저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 경기침체 여부는 아직 불투명하며, 연준이 금리를 공격적으로 올려야 하는 상황에서 'Good news is bad news' 국면이다. [경기 판단] 켄 랭곤은 이미 침체 상태라고 보지만 크레이머는 데이터를 더 확인해야 한다고 본다. [주택시장] 5월 기존주택 계약(pending home sales)은 전월 대비 0.7% 상승했으나 북동부 외 전국 거래는 전년 대비 13.6% 감소, 서부 계약 감소폭이 가장 컸다. 계약 둔화는 주택가격 하락의 전조이며 연준이 이를 원하고 있다고 해석한다. [내구재·원자재] 내구재 주문은 0.7%(2,672억 달러) 증가했으나 강한 지표는 연준의 긴축을 부추긴다. 대두·설탕·옥수수·가축 하락, 면화는 1995년 이후 최악, 구리는 2011년 이후 최악 흐름이다. 원유는 6월 내내 하락 후 2% 이상 반등, 천연가스는 약 3% 상승해 인플레이션 우려를 키운다. [금융·기술주] 모건스탠리는 200억 달러 자사주 매입과 배당 11% 인상을 발표했으며 PER 약 9~10배로 저평가라고 본다. 골드만삭스는 분기배당을 250센트로 조정, 코인베이스 목표가를 70달러에서 45달러로 낮춘 리포트가 나왔다. 업랩(UiPath)은 전 세계 인력의 5%를 감원했다. [금리 전망] 크레이머는 연준이 100bp 인상을 해야 주택가격·노동시장 냉각으로 인플레를 잡을 수 있다고 본다. 주식시장은 괜찮을 수 있으나 강한 데이터는 긴축을 부르고 약한 데이터는 이미 늦었다는 딜레마가 있다. [종목 Q&A] 캐터필러: 3~5년 관점에서 추가 매수 권고. 램리서치: 파운드리에 필수이며 매우 저평가라고 언급. 모건스탠리: 하락 시 매수 지속, 추가 매수 긍정. 글로벌파운드리: 장기적으로 좋은 사업은 아니라고 평가. 벨든, 페덱스: 명확한 견해 없이 추가 조사 필요 언급. [리스크] 연준의 긴축이 과도하면 경기가 급격히 붕괴할 수 있으며, 6~9개월 투자 관점을 권장한다.
다듬은 글
america if you you mc or tweet me at jim cramer it's nail biting time even if you don't bite your nails right now we're figuring out if the recent collapse in commodity prices is because the feds wrenched all the speculative excess out of the system good or because the world's economy's slowing so rapidly that we're headed for a terrible recession bad and that's the number one question on daily today where the dow dipped 62 points as me declined 0.3 nasdaq lost 0.72 now i wish i could tell you the answer but i don't think it's available yet this morning i had a discussion with ken langone the brilliant businessman turned philanthropist he was adamant that a bad recession with food to be the culprit for commodities and hey he's got a point the metals and plastics and wood complex are all down badly sure signs the industry is slowing worldwide how inevitable is that recession in your view are we in a recession right now never say never i think we are in a recession right now i think intellectually and mentally we're in recession right now wow i ran with me all day so i thought about is it true well i don't know i puzzled over for hours why don't we approach this empirically before we conclude that we're unavoidably headed for a deep recession remember the ideal outcome here is to get enough of a slowdown that the fed can take up rates gradually without throwing a ton of people out of work every day we get clues we just need to know how to interpret them today we learn for instance that pending home sales edged up 0.7 percent in may versus april oh boy that's a 2-0 statistic that means the fed will have to type more aggressively that is a langone number but then you look underneath the headline and you see the truth the northeast accelerated 15.4 percent month over month smoking hot bad however nationwide transactions dropped 13.6 year-over-year with the largest decline in contract activity taking place in the west where homes are way more expensive than the rest of the country contract signings are down sizably from a year ago because of much higher mortgage rates now this is where it gets really tricky the chief economist for the national association of realtors lawrence yoon clearly seems alarmed by the signings number he says and i quote trying to balance the housing market by choking off demand via higher mortgage rates is damaging to consumers and the economy the better way to balance the market is through increased supply of course he's right but the fed can't build more houses the home builders are trying best they can to build as much as they can see i see comments like this and it makes me think we could be looking at a rapid breakdown in sales that's good news for the stock market as long as it's not too rapid my wife sells real estate for a living she taught me that the prelude to a sudden plunge in housing prices is a dramatic drying up of contracts that decline is what jpel wants to see he'll keep bringing that pain until it happens he needs housing prices lower they're up 20 over two years when you put together the declining value of real estate though with the declining value of your 401k well you're going to have a weaker consumer maybe a much weaker consumer maybe two-week consumer how about the enterprise today we got durable goods orders and they were up ever so slightly 1.9 billion or 0.7 percent to 267.2 billion in a vacuum i think that's excellent but we're in a good news is bad in a situation where strong numbers mean the fed needs to tighten a lot more aggressively how about commodities all right now here we are break them down one by one some great news here soy sugar corn cattle all down cotton is on pace for its worst months since 1995.
wheat's happening in sports months of 2015. copper worse since 2011. that's all fantastic from an inflation perspective we'd be worried that russia's invasion of ukraine would cause worldwide food shortages even famines and it is in some places because so many calories have taken offline but now it's looking a little less likely these commodity collapses are exactly what you want to see and they're not from the fed however crude oil which had spent most of june going lower finally snapped back today up more than two percent natural gas jumped nearly three percent so there goes the neighborhood when energy is running like that it's hard to believe we can have a soft landing isn't it because high gas prices put a ton of pressure on the fed to tighten we go back and forth and back and forth the drug stocks rally because of a belief that the power will throw us into recession the tech stocks fall because we're beginning to get layoffs uipath uh one of the fastest growing tech darling automating repetitive emotions laid off five percent of its global workforce today that would be inconceivable recently six months ago power boats according to bear down 18 percent year over year in may and then we got this cautionary article on cnbc.com about the coming wall street layouts as the capital market's business is falling apart something you can see from the total drop in ipos the math is ominous the article says head count and j.p morgan's investment bank goldman sachs points jumped by 13 70 and 26 respectively you can only imagine how little some of these people have to do goldman sachs has told me over and over again it can cut its table of employment swiftly and still make excellent money i sense that maybe they have to do that another blow to the high-end real estate market but then again after the close tonight morgan stanley just announced a 20 billion dollar buyback and 11 boost in the dividend so how bad how big can things be there and goldman just took its quarterly dividend from two dollars or 250 in change maybe things are great oh and then there was a savage report today by goldman sachs saying the coinbase will have to lay off many more people and already has they cut their price target for the thing for 70 45.
citing coin bases voracious cash burn uh you can extrapolate from there to the whole crypto complex more than them later so where do i come down on the recession that ken lingard warned us about this morning let me put this way i am thinking what we really need i think we need a knockout punch i mean just against inflation a real roundhouse that takes us out of this on the one hand on the other hand landscape it's ironic but both kenlan good and i said the fed needs to hit us with a 100 basis point rate hike for me it's because that would take us where real estate losses loses value homes become more affordable labor market cools off enough to tamp down inflation but ken is talking about multiple hundred basis point hikes because he thinks we got truly runaway inflation as i see it the stock market may be okay given that there's a mix of good and bad day points given that stocks had such a big move last friday it felt like kind of our consolidation day when we digest those gains i didn't mind it but make no mistake about it we are not where we want to be the fact that cranes can fall despite the russell ukraine war is very strong the fact that oil and gas are up is mandating the bottom line the news is precarious it could go either way but maybe that's what we need to see if we're going to have a soft landing not a horrific crash landing if all the data was strong we'd be set up for a series of aggressive rate hikes that would wreck the economy if all the data were weak then it's already too late this stuff is difficult to parse isn't it but it must be done or else you're blind to what's happening out there as i like to say at our 10 20 morning meeting for investor club members you need to calculate the mosaic if you're going to invest on a six to nine month basis which is what i like to do for my travel trust all i can say is for rate hike cycle it's so far so good nancy in texas nancy yes hi jim i want to thank you first of all for being such a great successor to louis rukizer because he cared about the average investor like you do and you're great as well you're very kind thank you really kind to say that i appreciate it he was a great guy uh my question is about caterpillar okay i have a great profit in it but it has come off a tie of course and i'm wondering if i should pair back my position or just i want you to buy more i think jim mumblebee is the man i think they're going to be if you take a three to five year approach to this stock wow is it going to be great and that's the way you got to look at it don't forget 200 yield and a really smart ceo now i want to go to todd in texas please todd jimmy the chill man is here oh man you made my day what's your uh what's your take on global founders well look i mean right now the global foundry business is good it typically is not a good business long term i think it'll be fine i would much prefer you to see be in lamb research lrcx which they have to buy in order to make a foundry work and that stock is very very cheap now we're going to john and marilyn john how are you and your staff doing today my staff is unbelievable they make me look good every single day and they don't get enough appreciation thank you good i'm glad you're doing good and your staff i'm a long time viewer and a member of your investment club you guys do a great job oh thank you i'll tell jeff morris later tomorrow morning thank you okay my question jim i'm a long time holder of morgan stanley i bought some early march a little under 90.
i've been following it all the way down think about buying some more here trades a little over 10 times earnings looks like it's positioned well what are your thoughts i couldn't agree more they got we got a big position as you know for the chapel trust we keep buying it down like you why well tonight they announced a gigantic dividend boost 11 more importantly they have a 20 billion dollar buyback now so they're buying everything they can that's why i like morgan stanley and james gorman they are doing terrifically and it is such an inexpensive stock it's kind of ridiculous how can that thing be at nine times earnings wow that's just wrong all right for a rate hike cycle i don't know so far so good oh man buddy tonight global wafers a silicon wafer company that supplies companies like intel now it's a multi-billion dollar factory today in texas i'm talking to commerce secretary gina raimondo to get a read on what the government is doing to help ease the chip bunch and believe me she helped get that plan here then fedex has surprised wall street after earnings so what was the what was behind that strength more importantly could have continued breaking down the numbers and is belden the network solutions company a classic example of a broken stock i don't know man i think this is the stockton of a company that makes things does stuffs gives you money all the things we love i'm finding out more about it
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