저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 관세 정책으로 시장 불확실성이 커졌고 주가가 하락했다. 향후 3~6개월은 불확실성이 지속될 것으로 보며 협상 결과가 나올 때까지 기다려야 한다. 인도 등 일부 신흥국은 상대적으로 강하고 중국은 협상 결과에 따라 부진할 수 있다. 현재 자금의 약 90~95%를 현금으로 보유하며 S&P500 인덱스 소액 투자와 신흥국 주식을 조심스럽게 살펴보는 중이다. 시장이 더 떨어지면 자금을 투입할 계획이다.
다듬은 글
And he promised a market boom like no other. But suffice to say, it's been damage like no other. How are you assessing Trump's first 100 days? Well, I think the first thing we must remember that he has made revolutionary changes that affect not only the US but the world. It's an amazing feat that he's accomplished in the sense that he's upset the apple cart, so to speak.
So we're now in a new era, a new way of thinking about politics, about economics and so forth. So the first thing that comes to mind is that we've got to get used to all new order, a new way of thinking. And also, we've got to get used to uncertainty. We think uncertainty will continue for the next three, four or five, six months, and we've got to get used to it.
Now, when you have a situation like this, of course it opens up opportunities. We've seen the market come down, some stocks and looking very attractive and most particularly countries like India will be benefiting from what's happened with China and the other countries that will benefit. So some of these emerging market countries will do quite well in this environment, but we have to wait until all of this evens out and we see a settling down of this uncertainty.
Mark, you talk about a new way of thinking. Suffice to say that, you know, the market thinking has kind of seen a rewiring. Talk to us about the psyche of the investor right now. Is it about fundamentals? Is it about, you know, keeping up with the headlines? How have things changed in the way markets stay in the way investors think?
Well, of course, as soon as Trump made the announcements regarding tariffs, the first thing he did, of course, was create this great uncertainty and the market came down. We're looking at 20%, depending. What are you looking at? Now, usually when you have a drop like that, people start thinking, oh, maybe we should start picking up a little bit, or at least not selling anymore.
And I think we've reached this point now. The next step, of course, is to assess what comes next, where the opportunities are. Obviously, some companies are going to benefit from this tariff situation globally and some will not. So what we're doing is looking at the whole picture globally and saying, okay, let's make an assessment of what we can expect going forward.
And what that means, of course, is a totally new way of looking at trade. Looking at politics and looking at economics. What gives you the optimism this will pan out the way you're expecting? Well, I think we have to be patient. We have to wait for the next two, three, four months to see how this whole pans out.
You know, one of the things you must remember with Trump, he is in a bargaining situation. He is trying this, trying that, threatening this, pulling back. So you're going to see more and more of this and negotiation and bargaining taking place. And within the next, I would say 4 to 6 months, this will all pan out and we'll see a settling of what agreements are going to be in various countries.
Do you still maintain that all markets are in player right now, except perhaps China, which is the crux, which is the focus of the trade war with the US. All markets are in play, there's no question about it, because everybody's uncertain. But you can see strength in some of these markets. For example, India is doing quite well, Some of these other markets are doing okay, but at the end of the day, the uncertainty will remain.
And of course, China will be the big question mark if China does not come to the table, if no agreement is reached with China, then I expect China not to do very well. MM How have you been navigating the market? Are you dipping your toes in markets You, you haven't before. What are some of the changes you made in your portfolio and what in particular are you looking out for that will shape how you think you know about where you place your money in the next few months?
At this stage, cash is king So 95% of my money in the funds that are in cash, we're playing a little bit with the S&P 500 index funds just to keep the tune of the market because the S&P is a leader globally. But we're also looking at some of the emerging market stocks, but in a very, very careful way.
I think right now we've got to keep cash and be ready to move when the time is right. But keeping 90% of your funds in cash, it's really, really high. That's possibly the highest I've had so far. Why? Why do that? Aren't there enough opportunities out there for you? Do to do to be deploying your your capital?
Well, when you when you're getting four or 5% with no risk in dollars, you're doing quite well. Of course, we're not going to hold that for the whole time. It's not going to be more than 3 to 4 months where we begin to do more depending on where the market is. If the market comes down first, of course, we will put more money in.
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