저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
2016년 미국 증시는 중국 불안과 달러 강세로 변동성이 크지만 Fed 금리인상이 예상보다 완만해 주가에 우호적이라는 낙관론. 2015년 S&P500 등은 사실상 보합으로 마감했고, 이익 감소(달러 강세, 에너지 가격 붕괴)가 주된 원인이라고 설명. 단기적으로 중국 증시 급락과 사이 서킷브레이커, 내부자 매도 제한 해제 우려가 있으나 이는 과도한 반응이라는 시각. 중국 성장률은 둔화되지만 급격한 침체는 아니라고 봄. 인도는 7~8%로 중국보다 빠르게 성장 중. 미 Fed는 2016년 금리 인상을 2회 정도로 예상(시장은 4회 우려). 이는 주식 시장에 긍정적 요인이라고 평가. 주가지수는 2016년 약 10% 상승 가능성을 제시. 이익 약 10% 성장과 PER 유지를 근거로 함. 긍정 요인: 금리 위협이 과장됐고 에너지 업종 이익 회복 기대. 위협 요인: 유가 추가 하락, 강달러에 따른 수출기업 이익 감소, 디플레이션 수출 가능성. 고용 측면에서는 실업률 5%로 양호하나 경제활동참가율 하락이 문제이며 생산성 회복이 실질임금 상승의 관건이라고 분석. 하이일드 채권 급락은 대부분 에너지 업종에 국한된 것이며 은행 부실 위험은 2008년과 다르다고 판단. 2016년 하이일드 약세는 없을 것으로 봄. 결론적으로 2016년 글로벌 경기 침체는 없을 것으로 전망하며 미국(약 2~2.5% 성장)은 견조하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Today we talk to Jeremy Siegel, a professor of finance at the Wharton School, about the outlook for the markets in 2016. Congratulations, Jeremy. Thank you for joining us. I'm glad to be here and Happy New Year. Happy New Year. Although the stock market isn't all that fun today. Well , let's talk about something.
First, 2015 was the worst year for stock markets since 2008. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices remained virtually unchanged. They lost a little, but overall remained at the same level. This is the lowest figure in quite a long time. So I wanted to ask what you expect in 2016, but this morning we have these problems in China.
Trading halted, stock market falls 7%. So, it's all interconnected. So let's talk about the short term and then the long term . I find it quite interesting that this is the worst performance in six or seven years, while the market is stable. That's not bad, right? I mean, it shows how many good years we've had in the last seven years, that the worst result is a small minus on the index, and if you add the dividend yield, then even a small plus.
And the main reason for this, which we already mentioned in August last year, is that we had a significant drop in profits, unexpected, both due to the rise in the dollar and the collapse in energy prices. And so earnings were significantly below expectations, and actually the stock market performance isn't that bad considering the earnings decline.
Mhm. And I think the projections suggest that future earnings reports won't be great either. And now we have this problem, big or small, with China at the moment. So, what do you see? This is a difficult question for 2016. Yes. Well, let's move on to the shortest possible perspective. The fact is that a 5% trading stop is too little for a volatile market.
There are also concerns about a major lockdown. They banned insiders from selling shares for six months. This ends on Friday. And, you know, every time something bad happens, everyone thinks, "Oh my God, millions of shares are going to be sold on Friday ." And now it just won't go out before the circuit breakers trip .
This is a real mess. They just, you know, we all know they did a really bad job of handling the market. And, you know, it's an important global market, and I think that certainly contributed to today's declines. Do you think that the situation in China is not as bad as today's market suggests, and that it is technical factors that are causing it to fall so much?
Well, you know, the market always reacts too sharply. That is, how much will GDP grow? I heard some analysts on CNBC predict 2-3% this year, which would be a shock, but most of the people I've talked to say it's possible it'll be five. And yes, this is a certain slowdown. But this is not a disaster yet.
We would like to have at least something close to this indicator. True. Good. So let's look ahead. Let's look at the first quarter, the first half of the year, and the full year. All year. What do you see ? Well, you know, there's a lot of pessimism right now. If you look at the " bulls" and "bears", there is a lot of sadness in the market.
I don't think the situation will be that pessimistic. First, I don't think the Fed will tighten policy as much as many fear right now. Many expect four rate hikes. Some even think it's more. I do n't think so. I really believe there will be two increases, at about that level. So I think it will be a positive for the market when everyone realizes: oh my god, the Fed is not going to tighten the screws so much.
And at this point you look at stock valuations, and they, while high from a historical perspective, are not high relative to current and expected interest rates. And I think that understanding will put some of the money back into stocks this year. So where do you think the indices will be at the end of the year?
I think we can get 10% this year . Again, last year we were at zero. I think profits will grow by about 10%. A slight recovery after the approximately 7% drop we had this year. And with earnings rising and concerns about Fed aggressiveness easing, I see us potentially having the same price/ earnings ratio, and therefore 10% market growth this year.
What do you think are the main positive factors and main threats to the US economy in 2016? Well, I mean, the positive thing is that, as I mentioned, I don't think interest rates are going to be a threat. In fact, they will be less of a threat than many think. So, this will turn out to be a positive factor.
I also think that profits will recover. We had a huge drop, especially in the energy sector, and they will recover. Threats, my God, there are people who are still predicting an oil price of $20. And while we've talked about it before, the drop in oil prices is a positive for the US economy as a whole, although not as much as before, as we are almost balanced in imports and exports thanks to the huge growth in shale oil production over the past 5 years.
But, nevertheless, the S&P 500 is not just a US index. It is much more dependent on energy and manufacturing companies that supply equipment to energy companies, like Caterpillar and others, or Schlumberger with all the drilling equipment, and they are definitely being hurt and are reducing their performance.
In addition, a strong dollar, while helping us with imports, is a very difficult challenge for companies that sell goods abroad and bring back euros and yen, which are worth less in dollars. And this is another reason for the drop in profits. So again, falling oil prices won't be good for S&P 500 earnings, even if it doesn't have a major negative impact on American consumers.
What about regions like Europe and China? They will, of course, benefit from these lower oil prices. China is a net importer. India is a net importer. By the way, India is currently growing at 7-8%, actually faster than China. It was oil producers in emerging markets who were hit the hardest. So if we look again at what happens to oil—and China, by the way, plays a big role in what happens to oil—certainly if there is a significant slowdown in China, oil will continue to be under pressure in 2016.
What are the chances, say, that the fairly positive picture of US employment growth in 2015 will finally lead to real wage growth, which some believe has not been seen for decades. If we take into account inflation, as well as the related real investments of corporations in increasing production and expanding activities.
Well, it's worth understanding that one of the biggest disappointments of the last four or five years has been that while there has been good job growth, productivity and GDP growth have been very low . And I say, you know, people say, well, it's two or two and a half percent. But this is just a general trend.
And if there was no job growth, and we have, of course, had a net increase in the number of workers of over two million per year for the last three years. Then we should have real GDP growth rates of four to five percent. We don't fully understand the reasons for the productivity collapse. This is partly due to the large number of regulations.
This may be partly due to incorrect price calculations. So many things are free now thanks to our smartphones, apps, and everything else. If they are free, they are not counted in GDP because GDP is price multiplied by quantity. So some people, myself included, believe that there is actually more deflation going on than is commonly thought, given all the things that have become free over time, which means we are underestimating real GDP and real wage growth.
So, there is a certain measurement problem . There may also be compliance issues and regulatory complexities. This is not entirely clear. If we get a recovery in productivity, we will also see real wages rise. Is this somehow related to the level of labor force participation? Because it's great to see the number of jobs growing, but if you compare it historically to the share of people working in the US, which is a longer-term indicator.
We are still, I mean, trying to get back to the level we were at before the financial crisis. And I think we're actually at a record low . Participation rates continue to fall, and you are absolutely right, they have fallen much more than we expected. We now know that the labor force participation rate will decline as the baby boomer generation retires, but it is falling twice as fast as most economists think it should .
Why do people leave the labor market? There are many assumptions, but this is one of the things that puts pressure on the unemployment rate. Actually, one of the things I want to look at is we get the employment report on Friday. Of course, we get this employment report every month. If we could stabilize the participation rate or even increase it in 2016, it would take a lot of pressure off the Fed, soften any rate hikes, and it would be a very positive development for the U.S.
economy. What do you think are the chances of this happening? Me, I'm not sure. He continues to amaze us with how short he is. I mean, with a good labor market, the unemployment rate of 5% is one of the lowest in the developed world. I mean, we should see more people saying, “Hey, you know what? There are open vacancies.
Why do n't they return to the labor market? And it's not just low-paying jobs, etc." We don't understand all the reasons, we need to change the attitude towards workers and dual-income families." There is a very complex dynamic that is happening right now. Also, the idea that this unemployment rate is 5% or whatever doesn't quite reflect the number of people who are out of the market.
The U6 indicator, which includes the disappointed , also fell significantly. I mean, it's fallen below 10% again. So, we really reduced the number of frustrated workers, people who are not very active job seekers, and those who work part-time instead of full-time. All of these indicators also showed a dramatic decline.
We have done a really great job in this direction. But it still has n't been possible to get people back into the workforce. And I'll just note that despite the bad situation with this indicator in the US, I think things are even worse in Europe . So, they suffer from the same thing . Yes. Well, their participation rates are lower because many of them have much earlier retirement ages, much more generous pension promises, and unemployment insurance is automatic, whereas ours is not.
There are many differences that make our labor market much more flexible than in Europe. What signals should we take from the significant decline that has occurred in high-yield bonds? I think almost all of this is about the energy sector. If we exclude the energy sector from the high-yield sectors , there is only a very moderate weakening.
So, actually, the oil price crash , and there was a lot of debt associated with that, these major limited partnerships, and the crash that happened last year, people thought they had a safe income vehicle, and these assets collapsed by 70% or more. This, I mean, this, this did damage. I don't think we'll see a weakening of the high-yield bond market this year.
In fact, there are probably some good deals on this market right now. So, do you disagree with those who say that this could be the first sign of danger, indicating a hidden weakness in the financial markets? It's good to think that way because these loans, I mean, we look at the financial crisis of 2007-2008 , we saw a deterioration, but this was much more massive.
High-yield bonds belonged to everyone, and these are just energy loans, in which, by the way, banks are not involved at all. This is very, very important in contrast to 2007 and 2008 . Banks, in fact, did not finance any of these oil projects. There was so much free money going directly, they didn't need to go to the banks.
The banks are in very, very good shape now. We've touched on this before, but I'd like to hear a little more of your thoughts on how big a threat deflation is. We know that due to the slowdown in China's economy, commodity prices have fallen sharply. It's not just oil, it's copper, it's everything. Almost everything.
Almost everything. And I know we're also at the end of a big cycle, a price cycle , but now that China is doing this pullback, it's having a huge effect. So where are we on deflation? Europe seems very vulnerable. China seems vulnerable. And if they were to devaluation again, for example, well, actually, that's what they're doing.
there. We saw a huge weakening of the exchange rate today, and it looks like it wants to weaken further. And yes , this really exports deflation. And yes, I think Janet Yellen will have a hard time reaching her 2 % target. And yes, that's one of the reasons why I think we're going to have very moderate, uh, rate increases this year.
but it's not something that will get out of control. I don't think most experts are paying attention to what's happening with oil again. I mean, oil is falling to 20. That's another step down. But if we get stability in oil prices, then core inflation levels, they, they , they are not quite at two, but much closer to it and show no signs of weakening significantly.
So, uh, I still don't see deflation as such, but achieving the 2% target may remain a challenge. And if the U.S. economy or the stock market performs the way you're suggesting, uh, that will help the global economy as a whole. But there are people who say that the global economy may already be in a recession, or at least that it is coming.
What do you think about this? Well, emerging market countries are in the most difficult position, and of course, the biggest difficulties are for those who are producers of these goods. In fact, Europe looks better than it did a year ago. Um, and the US looks no, no, no weaker. I mean, looking at this year, I still see two—two and a half percent.
Uh, and we'll see what happens next. We see labor and productivity, again, not the best indicators for labor market growth because of this productivity factor. And Japan is not, uh, you know, Abe's revival plan is coming along very slowly, but, uh, I don't see a recession there. Uh , emerging markets are the most problematic in this group, and since their domestic growth rate is much higher, a recession in China is again a 3-4% GDP growth.
So, uh, and like I said, India still looks very, very strong. So I, I, I don't see a global recession in 2016. Thank you very much for joining us. Glad to be here.
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