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jamie dimon the ceo of jp morgan chase recently made a statement that's sending shockwaves throughout the financial industry that's markets here that can change just like that welcome to the peak performance channel the place where you come to be inspired to create a more prosperous future i'm here with another finance news update and today jp morgan chase ceo jamie dimon has warned that there's a hurricane coming and that the us economy is in for a rough ride we all know it's hard to predict a recession it doesn't matter what the economy or stock market are doing there are always people who say there will be a crash but they're usually wrong the u.s has only had 12 noteworthy recessions since the end of world war ii in 1945.
that's about one recession every six years but it seems like today's decline is more dramatic what does this mean for you and your money stay tuned to find out before we go any further make sure you hit that like button smash the subscribe button and turn on notifications so you won't miss a single video also be sure to watch our other videos jimmy diamond has been described as a master of risk management and one of the best bankers of his generation he's credited with helping to save jp morgan chase during the financial crisis of 2007-2008 by making several acquisitions including that of bear stearns under diamond's leadership jp morgan chase has become one of the most profitable banks in the world so here's the news earlier on wednesday jamie urged investors to prepare themselves for some turbulence in the market in the following weeks he warned that extraordinary financial circumstances were creating a potential hurricane for the economy he said that things like the russian invasion of ukraine and the federal reserve's moves to tighten monetary policy could lead to chaotic conditions in the market it's a hurricane right now it's kind of sunny things are doing fine everyone thinks the fed can handle this diamond said during a conference that hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way he added we just don't know if it's a minor one or super storm sandy or andrew or something like that you better brace yourself diamond alluded to hurricane sandy a storm described by national geographic as a raging freak of nature that caused widespread devastation knocked out electricity for many families and forced companies to close for lengthy periods of time from the caribbean to the united states east coast stocks have been hammered since late last year beginning with high-flying tech companies as investors braced for the end of the federal reserve's cheap money period inflation is at multi-decade highs aggravated by supply chain disruptions and the coronavirus pandemic so there is concern that the fed could unwittingly push the economy into recession as it combats price hikes while markets have recovered from a dramatic drop in recent weeks on hopes that inflation is slowing diamond appear to shatter such hopes diamonds worried about two factors the first is that the federal reserve has said it will start to reduce its emergency bond buying programs and shrink its balance sheet this is called quantitative tightening or qt it's going to start this month and it will gradually increase until it's at 95 billion dollars a month the other large factor worrying diamond is the ukraine war and its impact on commodities including food and fuel diamond predicts that oil prices will go up because of the disruptions caused by the worst european conflict since world war ii potentially reaching 150 dollars or 175 dollars a barrel wars go bad they go south with unintended consequences diamond said we're not taking the proper actions to protect europe from what's going to happen to oil in the short run the federal reserve is expected to start selling its almost nine trillion dollars in bond holdings this month in a process known as quantitative tightening and central bank officials are also expected to raise interest rates by half a percentage point at a meeting later this month the fed is cutting off the flow of cheap money that was available during the pandemic they're also tightening credit this has been done in order to bring down consumer prices to more acceptable levels however their hawkish policy shift has made investors scared they worry that this will lead to a recession one of the first things this report points out is that in the past economic cycles have always shown similar symptoms before a recession for example when you see a labor market that goes from being cool to hot and when you see a monetary policy stance that goes from being loose to tight it usually means that the recession is coming that's what's happening today too we started with sky-high unemployment rates in 2008 and now we have the tightest labour market ever hey here's a quick reminder before we continue make sure you smash that like button and hit the subscribe button and notification button so that youtube sends you more of these kinds of videos and it helps our channel but now let's get back to the video today we finally have treasury yields this is one of the most reliable and consistent predictors of recession the treasury yield curve shows when recessions are always preceded by a flat or inverted yield curve this usually happens about 12 months before the downturn begins right now this number reads 175 which puts us around 30 to 36 months away from a recession this doesn't mean we're headed for a recession soon but it's something to keep an eye on the curve is headed towards that zero line but it's still got a ways to go so putting that all together there's still more than a year and we might have a recession the labour market is very tight but the fed has only talked about raising interest rates the important treasury yield curves are not inverted or flat which makes it difficult to understand what's happening some people say that we're not going to have a recession for a long time others think it could happen anytime after all we just went through a pandemic and a war so it's hard to know what will happen so back to our question what does this mean for you and your money if diamond and other top money managers are a little worried it makes sense that you need their advice even if they are correct the economy remains strong the united states does not enter an international war and china relaxes its strict government 19 lockdowns freeing up supplies and perhaps lowering inflation but still it seems reasonable to be careful just in case however data from the guggenheim partners implies that the recession is still years away because the labor market is still tight we may see some turbulence in the near future but it doesn't seem like a hurricane is coming anytime soon so there you have it a brief rundown of jamie dimon's hurricane warning and what it could mean for the economy while he is a highly successful businessman he is not an economist and his projections should be taken with a grain of salt thank you for being all ears throughout the entire video if you'd like to learn more about the nature of this business subscribe now and click on the notification bell to be updated with my latest uploads to create is effort the copy is genius albert einstein if you want to expand your income by engaging with some side hustles feel free to contact me so we'll get things moving right away remember if you want to change your life let's make a change together you need to make a change
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