저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
BMNR의 mNAV 0.97은 낮아 매수 기회이며 Tom Lee의 자사주 매입이 주가를 지지한다고 주장. ETH 보유량(약 580만 개) 기반 스테이킹 수익과 BMNR 장기 전망을 강조. 로빈후드 체인이 토큰화 주식 수수료로 큰 수익을 낼 것이라며 HOOD 장기 매수를 시사하고, 리퀴드 파밍(MaxFi) 홍보 비중이 큼. 여름 크립토 겨울 후 11~12월 반등을 예상하나 횡보도 언급.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone. Something very interesting just happened with BMR, even today. By the way, NAV, MNAV—the highest I've seen: 0.97. All those buybacks that Tom Lee has been doing over the last two weeks have really helped. In fact, ETH fell a bit today, which we will now look at. And MNAV has not decreased.
MNAV remains at the same level. That's what I'm talking about. As we approach the " crypto spring", people will be a little more willing to buy BMR. So, that's exactly what's happening. They are starting to understand what it is and they understand that Tom Lee and company are supporting him. I mean, this is absolutely fantastic.
We didn't fall below that mark, we reached 98, which is almost equal to NAV. We'll break down what NAV is, because you guys don't understand it yet. So the more I think about it , the more I'm leaning towards the idea that BMR will probably outperform ETH at some point, and perhaps significantly. So if you want to buy ETH or are considering BMR, first, if you bought when the MNAV was as low as I said, it would be a break-even opportunity ; you would close the position by almost 18–19 points.
Think about it. You got 18–19 points more than ETH. That's when you should have bought. Every time MNAV dropped that low, it was essentially time to start buying BMR. And every time he came back, especially with all these ransoms . They have now issued a press release, which we will now review. So this is just to get everyone on the same page, and then we'll go over some other things that are actually pretty important because there's something going on on the Robinhood network that's really helping ETH.
But we also might have to start looking at Robinhood as a token or a stock to buy, because what Robinhood is doing is actually quite extraordinary. And I'm also going to go into detail about that. But if we look at what's going on here, that's the only thing that's a little confusing. The total amount of cash and marketable securities of $104 million continues to fall each month.
And they didn't make any redemptions this month. None. OK. What they really did was buy some ETH. Only about $7,000 in ETH, down from $ 10,000 last month. So, cash is gradually decreasing. How many more buybacks will they be able to make? Well, I don't know. They only have about 100 million left. They can take this ETH, take out a loan against it, and buy back a lot of shares.
This is good news. But is it necessary to do this when the MNAV is 0.97? No, no need. Maybe they're mostly done shopping. So, overall, the week was pretty quiet, with no major events. They looked at some numbers. In general, they just discussed these things. They talked about how staking revenues look good.
Everything looks good. Although the main thing that was talked about this week was staking income; they have already staked over 5 million of the 5.8 million ETH they have. The projected rewards for ETH staking are $294 million, which is quite impressive. And if the price of ETH doubles, that's 600 million again - crazy numbers, they're in good shape.
Let's look at a few more things that I think are important. Bitmine owns more ETH than the other 67 strategic reserves combined. ETH strategic reserves currently stand at 8.25 million ETH across 68 organizations. So, Bitmine alone owns 5.8 million ETH. This is a real giant, which people don't expect .
Bitmine now owns 2.3 million ETH more than any other strategic company . It's just unbelievable how much ETH they hold. They really put themselves in an advantageous position. The real BMR thesis is much broader than just owning 5%ETH. This was actually very interesting. Which, actually, was my argument too.
At an ETH price of $5,000, they will earn $800 million per year. At an ETH price of $10,000, they will earn $1.6 billion per year. This is turning into a real giant. Now the most interesting thing: the base 6 million ETH will be worth approximately 30 billion at a price of 5,000 and 60 billion at a price of 10,000, respectively.
And that will bring in 1.6 million in staking rewards alone. This is not including Maven and other projects, as well as other investments in the ETH ecosystem together with ETH Labs. Frankly , I think they will make about two to two and a half billion dollars at that point, which would probably be a better investment than just holding ETH if you buy at MNAV at a low price.
So, if you have a long-term vision for ETH and a long-term vision for BMR, that's where their potential lies. Now you might say, “Well, it won’t move until October or November. Can I just buy it then? I would probably answer, "Yes, you probably could, because I was honest with you." The reality is that , you know, ETH historically doesn't move until October- November.
So let's listen to this. I am considering opening a very large position in Robinhood because of what I have seen them do online with the Robinhood chain. This is fueling ETH and I just see what they are doing. And I will tell you about what they do. This is very impressive. So I want you guys to listen to this quickly.
This only lasts a minute. What he's talking about is very, very powerful. Robinhood's potential here is simply huge. Therefore, the largest financial services company in 10 years could reach the size of the current "Magic Seven" (Mag 7). Is n't that right? Good. So, if I think about the size of the "magic seven" in 10 years, I think it would take $10 trillion to enter that club .
Right. So, one of these companies—it could be JP Morgan, it could be Robinhood— will become one of the " magic seven," you know. Any other ones that... You can just say, "Hey, Apple has customer relationships, Google and Meta have customer relationships, Robinhood could be one of the top five companies in customer relationships." And in a world where Robinhood becomes one of the " magic seven" or something like that in 10 years, and 10 trillion is the entry price into that club, then for Robinhood this is a 100x increase from the current level.
Yes. And Robinhood probably won't consume much capital. They can buy back a lot of shares during this time. So in reality the result should be better than 100x because the number of shares may decrease. And Robinhood is really buying back a lot of stocks. Um, they really are redeeming. And that's something else.
We'll break it all down very quickly now , but I just want to show you this . Our national debt, guys. Good. All these things, all these things, when you look at them and put them together. National debt. When you look at all of this, everything points to you needing to own cryptocurrency, whether it's ETH or Bitcoin, engage in liquid farming, or do something to have an active income that is growing.
If you don't develop while the national debt explodes before our eyes , like never before, that's $2.5 trillion a year added to the national debt. Yes, it may cause more inflation, but at the same time, inflation didn't stop Bitcoin from growing 6 or 7 times the last cycle, and it won't stop it from doing so again.
And ETH won't hurt. The thing is , this time ETH is becoming much more powerful, and I think it will show even higher numbers, even despite the inflation rate. BlackRock increases its BMR position for the third consecutive quarter. Well, why is that? Because they have analysts telling them it's a bear market.
This is the time to buy and BMR will outperform ETH. And also many of these guys can't buy ETH. They have to buy BMR as a proxy asset. So, BlackRock is increasing its BMR position for the third consecutive quarter. Well, let's see. Bit increased its position by a significant 146% in the second quarter, bringing its holdings to 27 million shares.
So they have 27 million shares, while BMR has bought back about 16 million of its own shares. These are the things that squeeze MNAV. Also think about this. That's exactly what it did. And you can see that it all started with 3 million. Now it is 27 million. In addition to these 27 million, BMR itself bought back 16 million.
I mean, the potential here, especially if Tom Lee starts doing buybacks over time, is pretty big . If you want me to consider Robinhood as a stock, I think we should do that. I think Robinhood's potential is huge. I mean, you see Robinhood CEO Vlad believes that Hood has several paths to becoming 10x bigger, while Tom Lee is talking about potential growth of a hundred times .
We'll quickly get to that now. Before I get to Robinhood, I will say that it is a very powerful thing. Many of you have been asking me when BMR will be available on the Robinhood chain, here. This is the Robinhood chain. The thing is, we do n't know. And you ask me what to do besides this. Listen, there are many different ways.
I get messages about this literally every day: when BMR will be on the Robinhood chain, because I know some of you want to add it to your pairs and use it for liquidity farming. But I'll tell you this : I do liquid farming in everything. I invest in Apple shares. I do USO liquid farming, it's oil. And, by the way, this is a real bet.
I can't believe it. I started just 24 hours ago. We just uploaded, uh, USO, about two, no, yeah, two days ago. 48 hours ago . Uh, I'm already out of range. I had to expand my range. I actually just created another position just to see, the rates are crazy because USO has such high trading volume. When you become a liquid farmer, you become like Jane Street.
You become a market maker. This is how we get these commissions from trading volume. So there are a whole bunch of tutorials. I will post links below, even to video tutorials at Passive Income Labs. And yes, you can do this even with QQQ. So I would advise those people who are watching and waiting for the BMR, don't wait for it.
I'm going to show you something different. So, there are two ways to do this. You can place wrapped ETH with MSTR, which yields an excellent interest rate. You can do this or you can also deposit ETH from Coinbase now, I have both options. I have Coinbase and I have MSTR. MSTR actually shows better results when it comes to metrics.
So maybe I really should make the switch. Wow, that's a big difference. So, yes, you can choose where you want to invest. And that's a wonderful thing. This is simply liquid farming. We become market makers. You get these rates. I will post all the links from MaxFi below. It's a revolutionary system that allows , you know, institutional level , uh, essentially LP- farming for the masses.
This essentially democratized everything going on with liquid farming, which was previously very complicated. This made it much easier for people. And you can learn more about it. So again , I don't know when BMR will come out. I don't know. Literally two or three people write me personal messages every day.
When is BMR? I don't know. I don't know. Hopefully soon. Hopefully soon. You guys are smart. Do you know why you are smart? Because if you bet BMR with ETH, it's a proxy, right? So you essentially get all the profit, just like with ETH and MSTR, and then you get that income as well. So, you get both profit and income.
You guys are smart. I'm waiting for that too. Believe me, I want this. I want to be able to capitalize interest. And that's what's cool about things like this. You can take these rewards and reinvest them. So, you earn more MSTR. You will earn more ETH. You will earn more BMR. You will earn more Coinbase or Apple shares.
And that's why you need liquid farming. You build up your profits, you grow your capital, it gets bigger and bigger, and you become quite wealthy doing this for a few years. That's the game here. This game didn't exist until Robinhood brought it. Robinhood. That's why I talk so much about Robinhood.
Crypto market maker Wintermute launches US broker-dealer. OK. Crypto is moving to the side of American broker-dealers as stocks go blockchain and brokers from traditional finance come to crypto. It is, in essence, the intersection of everything. Wintermute’s US arm has registered as a broker-dealer, allowing the crypto trading firm to expand into traditional financial services in the US.
I don't think you understand how big this is. OK. Our long-term belief has always been that digital asset markets will evolve in more than one direction. In fact, there will be a whole focus on stocks. If you are not in MaxFi and are not getting returns from these assets, for example, from Apple and all the other stocks, like Nvidia and the rest.
There are about 50-60 stocks there now. A bunch of stocks and ETFs. I don't know, there are about 40 or 50 stocks there now. If you're not out there and making money from it while these guys are positioning themselves, soon the volume will go down and everything is bound to explode. Now, what does this do for ETH?
Well, damn it , guys, wake up. What do you think this will do for ETH? All of this runs on ETH. All of this, absolutely everything, runs on ETH. Microsoft is traded on ETH. Dell is traded on ETH. ESOV, that is, treasury bills, imagine T-bills, do you know how big this market is? That's trillions of dollars.
Gold, silver, all on the ETH rails, all on the Robinhood network. So, this is absolutely monstrous, and the amounts of money that people will make will be enormous. Now if you want me to break down Robinhood or HOOD stocks, because I think I'll open a position there soon. Please tell me what I'm going to do, I'm going to buy this online.
I'm not going to buy stocks. I'm going to buy tokenized shares and put them in a liquidity pool, where I'll probably open a position for $5,000 or $10,000. And then what I'm going to do is this: I'm going to reinvest the rewards, like you've seen me do with Apple stock and others. The more rewards, the more HOOD I earn, and I continue to capitalize on it.
For me, once HOOD starts growing, I will make more than just holding HOOD for the next 5 years because it will not grow 100x or 10x in the next five years. Well, maybe in five years it will do 10x, but it will take time. It won't happen automatically, that's what I mean . So, let's talk about this. Why did Robinhood create its own blockchain and how does it help ETH?
Okay. First of all, I realized that the infrastructure controlled by Robinhood is much larger than we thought. Okay. Robinhood can customize the network for tokenized stocks, ETFs, and cryptocurrencies. Okay, that's good. But when they do this, they also get more commissions every time we buy or sell those specific cryptocurrencies, meaning they will make more profit.
Also, what we noticed on their backend is that if there is no liquidity for a particular stock or ETF , they sell it and mint an additional token, stock or ETF to satisfy the market, and charge almost 1% commission for that . So, their commissions are extraordinary. And this is because they control the network.
Tom Lee said that Robinhood could make a billion dollars on this network in a year. Isn't this madness? They just created this network. For them, it's a billion- dollar-a-year business. But I think over the next five years this is how they can achieve 10x growth , maybe 100x. What if this network becomes so powerful and it grows, and I'll show you more data on how fast it grows.
What if this network brings in $2, $ 3, $4 billion in revenue per year? It is possible. What else do they do? They capture most of the economy. Owning the infrastructure means that more value stays within the Robinhood ecosystem, instead of flowing to other networks. It's optimized for tokenized assets and yes, that's what they do, and that's important.
Developers, market makers, wallets, and liquidity providers can now build and provide liquidity on the Robin Hood network. MaxFi does just that. I'll show you something else that's really important . Oh, this is TVL, or Total Value Locked , of the Robin Hood network. You see that it is constantly growing and rising higher every day.
This is the total value of all projects in the Robin Hood network. These are absolutely huge figures. I have never seen such a rapid growth rate. This is rare. Compared to other networks, they still have a long way to go . So, if they want to reach the size of Base, ETH or other networks, they are still a long way from that.
But being an early adopter in such a network promises astronomical amounts of money and profits. They only have $474 million . If you look at Base, which is owned by Coinbase, it has 10 times more— $46 billion. And you see it took time even to reach $400 million. In fact, when it all started in July, it took until February of the following year to reach $440 million.
And then, look, it took a while to get to a billion or a billion and a half. It took a long time for them to even reach five billion. The Robin Hood network can achieve this and significantly exceed such results. The presence of stocks on the network, the flow of liquidity through these stocks, ETFs, commodities—it's absolutely tremendous .
Robin Hood controls all of this and makes money from the entire process, including liquidity, market making, sales, and overall control. And their traders can do many different things. If a certain token goes up too much or the price of the shares becomes higher than the real value, they can sell them because they have a stock of assets.
So they can sell them, make a huge profit, and buy them back on local or stock markets. There are so many things they can do that no one else can replicate. It's absolutely brilliant what they're doing. If you want me to cover this in more detail, please write in the comments. Apart from that, things are looking good.
In general, this is a typical summer cryptowinter. That's all. Before the end of winter, this is a very, very typical picture. The price will simply move sideways for the next couple of months. And, you know, some people say it will go lower before it grows. But I think we've already hit rock bottom, guys.
Could there be a small, you know, pullback to, say, 700? Yes, it is possible. But I think most people, rational people, not just anyone, are looking at crypto cycles. Each cryptocycle is unique. If we look back a little , let's do it quickly. The reason we had this decline last time was FTX, which caused it to drop from 1800 to 1100.
I don't expect that. In addition, ETH liquidity is now higher than ever before. I don't see such a situation. I think we're in good shape for the most part. I think we will mostly move sideways for the next two months, and then somewhere in November-December we will start to grow, and we will see such a movement.
Also, everything we see with the Robinhood chain and other things around the ETH ecosystem is much stronger now than it was four years ago. You can't even compare this asset or Bitcoin to what it was four years ago. You simply can't . You simply can't . And there is one more thing worth paying attention to.
ETF inflows are still incredibly strong. So, where are we headed? ETF inflows are now returning . Usually, when they start to come back, they become even more powerful. Even inflows into Bitcoin are starting to recover. So, if the tides are turning, things are starting to look good. We have to start getting stronger.
And a drop lower is probably not as realistic as many think, because last time it was massive selling that pushed the price down . This is no longer there. This doesn't happen anymore. I hope this gives you a better understanding of what is happening in the market right now. Anyway, good luck to you guys . Hold on.
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