저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 과열·버블 우려와 블랙웰 지연 루머로 상승 여력이 제한적이라는 시각. 빅테크 CapEx가 엔비디아로 흘러가는 구조는 유지되나 지속성은 불확실. 마이크로소프트를 1순위, TSMC를 2순위로 제시하고 애플·엔비디아도 언급. 엔비디아 RSI 69, 과매수 해소 후 62~94 구간 조정 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
All right, so the question is that everybody wants to know is two-part. How how far will the stock market fall, right? So they can know when to get in, and then also a lot of companies are down, right? Um Nvidia is down over 25% Microso- Microsoft is down, Apple is down. Um TSM TSM is down over 20%.
Yep. Out of all of those like major blue-chip companies, what's the what what's the most attractive right now in this down market that we're in? Um I would go Microsoft first, TSM second, Nvidia third. Really? I'm here to give truth. If y'all have The commoditie they I don't care. Y'all should have been I told you when it was going to fall.
Yeah. And notice when everybody start copying on CNBC and some of you internet gurus, um everyone's like it's easy analysis. I'm like, why didn't you say it 2 months ago? Like if a company goes up 11x over a 2 or 3-year period, how many deviations does it have to revert to the mean for the price to level up?
So I think the Nvidia move right now is overvalued. I think TSM may be underpriced. Now, who's going to win in the end? Microsoft. Cuz they have relationships on both sides. They're buying from both cartels, so they'll be fine. But I will put TSM as second. For everybody in Stock Club, do not panic.
Our price is our price. If I made you money, please put yes in chat. But um normally when move I'm not looking for the obvious investment. I'm looking for a contrarian investment. And unless China overtakes, I don't think it'll happen this year, maybe next. Please. Please. I hope not. Cuz if not, we really we Y2K didn't happen, but Y225 fool if they get if they get TSM.
that's over with. 2030 or something like that. Maybe hopefully never, but at least by that time when we have foundries here on on our own soil. So Microsoft is the most attractive thing that you see right now? Hands down. See, I'm going to disagree with you. Okay? And I'm going to put Nvidia still at number one.
Um Okay, why? Well, a couple of reasons. Um and Microsoft is part of the reason. If you we're talking about CapEx, and even when Microsoft reported, that was an issue. And Amazon reported, that's when I was like, all right, this is glaring. This is clear. And Meta as well. But Microsoft uh Amazon specifically, which we know is my is my favorite company, um when I was looking at the spendings, and I'm like, well, they have increased spending by 43%.
I'm like, wow. Well, where did it go? Yep. AI innovation. Who are they spending it with? Of course, you you got to spend it with FAANG. Right? So you spend it with them. There's that's Amazon. Well, then you go into Microsoft, and same thing. CapEx. We already obviously already know there's relationship with OpenAI, which is getting We got to keep an eye on that relationship, because it's it's get it it feels like something tricky is about to happen.
But again, AI innovation, who are they spending it with? Nvidia. And if Sam Altman, if you think you're going to run off with the plug of Microsoft, feels They'll put you on a plane with Boeing first. No, I think he's trying to run off with the plane. You can try. You're going to be on Boeing 820 rubles.
Right? And so now you got Amazon, you got Microsoft, and now Meta. Again, when you they already told you their commitment to it to to the spending. And they've said, look, we're in the beginning stages of this. We're not slowing down for a second, right? And so you got these three major huge mega cap.
We're talking about trillion-dollar valuations or market caps. If all of them are spending with this person, that person still remains dominant to me. The fact that it's come down under 90, and we kind of hinted at it last week when we were like, what what's the number? We we hinted at it. Now that it's down at I think it hit 94 today.
I was on the plane. Pissed. I'm like, oh my gosh. Yeah. I like it at this number, um and so I put them at number one. I have TSM at three. And I'm I'm I'm I'm going to move Apple back in there. Yeah, of course. Even with the sell-off from the Oracle of Omaha, I still like Apple. We we got to talk about it.
The the service business, when I looked at their earnings, I said, oh my gosh. You're talking about 83 billion. I mean, how many companies even have that valuation, which is ridiculous. But the technology inside of the new 16 from what everybody's saying, and I know this is still in the beta phase, is that this isn't one of those situations where, oh, I'll wait to get the next phone.
If you want to have the capabilities, you have to get this phone. Yeah. So I'm throwing them in there. And then I'll put TSM. So so if I think I'm really quick. Speaking of capabilities though, you still have Nvidia being number one even though they put Blackwell on hold? They didn't put it on hold.
Cap. What do the kids say? All right. All right. All right. So this is good. I'm glad you said that. So It There are rumblings. The rumblings are that it's being delayed. They're not going to be shipped out at the same capacity that they said they were going to. They're still going to be shipped out at the end of this year.
It won't be at the same level of capacity. And it has to do with TSM really. TSM does it They're trying to keep up with the demand and have the the the actual technology that they need to create those chips for Blackwell. Yeah. It's super challenging. And so they're trying to keep up with the demand, which now again, supply chain situation now.
They have to That's damn sad when Ja Rule put out Clapback. Yeah. It it it's it's tricky because the the slogan was new product every year. And the first year that you announce it, we're having a delay on the first product. So that is a little shaky. So um okay. For Nvidia, they are facing an antitrust lawsuit.
Um Florida-based hedge fund with $70 billion in assets sent a letter to their clients recently saying mega mega-cap technology stocks were in a bubble. And it was very skeptical that big tech companies would keep buying chip makers' graphics processing units, GPUs, in such high volume. Hedge fund warns um that chip stocks may be in a bubble, which have enjoyed huge rally from driven investors fevering over generative AI.
Um so long story short, they they were they're bullish on they're bearish on Nvidia. They said that it's overhyped bubble. Um the demand is going to slow down. And like I said, they have um they have a pending lawsuit from the government, antitrust. Sounds good. You got to go kiss the Listen, y'all already sold 2 million bricks.
They're going to sue y'all off of Blackwell like Hov did back in the day. It's okay. It's okay. The truth is there going to be some slowdown? As the person that made this a catalyst stock, y'all It's a tweet. Now, is it going to fall to the floor? No. Okay. No, absolutely not. But is there going to be a Like it's all Okay, I'll ask you guys.
Have you ever seen a company have 7x growth every year over year for a 5- or 6-year period? We're Like take the stock and product out of it. We're entering a mathematical anomaly. Mhm. I don't know if you remember, but remember when I um I was talking about Ripple, and then I also was saying that like, you know, um when Ripple got to to point where its market cap made the CEO like the fifth richest person in the world, and it just really didn't make sense.
And then I was saying like, you know, I just didn't think that Nvidia was a more Like when they had mar- when they had market caps in the in there bigger than every company in the world, damn near. Google, Amazon. I just don't think that Nvidia is a is a company that is more valuable than a lot of these companies that they have higher valuations than.
It just At a certain point in time Such as what which one? Who is Who would you put in there? Well, Name And then we'll have a conversation about the AI bubble being true and over. I just don't think that Nvidia is a a more important company like in the grand scheme of life right now than what Google has built or Amazon has built.
At one point in time, they had they were more valuable than Apple. Like I mean, you know, it's it's it's difficult. Like, you know what I mean? It's like somebody that just got drafted, and they're already in the goat conversation. LeBron? After 2 years. But I'm saying LeBron, that's 20 years. So it's like, all right, so if you So now they're saying Anthony Edwards is better than Michael Jordan, right?
If he won a title in the first 2 3 years, maybe. If he came out the gate and won Okay, this is the truth. Nvidia is is powering all the major tech companies. At some point though, if Blackwell does not come out at the speed that it needs to, yeah, somebody could take that lead. That lead could go to TSM.
We're in a battle of the like that was AI 1.0. That's what Microsoft Copilot runs off of. Everyone reads there. It's still contingent though, right? Like so it's still contingent on TSM producing. So they ask they need each other. Until they don't. Until Nvidia decides that With that, I mean, the Until they don't.
It's an inevitable Nvidia cannot Number three rule in branding, you cannot be attached to a supplier for a long period of time if you want to be the preeminent leader in the world. Apple went through this. But like, you got to detach and make your own stuff on ground, especially you trying to get to the point now.
Now you you That was the point I was going to. It was like, yes, they will detach, right? And then if they detach, which is going to take 10 years, right? To even get to the technology. What happens to the revenue if you're not spending with the company that is building your chips? Yeah. The revenue goes up.
The valuation is going to go even higher. If everybody That's why I said, if it's a slowdown, then go read Meta's earnings report. Go Go read Microsoft's. Go read Amazon's. Go read Apple's. Where is their capex going? If it's a slowdown, then those companies wouldn't be spending at that levels that they are.
And each of those CEOs said that we're not slowing down anytime soon. Yep. Also, too, y'all know historically I've hated RSI, but if we look at the RSI on the monthly My real numbers is 95 and five. It's the last like big 95 five What What's Which one are you looking at? What company? Um Nvidia. Where is it at?
Currently, they're currently at 69 right now. So, if we're going off mathematical averages, they should pull back for 62 to 94 days as a result. Great buying opportunity if it if it gets there. Um but we have been oversold. And I do agree with the valuation metric, but we have to have a bigger conversation.
In corporate America, enough companies are not producing that really matters. That's my issue. So, if they are the supplier, the cartel to all the tech monopolies, and only seven companies can really buy from them, what about the mid-tier companies that are falling apart? Where have low profit margins, 3% profit margin.
You can't run a company off 3% profit margin. Why did you ask that question? You know, rate No No great rate cuts. So, we we spoke about data dump, and the question The answer to that question is the number two supply. So, even during this pullback, if you watch AMD over the past week, 2 weeks, Yep.
it's been kind of steady. It's actually been up maybe two or three percent Yep. of some of that issue. But, I agree with you, right? And we kind of went over this a few weeks ago, but we have to get to the point where they're going to have to start seeing the byproduct of the spend. Mhm. Right? Has it increased efficiency?
Probably. Has it increased revenue? We don't know. Well, the only time will tell. Only time will tell.
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