저자: Katie · 외국인
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9월 JOLTS 구인건수 9.61M으로 예상 상회, 노동시장 강세→연준 고금리 장기화 우려로 10시 이후 증시 급락. 미국채 10년물 4.78%로 상승. 헤지펀드 S&P500 선물 대량 청산, 약세 심리 확산 및 Goldman 'Selling 압력 막바지' 언급. 달리오는 10년물 5%까지 가능성 언급, 현금 선호. 300억 달러 규모 국채 입찰 공급 부담. 연준 추가 25bp 인상 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
what's up everyone it's Katie with money vest so in this video I'm gonna break down the Joel's numbers that came out earlier today which basically sparked a sell-off in the market and I'm gonna go over and break down and explain to you guys exactly why that happened some comments from Ray dalio and of course we have to talk about the bond market because man it's getting out of hand we are seeing the 10-year yields of course continue to Rally now at over 4.7 and a half percent and there is possibility that we do see highs of five percent if not higher as there continues to be more and more auctions in the US with respect to the level of debt that's hitting the market and who's gonna buy that who is going to buy it you tell me because I don't know but as always if you enjoyed this video link to our Discord on patreon is going to be down below would love to have you on board the first week of the month is the best time to choice and of course you want to make smarter decisions find out exactly what we're buying when we're buying it of course how returning options intrinsic value spreadsheets research reports everything is going to be part of the money vest community and our Discord so Link's gonna be down below and we'd love to have you on board so first things first let's talk about the Joel's numbers 9.6 9.61 million job openings in the month of August that's a pretty significant number it consists of 8.75 so we are definitely coming in with a huge shocking surprise on the upside now the reason why this is a bit of a problem now if you come over to where the markets are but I'm going to just uh get rid of these if you come over to where the markets are at the moment they started selling off right at 10 am and and to the point where if you basically go over the five minute chart on the NASDAQ I'm just getting another alert on the 10-year yields I don't know if you guys can see this but this right here is the alert that just went off with the US 10 year Crossing 4.778 getting up to 4.78 but this right here is the 9 55 am and this is the big candle at 10 am right so this is literally the 10 a.m candle where NASDAQ dropped a little bit over 60 basis points and from those levels we are down over 1.68 if you come over to the S P 500 in other words spy this is the 10 AM candle 10 AM Eastern Kendall when Joel's numbers came out and since those levels we are down another 1.25 and the Dow Jones also dropped a little bit over 110 points at 10 am and from those levels we're down 375 points so it's not a surprise that as soon as Joel's numbers came out with such a shocking print uh we saw the markets rotate back lower and not to mention the us-10y which is the 10-year yields started pushing higher right at 10 am as well so this right here was a 10 AM Kindle and since then we have pushed up over almost two percent uh and now they're sitting at 4.785 percent up a little bit over 2.2 percent there's a lot for us to break down and unpack in this video I want you guys to watch it all the way through the end to get a better understanding on what the heck is going on because we're hitting the highest levels from 07.
now 9.61 million is the number of job openings if I plug this number in to our spreadsheet our unemployment spreadsheet which we've been tracking for quite some time right now we know that it's 8.9 which was the previous number so 8.92 was a prior number which is my revised up to 8.92 if he plugged in plug in the number of 9.61 look what happens to this ratio I want you guys to focus on this ratio specifically not worry about anything else just focus on this ratio right here so 9.61 hit enter it goes up to 1.51 meaning now there's more job openings per person than there were a one month ago right what does that tell us that continues to tell us that their businesses are hiring and there is opportunity for employees to once again find good jobs it's this ratio if it goes up that tells us that there are more jobs available per person right the moment this ratio starts to drop below one is what the Federal Reserve wants they want this ratio to hit an equilibrium equilibrium meaning the demand and Supply in the jobs Market they want this to be balanced and right now it is not balanced because there's more job openings compared to the number of people looking for jobs and until this number comes down to more modest one levels preferably under one is when we can start to expect the Federal Reserve to pull back from interest rate hikes because if this is 1.51 right and Joel's number is at 9.6 or even as high as 10 million and unemployed persons stays at 6.3 or 5 or 4 well you better believe it that continues to suggest the economy is strong the labor Market's strong and well guess what that paves the way for the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer if anything raise rates continue to raise rates if inflation doesn't come down fast enough right what we want from a rate cut perspective is for Joel's numbers to come down right a better print would have been from 8.2 million down to let's say 7.5 then this ratio would have been a 1.18 now imagine if this number would have been at seven it would have been 1.1 this number comes down to six we're now sitting at under one right that's what the Federal Reserve wants they want an equilibrium in the labor market with the demand and supply of jobs unfortunately we did not get that well we did get 9.61 which brings this ratio back above 1.5 now unemployment numbers are going to come out on Friday that's the first Friday of the week first Friday of the month and we better believe it if this unemployed persons goes down right if it goes down to 6 million or if it goes down to 5 million if it goes down to 4 million you better believe it markets are not going to like that one bit they're absolutely not gonna like it what we want to see is unemployed persons go up seven eight million nine million so that the ratio continues to come down right that's exactly what the Federal Reserve is trying to do they're trying to compress this ratio which has obviously come down from 2.5 down to 1.5 now but of course we did see an uptick in this ratio so that was the main reason uh now going over to some of the catalysts here uh Traders done to record 40 billion dollars of stock futures in the past week that is a record um so hedge funds that used managed Futures strategies uh recently unround positions in the S P 500 futures at the greatest speed and magnitude on record is what Goldman Sachs mentioned and uh with the most of these positions now squared away Goldman claims quote we are closer to the end of the selling pressure than not negative Market sentiment is everywhere having a bearish Outlook is gaining traction possibly consensus that has doubled since July and bears now outnumber the Bulls 1.5 to 1.
where are you guys where are the Bulls at where's where's the balls at it's all theirs right now it's all bears territories and right now they do outnumber the Walls by 1.5 to 1. and this right here was the Catalyst that also came out earlier today redalio says the 10-year treasury yield could rise to five percent and there's risk that it goes even higher and Ray value obviously a very very renowned and popular macro investors uh you know I like to look at what he's talking about I like to listen to what he's talking about almost all the times because he you know looks at the big picture he connects the dots really well and he focuses on the macro thesis which is again the economy and how they are kind of comparing against with the debt levels credit crises all those different things and there is obviously a level of deficit risk that he's mentioned and we've talked about this in one of our previous videos where the Dallas W said that imbalance of government's debt supply and demand picture also caused yields to go higher yields and prices move in opposite directions as we already know but because of that imbalance you know it is not um surprising that we're seeing the yields get up to as high as four point seven and a half percent and of course they're they're sitting at their highest level since October of 07.
he further Goes On by saying that quote we have an abnormal amount of Supply the situation in that the quantity of debt that we have to sell and the amount of government has to sell is a lot and it remains a lot and buyers are less inclined to buy the debt for a variety of reasons now the widely followed investors believe that in the current environment cash looks to be relatively appealing uh dalio of course have been calling crash caches trash but since the purchasing power of cash diminishes amid Rising inflation but he changes point of view earlier this year because money market funds you know even your normal online savings accounts are paying you a positive real interest rates considering how inflation has come down and interest rates have gone up so as a result it has something like a 1.5 real return not bad in comparison to other things and it doesn't have price risk meaning that it doesn't move all that much right bonds if you buy bonds of course it's got the price risk because as yields go higher prices continue to come down and you'll have an unrealized loss on the portfolio but of course you can hold it till mature to get your principal back but it does definitely does have that price risk in the short term so because of this deficit risk we've talked about the supply demand imbalance in the treasury market and to make matters worse the US government has another 300 billion dollars of issuance of treasuries hitting the markets this week so we got auction dates on October 3rd October 4th October 5th 5th the 10th the 10th and the third right so all these are hitting the markets offering amounts gonna be right there so that's another 300 billion dollars coming our way investors away um that needs to be absorbed if not then of course that's going to be oversupply prices continue to struggle and yields continue to go higher so you know it's just one of those things where it's just a matter of patience and being disciplined because uh you know yields are obviously moving higher these are levels that we haven't seen in 16 years but at some point we're gonna start to find ourselves more normalized once the US starts to uh you know slow down on their on their amount of auctions that they're doing and at the same time of course Federal Reserve needs to make a decision after looking at inflation data unemployment numbers whether they need to raise rates you know stay them keep them where they are or start cutting rates but you know for some reason I do believe that one more rate hike is possible I know I've been getting a lot of you know sort of a what is it called some pushback on that assumption or that analysis that the Federal Reserve is probably not going to do that but look guys I mean given how strong the economy is with the Jules numbers coming in so strong in that ratio once again popping back above 1.5 if inflation doesn't come down to two percent you know the Federal Reserve is going to use that opportunity it's gonna they're basically punishing the economy for being too strong that's what they're doing I've mentioned this before but you know it's possible in my opinion it is it is still a likely possibility that 25 basis points is still on the cards before the end of the year so hope you guys enjoyed this video let me know your thoughts down in the comment section below be patient I think it's going to take some time for the markets to normalize a little bit here because you know we're seeing a pretty significant sell-off here now side down about 1.7 we've got the S P 500 down a little bit over 1.4 starting to break down below 42 4300 here and that you know uptrend Channel and the Dow Jones is down a little bit over 400 points with of course the 10-year yields hitting uh highs of 4.78 so hope you guys enjoyed it found helpful make sure you drop a like subscribe to the channel link to our Discord patreon is going to be down below happy investing and I'll see you all in the next video take care
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