저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
현재 이익 성장이 가속 중이며 S&P500 밸류에이션이 연초보다 낮아졌다고 주장. 6월 30일 이후 조정은 일시적이며 중간선거 전후 속도범프 가능성 있으나, 이후 데이터센터·클래리티법 지원으로 AI주 수혜 전망. 시장 하락보다 과열 비판이 중심이며 S&P500 목표 8,400 제시. 대상 종목으로 AMAT, COHR, MU를 2027년 수혜주로 제시(영상 내 '매수 권유' 어조).
다듬은 글
We live in unprecedented times as earnings growth is accelerating—something many would not have believed in their entire lives, but even third- quarter earnings are likely to show nearly 30% growth. And earnings per share revisions from the beginning of this year to 2027 have increased by more than 20%, while the S&P index has not even increased by 20%.
So, the multiplier has actually decreased. If anyone thought the market was expensive at the beginning of the year, it actually became cheaper. And starting on June 30th, I think the markets have been challenging. So part of me thinks that we've gone through a gradual correction, and , you know, we've seen a lot of different groups in decline.
But as for a larger market decline, I still believe that the period from mid- October to the midterm elections could be a “ speed bump .” But our position is that after the midterm elections, Democrats will start supporting data centers and the Clarity Act because, first, data centers usually bring a lot of economic benefits to communities, and the Clarity Act had a lot of support among Democrats.
Therefore, I believe that AI stocks will benefit after the midterm elections, because changes in Congress will actually give the " green light" to some projects. Tom Lee's analysis highlights a critical truth. The market is not collapsing. He is aggressively overrated. Investors who panicked during the software sell-off earlier this year missed a historic buying opportunity.
As Lee predicted, the pullback in the first half of the year turned out to be a temporary correction of 10–20%, rather than a structural decline. On March 30, the S&P 500 index set its cyclical bottom at 6,316 before soaring to the 7,800 level. Those who gave up abandoned their positions right before a massive recovery, while patient capital captured a rally of almost 1,500 points in a matter of months.
Today, a nearly identical " compressed spring" model is being deployed in the broader market. Despite ongoing macroeconomic fluctuations, underlying fundamentals are accelerating at a historic pace. Corporate earnings growth in the third quarter is approaching 30% year-over-year, while earnings per share forecasts for 2027 have been revised upwards by more than 20% since January.
As earnings growth outpaces index appreciation , stock multiples have compressed, making the S&P 500 fundamentally cheaper today than it was at the start of the year, opening a clear path to Lee's 8,400- point target. This momentum is supported by a massive structural rotation. Capital is flowing out of traditional license-dependent software models and into the physical infrastructure of AI.
Hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are supporting this transition by increasing their combined capital expenditures for 2026 to a staggering $700 billion. Looking ahead to 2027, we can identify three key powerhouses that will be the main beneficiaries of this ongoing infrastructure wave.
A semiconductor equipment manufacturer that dominates the field of multilayer structuring and extreme ultraviolet lithography tools. A pioneer in optical networking, whose revenue share from next-generation 800G and 1.6T transceiver modules is doubling year-on-year. A leader in memory technology, leveraging unprecedented demand for high-speed memory to dramatically increase gross margins.
First on the list is semiconductor equipment titan Applied Materials, ticker AMAT, which occupies the entry-level wafer manufacturing position in the global chip supply chain. Applied Materials provides the core materials engineering systems that make modern AI equipment possible, including advanced atomic layer deposition, precision plasma etching, chemical mechanical polishing, and inspection tools.
Without these machines, chipmakers would not be able to produce the complex logic architectures, extreme ultraviolet lithography nodes, or high-speed memory chips that power advanced artificial intelligence workloads. The company's recent financial results reflect a significant acceleration in underlying demand.
Applied Materials reported $9.12 billion in revenue in the third quarter, up 25% year-over-year, comfortably beating consensus estimates of $110.71 million . Fundamental profitability has shown structural expansion, marking 13 consecutive quarters of year-over-year gross margin growth to 49.4% over the past 12 months, coupled with an excellent operating margin of 31.22%.
Looking ahead, management forecasts further acceleration of revenue growth in the fourth quarter to 51% year- over-year, with gross margin (non-GAAP) increasing to 50.4% and operating margin reaching 34.99%. Seeking Alpha metrics reinforce this strength, projecting EBIT growth of 27.48% and long-term earnings per share (EPS) growth of 30.91%.
Beyond short-term results, Applied Materials secures its multi-year growth path through strategic global investments and deep industrial integration. The company recently committed $5 billion over the next decade to build a 140- acre advanced semiconductor research science park in India, creating clean rooms and collaborative R& D centers with major customers.
At the same time, its dependence on revenue from the Chinese market has decreased from 35% to 28%, which reduces the risks associated with regulatory export controls . After a temporary pullback that lowered price-to- earnings and price-to- earnings growth multiples, Applied Materials presents an extremely attractive operating model, supported by a flawless balance sheet , $8.40 billion of operating cash flow, and a dominant position at the center of the semiconductor equipment ecosystem.
Moving from chip-making tools directly to data center interconnects, our second stock is optical networking pioneer Coherent Corp, ticker COHR. Coherent is evolving from a simple component supplier into a critical end-to-end connectivity platform enabling the era of artificial intelligence. As AI clusters scale to thousands of interconnected GPUs , legacy copper connections face serious power consumption and overheating issues.
Light- based optical connections solve this problem by transmitting huge amounts of data at higher speeds with much higher energy efficiency. Coherent is addressing this critical challenge with a broad portfolio of technologies spanning indium phosphide lasers, vertical cavity lasers, silicon photonics, and advanced detectors.
Their strategic innovation, Photon Link, allows the company to combine these separate elements into fully integrated optical subsystems. Moving up the value chain allows Coherent to earn higher profits from testing and integration, deepening collaboration with customers across the entire optical stack.
The company's recent operating results highlight this growing market presence. Coherent reported record fourth-quarter revenue of $2.05 billion, up 42% year- over-year (YoY), driven largely by its data center business, which accounts for nearly 80 % of total sales. Annual revenue rose 23% to $7.12 billion , while gross margin (non-GAAP) reached a record 40.2% , reflecting a strong pricing advantage.
Seeking Alpha's financials further reflect this momentum, showcasing a revenue growth forecast of 36.44% and an expected EBITDA growth of 47.00%. In the near term, growth is provided by mass production of 1.6 terabit transceivers and the expansion of the use of optical co-packeting technology. To meet demand, Coherent is doubling its capacity to produce 6- inch indium phosphide wafers, which already outperform older 3-inch lines.
Demand visibility remains exceptionally high: capacity for fiscal year 2027 is fully booked and long-term purchase agreements are in place until the end of the decade. Operating in a market where cloud hyperscalers are driving capital expenditures to $700 billion , Coherent's move into high-value optical subsystems puts it at the center of AI infrastructure development.
Rounding out our physical infrastructure trio by combining high-speed connectivity with massive memory architecture, our third stock is memory technology leader Micron Technology (ticker: MU). Micron is a semiconductor memory titan located right at the epicenter of the global AI computing stack. In addition to pure computing power, today's advanced AI models and agent workloads critically depend on memory bandwidth and data storage density.
Micron manufactures high-performance dynamic random access memory and enterprise solid-state drives, providing the high- bandwidth architectures needed for peak performance of ultra-fast GPUs. The company's recent quarterly results demonstrate unprecedented growth dynamics in revenue and profits. Micron reported record net income of $54.23 billion—a staggering 379% year-over- year increase, driven by DRAM sales of $39.8 billion and NAND sales of $14.1 billion.
Operating profitability reached extraordinary heights, delivering a record consolidated gross margin of 87.0% and non-GAAP earnings per share of $33.42. Looking ahead, management provided a record-breaking forecast for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, expecting revenue of $61.5 billion and setting a minimum gross margin of 86.25%.
Seeking Alpha metrics underscore this multi-year acceleration, projecting forward revenue growth of over 103% and forward long-term earnings per share growth of 192%. Importantly, Micron is turning its historical cyclicality into a highly predictable multi-year growth story. The company has 26 strategic customer deals that deliver 35% of total revenue by 2030, backed by $150 billion in outstanding commitments and $32 billion in customer financial commitments.
Its high-bandwidth memory manufacturing capacity is almost fully contracted through 2027 at higher prices, complemented by a leading-edge partnership with Nvidia to co- develop next- generation memory architectures. With $33.2 billion in free cash flow in a single quarter and increasing capital returns after the second anniversary of the Chip Act deal, Micron is becoming an extremely powerful tool to harness the next wave of data center expansion and physical AI.
As the structural shift from legacy software to a $700 billion+ physical AI infrastructure accelerates, these three hardware giants offer direct leverage for the next decade of computing power growth. Take positions before the market fully factors in this 2027 potential explosion. Subscribe now and stay tuned for our next in-depth analytical reviews.
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