize returns as one can understand greenblatt prefix the word magic to his formula to improve its marketability but in numbers and when back tested his magic portfolio does deliver an annualized return of 23.8 between 1998 and 2009 which was far higher than s p 500's 9.6 cagr now green platte didn't stop with just creating a formula but he actually puts it together as a strategy those details can be read in his famous book the little book that beats the market in the process of developing his magic formula greenblatt analyzed a large universe of us listed companies and he was particularly looking for businesses with a large earnings yield and a high return on capital we'll understand more on this in the next section but remember the core focus of the magic formula is in finding companies that are both cheap and good let's start with how the magic formula finds cheap companies now for this greenblatt uses the ratio of the company's operating earnings to the enterprise value which he labels as the earnings field these two financial metrics can be easily found in the profit and loss statement and the balance sheet of the company although enterprise value will require a quick calculation on your part which is nothing but the summation of the company's market cap and debt after subtracting the cash in the business greenblatt's earnings yield is a representation of a company's cheapness and as you might have expected the higher the earnings yield the cheaper is that company now when it comes to identifying good companies greenplatt prefers using the return on capital metric the return on capital or the roc of a company is calculated as its operating earnings or a bit divided by the sum of the net working capital and the company's depreciation adjusted value of fixed assets in essence the roc is a proxy for business quality as companies that are more efficient users of capital also tend to have a better brand a superior product a unique business model and a wider economic mode so on one hand the magic formula uses the earnings yield which quantifies how cheap the company is and on the other hand it utilizes the company's return on capital which quantifies the efficiency and the quality of the business now the joel greenblatt magic formula investing strategy is a set of nine rules the first three rules are conditions that is the minimum market gap and excluded sectors and geographies most significantly the strategy excludes financial companies and while the book doesn't give us a reason for this exclusion we think this is more to do with a financial company's unique business model and its heavy use of leverage steps four and five are where we plug in the earnings yield and the return of capital as per the calculations we had done earlier in this video now of course a criteria like a minimum market cap of 100 million dollars is pertaining to the u.s markets and it's a little outdated which means you have to define your own criteria for indian stocks which might mean a minimum of 500 crores or a thousand crores etc but these five steps here are like the essential raw materials or might i say the magic portions of the magic formula investing process this brings us to step 6 which is about allocating a rank for each company on the basis of their earnings yield and their return on capital to illustrate let's say we have a small universe of 10 stocks was earnings yield and return on capital has been already computed the next step is to rank the values and then to add up the numbers for us to receive the total score for instance stock f is ranked number one as per its earnings yield and its roc which means one plus one gives the stock a score of two now understandably companies which have a low total score are better positioned in terms of cheapness and quality of business and so the final step is to sort this table on the basis of the total score which gives us company f company j company b so on and so forth as our preferred list of companies to invest into if this part is clear we come to step seven and in a method similar to what we just did greenblatt's strategy requires investing into 20 to 30 of the highest ranked companies he goes on to suggest that these stocks should be accumulated on a progressive basis that is invest into six to seven companies every three months over a 12-month period step eight of the strategy requires investors to rebalance their portfolio once a year and since there is some taxation involved the ideal approach here is to sell the portfolio's loser stocks in the 51st week after purchase so that one can book a short term capital loss and subsequently sell the portfolios winners in the 53rd week after the purchase this way the magic formula strategy requires investors to book profits once a year and use the proceeds to repeat the seven steps that we learned in the earlier section and the final step step nine is to persist with this approach over a period of at least five years to derive maximum benefits under this strategy so these were the nine steps towards implementing your own magic formula investing strategy and while what i just showed you was the joel greenblatt version most practitioners do tweak some parts of the strategy to suit their own learnings investing style and market conditions joel greenblatt back-tested his magic formula for the 16-year period between 1988 and 2004 the results he received were truly remarkable in numbers the magic portfolio had just one down year and delivered a cagr of 30.8 percent as against a 12.4 percent annual return for the s p 500 and it is on account of this performance that practitioners and researchers all around the world got busy verifying and even improving greenblatt's formula for instance there was a favorable study in 2009 in the nordic countries which concluded that while the formula worked it worked even better with some simple tweaks to the formula similarly there were studies in brazil hong kong china and the u.s market that supported the magic formula's utility in delivering results above the benchmark in fact in june of 2020 an independent scholar named robert andrew martin published a back-tested analysis done from 2003 to 2015 which found a three percent over performance for the magic formula in that study martin also found that while the magic formula over performed the s p 500 index it did that at a higher volatility than the index which i thought was a bit surprising of course one test result can be different from the other as a lot of it depends on the stocks one buys the frequency of the purchase the rebalancing period etc and although most investors could not replicate greenblatt's high returns they still yielded positive results with most experts agreeing that the magic formula investing strategy does have some legs and it does outperform the indices many indian websites feature stocks that subscribe to the magic formula some of these lists are free of cost while others require a subscription but in all fairness creating your own list is just a matter of spending a sunday afternoon with any stock screen a website and so that's what we did we applied the magic formula approach to indian stocks did some tweaking like setting a minimum market cap condition of 1000 crores etc and came up with these stocks which are listed not necessarily in the order of ranking but includes the earnings yield and the return on capital for your reference notice here that while we applied the magic formula to a list of over 1 1000 companies a large part of the selection landed on chemical companies that includes commodity agro and speciality chemicals construction and engineering companies iron and steel and metal companies oil and gas some packaging companies and also some pharmaceutical companies actually india has a lot of pharma companies and honestly we found a few of them in the selection and also a few of them in the rejection bucket which really didn't surprise us and speaking about sectors that did not make our cut we have the cement companies fmcg companies which has to be on account of the low earnings yield then we have the i.t companies paper textiles auto parts etc now remember this is a moving list because valuations and profitability is a dynamic number and they keep changing with the mood in the market and the cyclicity factors of that business there are many options through which one can invest per the contours of the magic formula investing strategy the first option is the do-it-yourself way and we've already discussed the core aspect of it in this video with those nine steps now it's just a matter of you putting in an afternoon and identifying the right set of stocks and idling with some tweaks like market cap cyclicity industry prospect etc you can improve your stock selection the second option is to utilize the list of magic formula stocks that's available in websites like value research online screener dot in equity master etc some of these websites offer this list free of cost while some charge a fee for it so do check that out and also figure out how the list has performed on a historical basis and a third option to investing in the magic formula set of stocks is via a platform like small case or wealth desk these platforms offer a curated basket of these stocks but they come at a cost which is somewhere around 1000 rupees per month now in my opinion the magic formula is a clear strategy and it's easy enough to be done by any individual who's curious to learn about it joel greenblatt's book can be a wonderful starting point and you can always follow that up with tons of information that's available on the internet and with this we come to the end of this video i sincerely hope you learned something new today and if yes do help us out by tapping onto that like button and sharing this video with your whatsapp groups once again thank you for your time and i look forward to catching up with you next week on another insightful video until then mutual fund investments are subject to market risks read all scheme related documents carefully you
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