저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 워런 버핏 등 대가들이 쓴 'FCF 수익률 + FCF 성장률' 공식으로 기대수익률을 추정할 수 있으며, 목표는 20% 이상이다. [핵심 공식] 기대수익률 = FCF 수익률(FCF/기업가치) + FCF 성장률. [FCF 정의] 영업비용·세금 등 지급 후 남은 현금으로, 설비투자(capex) 제외. 계산은 영업현금흐름 − capex 방식을 사용. [가치 평가 근거] FCF 수익률은 순이익보다 조작이 어려워 주주가 실제 받을 수 있는 수익을 더 정확히 보여준다. 버핏은 FCF를 가장 중요한 재무지표로 본다. [적용 기준] 대가들은 공식 합계 20% 이상(벤치마크 대비 5~7%p 초과)을 목표로 하며, 추정 오차에 대한 안전마진을 둔다. [인도 시장 적용] 설비 신설 등으로 capex와 운전자본이 크게 변하므로 여러 해에 걸쳐 정규화해야 한다. [종목] 스크리닝 결과 5개 종목을 제시했으나 확신도는 약 60%이며, 목적은 종목 추천이 아니라 분석 방법 교육이다. [리스크] 뮤추얼펀드 투자는 시장위험이 있으므로 관련 문서를 꼼꼼히 확인해야 한다.
다듬은 글
some of you might be wondering what's this clickbaity title doing in an et money video but what i can tell you is that there does exist a single formula that is responsible for the billions that a warren buffett a tweedy brown nick sleep john templeton howard marks a prime watsa and dozens of other investing grades have made over the years sounds a little impossible doesn't it so here's some data this table here shows the names and performance numbers of an august gathering of the world's greatest investing minds of the last 100 years who have not only been growing the wealth but have also been compounding it at incredible rates and so in this video we shall examine this ultimate formula that i've been raving about in greater details additionally we shall try to apply it in an indian context and in the process add to our growing arsenal of investing models and frameworks that can make us a better investor over time let's begin the term intrinsic value gets thrown around a lot which is strange for something that can mean anything to anyone operationally the intrinsic value of a business is merely a series of assumptions around growth discount rates time and its terminal value but almost every great investor has relied on this very concept and so will we although in our case we shall skip the discounted cash flow approach and instead will utilize the concept of yields now most of us are comfortable with the price earning multiple or the p ratio as it is commonly called to put it simply the p ratio gives us the price or valuation of a business as measured against a rupee of profit that turns so if a company is valued at 50 crores and delivers a profit of 4 crores then the p ratio of that company is 50 divided by 4 crores which comes to 12.5 now when one inverses the p ratio what results is the earnings yield of the company so in our illustration we have a p ratio of 12.5 which means one divided by 12.5 gives us the company's earnings yield which comes to eight percent this eight percent earnings yield like all financial ratios is a fluid number and it continues to change with movements in the market gap and profits of the business but importantly it's this very concept of yields that has helped the world's top investors make a tremendous amount of wealth in fact i'm going to argue that these investors could even approximate the returns they can expect to make over the long run with the formula that i'm going to share now which is a company's expected returns is a summation of its free cash flow yield and its free cash flow growth rate i'll repeat a company's expected percentage return is the total of its free cash flow yield and its free cash flow growth rate now since the phrase free cash flow dominates this formula let's understand what it really means to put it simply the free cash flow is the amount of cash that remains after the company has paid for all its expenses like salaries marketing taxes etc in fact free cash flow importantly also excludes the long term investments made by a company like plants machines property trucks computers etc which in common parlance is called capital expenditure now from a calculation standpoint a company's fcf can be computed using either of these two methods so there is the reverse approach which starts from the net profits and then we adjust back the non-cash items as explained in method one and then there is the much simpler cash flow from operations minus capex approach which is generally the formula i use in my calculations but irrespective of the formula you use what's important to conceptually understand here is that the free cash flow of a company refers to its cash resources that are freely available for distribution to the shareholders whether that happens in the form of dividends buybacks organic growth mergers acquisitions or a combination of these it is this generation of usable capital internally and the flexibility of utilizing it that attracts the great investors to this metric with warren buffett saying on many occasions that a company's free cash flow is its most important financial metric in fact companies that produce tons of free cash flow are often more productive less capital guzzling have the ability to grow without external financing and since manipulating cash is a lot more difficult as compared to net profit numbers these companies are viewed as more reliable in the eyes of investors which gives these companies a premium in valuations and high price appreciation prospects with that being said let's come to the two parts of our formula so the first part is the free cash flow yield which is derived by dividing the fcf with the company's enterprise value where the enterprise value represents the total value of the company after accounting for its debt and the cash in hand now as a number the fcf yield gives us a more accurate representation of the returns that a shareholder can expect to receive when they invest in a company as compared to net profits which are subject to manipulation and financial jugglery understandably the higher fcf yield we receive the more attractive is the investment in fact for more seasoned investors the free cash flow yield is a far superior valuation technique when compared to other popular metrics like the p ratio the dividend yield the price to book ratio etc now let's come to the second part of a formula which is more of a growth metric requiring us to estimate the improvement in the company's free cash flow over a period of time of course as you might have guessed this is the more difficult part of the formula and it's often here where mistakes are made with incorrect assumptions around sales growth profit margins and future capex requirements understandably the world's best investors prefer to give a higher weightage to the fcf yield as against the fcf growth rate although in my opinion both these elements are equally important and should be looked at together but if you have understood this video so far then you two are now equipped with the formula that has been used by buffett simpson marx templeton nick sleep jim rogers etc over the years and it is my conviction that applying it in our own investing setup can yield us some really great returns every investor has some targets some criteria in their mind and it is our belief that the world's top investors are generally looking for companies where the free cash flow yield plus growth rate is upwards of twenty percent in other words the quest is to look for returns that can beat the benchmark by five to seven percent which in addition of being an enviable target also allows a decent margin of safety for any errors that might creep into our estimation process now when we sat down to apply the fcf yield plus growth formula on the indian markets we noticed some peculiarities which had to be dealt with for instance the fcf is a very dynamic number and there can be big changes over two financial years like say a new plant is commissioned by the company this year which means the capital expenditure in this year will be a lot higher than the previous year which can wreck our future free cash flow estimates similarly external conditions and even internal activities can bring about a big change in working capital requirements which needs to be factored in fcf calculations in other words it is important to make a note of anomalies in free cash flow use and results will need to be normalized over many years to get a better hang of what's actually happening all right so these were some outliers that we noticed and when researching for indian stocks we did do these normalizations when applying the fcf yield and the fcf growth numbers to our screeners and this is what we got so here's a short list of some stocks that seem to be offering some semblance some predictability of yield and growth which believe me was quite an arduous task in fact our initial list had over 20 companies but many got dropped off due to cyclicity and related factors in fact the five stocks listed here comes at a 60 conviction on our part but we still wanted to put forth what we found because supplying you with a list of companies was not the point here our main and our only focus was to educate you with a secondary way of looking at companies that we think is worthy of your time and money and something that the world's biggest investors have acknowledged in their books letters and speeches if not anything this exercise gave us a better appreciation of what equity analysts and brilliant investors are trying to do on a daily weekly basis to grow their and our wealth when we invest in community funds like mutual funds hedge funds provided funds nps etc and with this we come to the end of this video i hope you like this short presentation on the fcf formula and we look forward to you imbibing it in your own investing if you learn something new then do tap onto that like button to subscribe to our channel and i look forward to catching up with you next week on another insightful topic until then mutual fund investments are subject to market risks read all scheme related documents carefully you
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