저자: Cy · 외국인
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솔라 섹터 급락(2023.10.20 기준) 배경을 설명. SolarEdge의 유럽 수요 둔화 및 3분기 가이던스 하향으로 ENPH도 프리마켓 약 13% 하락. 금리 고점이 주택 태양광·EV 등 재량 소비 수요를 억누르고 있다고 진단. 단기적으로는 수요 역풍이 있으나 장기 성장 테제(전기요금 대비 태양광 회수기간 약 10년, 25년 수명)는 유효하다고 봄. ENPH 2024 예상 PER 약 15.7배로 밸류에이션 부담은 낮다고 주장. 기술적으로 $92 지지선을 주시.
다듬은 글
what's up everyone it's Cy with moneybest so let's talk a little bit about nphase energy stock and more specifically Sor companies because they are getting smacked right now premarket uh dropping quite aggressively end phas is down over 133% we got solar Edge down a little bit over 29 30% at the moment and that Invesco solar ETF tan is down over 8% at the moment sun run we're going to take a look at all of them so don't you worry Sun Run's down a little bit over 8% uh as well so there's a lot of companies in this uh renewable energy space that are selling off quite aggressively so we're going to break everything down in this video it's kind of funny that I was done recording my market update video last night uh pretty much yesterday and as soon as I get done recording as soon as I put my microphone down solar Edge comes out with their Catalyst takes down end phase with it and the entire analysis that I did on N phase during that market update is no longer helpful uh but in this video I'm going to break everything down as always if you enjoy it and again links to our Discord and patreon is going to be down below we love to have you on board there is a 16% anual discount that's available till the end of this month and again you get access to all these stock reports you get access to all the members only private videos uh get access to everything that's going to be included uh with the link down below so first things first let's take a look at what actually happen so solar stocks Tumbl to a three-year low as solar Edge drops 25% on demand warning so this is what they released uh yesterday October 19 2023 solar Edge announces preliminary Financial results will announce the entire Financial results on Wednesday November 1st but uh they pretty much suggested that the demand is coming in U significantly lower more specifically in Europe right not not in North America but in Europe is what they are seeing demand slowing down so they mentioned and I quote uh during the second second part of the third quarter 2023 we experienced substantial unexpected cancellations and pushouts of existing backlog from our European Distributors and we attribute these cancellations and pushouts to higher than expected inventory in the channels and so slower than expected insulation rates in particular insulation rates for the third quarter were much slower at the end of the summer and in September where traditionally there is a rise in installation rates so you know that's what we are dealing with here as a result third quarter Revenue gross margins and operating income will be below the low end of the prior guidance range right so not only on the lower end of that range but below the lower end of that guidance range and additionally the company anticipates significantly lower revenues in the fourth quarter for 20123 as the inventory destocking process continues and that is not what investors want to hear right I mean saying things like they anticipate significantly lower revenues in the fourth quarter uh Revenue gross margins operating income coming in below the lower end of the guidance uh you know basically using words like cancellations and you know uh coming in with lower than expected insulation rates I mean I mean the stock sold off pretty aggressively on this very much very news right so SG uh pre-market right now it's down over 30% now uh aggressively selling off now I do think that this is very much of an overreaction from Wall Street as well because Wall Street as we know tends to be very very shortterm focused uh and I'll get to that in just a minute because a lot of these companies that were talking about right solar renewable energy companies the thesis is not a few weeks or a few quarters or a few months right the thesis really is longterm we're talking years as this transition towards solar and renewable energy happens over the course of several years so in the third quarter Revenue they're now expecting to be in the range of$ 720 to $730 million uh and that's significantly lower than the prior guidance of $880 and 920 million and the Gap gross margin is now expected to be within range of 19 to 20% and not Gap gross margin now expected to be around 20.1 and 21.1% compared to 28 to 31% so they are certainly getting affected both on the revenue side on the margin side and operating loss is now expected within range of 9 to 28 million and non-gaap operating income now expected between 12 and 31 million compared to the previous expectations of5 to 135 million like that's a dramatic dramatic move uh to the downside crazy 115 now to 12 million that's over a 80% decline in operating income on a non-gap basis so and know solar Edge obviously selling off over 30% all on the back of this lower demand lower margins and lower guidance uh from the company now a lot of it is macro driven you know as we know so these right here are the numbers if anybody wants to take a look but uh Goldman Sachs downgraded solar Edge to neutral from Buy on Friday and the firm said that the weak demand environment in Europe poses questions for the company heading in 2024 and is a much larger issue that than just seasonality than just seasonality and after a second straight disappointing quarter of results and guidance we find it hard to defend the stock we underestimated the effects of the combination of ongoing inventory and market demand and now margin issues that are likely to U serve as headwinds for the stock for the foreseeable future given what H what appears to be a significant deterioration in visibility as well and a lot of people of course investors are anticipating that INF is going to go through something very similar and as a result they're already knocking it down further uh to 100 bucks down over 133% premarket before the earnings even come out because that's really how the markets work solar Edge coming out with their numbers uh you know guiding us lower significantly and and posting really really bad numbers unfortunately is is knocking down end phase as well prior the numbers are even out because they're expecting the numbers are going to be very similar and end phase is going to go through another quarter of margin compression uh you know poor guidance or maybe even slowing growth on a year-over-year basis now as I said earlier I think it's important for us to understand the game that we're playing right Wall Street plays a very short-term game all right they only want to hold on to stocks that are going to have the potential to beat the market over the next one year right that's why we have price targets for the next 12 months that's why we have this always this constant argument or this uh indicator of whether you've beaten the market or not right that's a big difference between institutional and Retail institutional is positioned for the shortterm retail is positioned for the longterm and that's why we kind of go through these es and flows where if the earnings are missed if the revenues are missed I mean think about think about Tesla right from yesterday's uh selloff over 10% is Tesla's thesis dead for the next 10 years no if n is n phases thesis dead for the next 10 years from a long-term perspective no it's just from a shortterm perspective from a macro angle given how high rates are and it's becoming increasingly more difficult for people to finance solar panels for finance micro inverters Finance electric vehicles that we are going through a time period where demand is going to pull back right it's it's just how things work if if interest rates are higher the cost of boring is higher people are going to pull back on Demand right the focus is very much going to be on on necessities and right now uh things like electric vehicles and and solar panels even though there is an energy transition that's happening in the background this is still not a necessity this is a discretionary spend for most people right installing $20,000 worth of solar panels it's not it's not something that everyone can do given how high rates are when most people are financing this purchase same goes true with electric vehicles so the macro environment has a very very big role to play when it comes to companies like Tesla when it comes to companies like inas even Nvidia AMD to some extent uh and I mentioned this specifically in our yesterday's uh update in our Discord that higher interest rates are going to indeed affect companies uh that that haven't been around in this for a long time like in other words N phas Tesla have never experienced interest rates as high as they are because you know we're seeing rates as high as they are in over 16 years right the 10e yield hasn't hit over 5% in 16 years since 2007 and Tesla n phas have not really experienced that level of um economic tightening in their lifetime right so it's going to be a new environment it's going to be a new reality for these companies to set in now but I still want to go over you know what the long-term thesis looks like so elect bills are expensive and if you take a look at uh the national average price of electricity in June 2023 this was 17 cents per kilowatt hour um and after the 30% Federal solar tax credits available Nationwide the average price of electricity produced by solar systems purchased through solar.com between typically around 8 cents uh per kilowatt hour so this right here is where we are at the moment for the electricity cost in 2023 uh you know it ranges anywhere between 9 cents to as much as 30 cents per kilowatt hour California Alaska New York Connecticut some of the you know Northeast sort of the east coast and the West Coast more specifically California being some of the more expensive States when it comes to the Grid electricity grid and that's where a lot of the Market's going to tap in eventually right once uh once interest rates start to roll over uh we're going to see some more potential demand come back in for solar panels and micro inverters this is grid versus solar electricity cost over a span of 40 or no 20 years and uh what you'll notice is that the break even Point uh is around 10 years because you know once you finance the the only cost really with respect to solar panels and microinverters is the financing cost everything else is generated by the sun right that's why you're collecting all that energy you're storing all that energy and you're using all that energy with with a great electricity you're paying every single month and uh this is a you know kind of like a decent analysis of course depends on a Case by case basis but over a 20year span uh you'd be spending a little bit over 41 ,000 for great electricity versus just under $21,000 um over a 20year span for solar systems and micro inverters now this number can change and this number will change depending on financing right again if interest rates are higher um it starts to become less attractive to finance a solar system and micro inverter um and it makes more sense to just simply stick with the grid but like I said it's a very macro driven company right very macro driven demand uh because at the end of the day it's still discretionary it's not really something that people right now consider to be as Necessities but if there are more tax subsidies if there's more um you know tax credits on solar then there is possibility that people are more inclined towards buying solar panels versus using electricity um from their grid and there's other factors that could improve these savings over a life lifespan of solar panels and that is that more solar equipment is warranted for 25 years and lasts much longer than that solar panels increase your homes value and Grid electricity also uh increase over time the rates also increase over time as well and B&B parabus also uh you know cutting the price Target down to $131 there's been a lot of price cuts on uh on N phase and uh they've now got an average rating of outperform and a price Target ranging from $84 to $240 $48 um from analyst ped by Capital IQ so that's where we are um for n phase for you know a lot of different companies and you know this is the uh technical analysis that we were looking at and right now pre-market n phase is sub $100 trading at 9989 so this is a level that we haven't quite seen for n phase since October of 2020 so it's hitting a three-year low uh but we've got a support of 92 bucks so that's right here is going to be that next support level uh to watch for nase energy and and considering you know where we are with this stock right now so if you go over to Seeking Alpha um and if you figure out let's just do like five bucks five bucks is really the earnings expect expectations or forecast for this year so if you come over to earnings expectations here on an annual basis um $5 is that EPS right let's just say that they cut their guidance by 25% right let's just say that they're sitting at $4 um at 99 bucks right divided by four we're looking at 24 A2 times earnings multiple at five we're looking at under 20 um at 450 we're looking at 22 so you know end phase right now on a 2023 basis is sitting at anywhere between 19 and 20 5 times earnings multiple which to me seems to be like quite reasonable right from an earnings multiple standpoint considering that the earnings are still going to grow at over 20% uh for the company and if you take a look at the future forecast uh Beyond 2023 2024 629 all the way up to 795 to as much as 954 so on 2024 basis 99 divided by 630 we're looking at a p multiple of 15 15.7 um for nphase energy so you know it's really going to come down to how we're positioned institutions position for the short term like I said if the company's not going to do well they are going to get sold off similar to what we have witnessed with Tesla similar to what we have witnessed for meta similar to what we have witnessed for so many different companies that have gone through this cycle where if it doesn't fit the narrative for Wall Street they are going to get rid of it and going to include something that is going to perform better over the next 6 months 12 months but it all comes down to you know having that time Horizon of whether it's short-term or long-term yes short-term there's a lot of headwinds for Tesla and N phase but then we have to ask ourselves right are we investing in this company Long Term or is this mostly a trade uh for the short term so hope you guys enjoyed this video I'm going to watch $92 as a very strong support and right now we're breaking down below this uh green support green rectangle since uh you know threeyear low for n phas and a lot of other companies of course in the Solar sector selling off quite aggressively so we'll see what happens intraday do we get bought up or do we sell off even further but uh but again if you want to join our Discord and our patreon link is going to be down below we love to have you on board and uh as always is Happy investing I'll see you all in the next video
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