저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Schiff은 고금리 환경에서 미국 재정, 주식, 부동산, 은행 시스템이 버틸 수 없다고 주장한다. 은행들이 저금리 시기에 매입한 MBS·국채가 큰 평가손실 상태이며, 연준 대출창구에 담보를 맡겨 연명 중이라 지급불능 위험이 크다고 본다. 인플레이션이 잡히지 않으면 연준은 금리를 인하하기 어렵고, 유가는 전략비축유 방출 후에도 상승 중이라는 점을 근거로 든다. 전체적으로 금융위기 임박과 달러 약세·물가 급등 가능성을 경고한다.
다듬은 글
this can't happen this future is impossible there's no way we could get away with this so something has to happen between now and then to prevent this from happening and it's going to be a a crisis see what the markets don't understand is that the entire Foundation right that we've been living on is about to implode it's in the process of imploding beneath our our feet nothing works with normal interest rates let alone High interest rates you can't run these massive deficits with normal interest rates in fact even Janet yell at you know remember when she was asked if she's worried about the debt she said no I'm not because the interest rates are low so who cares about the debt all I care about is the interest payments well look at the interest payments look what's happening why does she still not care about it when she said that I pointed out well interest rates are going to go up up it's inevitable and so the problem is inevitable but the government doesn't work uh with normal interest rates the stock market doesn't work all the companies are levered up too much the real estate market doesn't work with normal interest rates I said that the home mortgages are at 7.9 we could be at 9% in fact I think it's likely we can hit 9% If the Fed doesn't come in and say uncle on the inflation War if if pal continues to act as if he's going to keep fighting inflation we're going to have 9% mortgage rates by the end of this year now that's like a tripling from where they were how can the banks survive the mortgage back Securities are imploding we got a small taste of it when we got the bankruptcy of a few Banks earlier in the year where it was Mark March or so when uh you know we we got three Banks uh the Silicon Valley uh bank or Signature Bank or you know those the banks that were lending to crypto you know they they went down but I said at the time that what happened with these Banks is a problem for all banks because they all loaded up on mortgage back Securities and treasuries again I don't think anybody other than me because I've never heard I never heard anybody saying that stuff but I was warning for all the years that everybody was saying how great it was that Americans could refinance and lock in these low rates I was the only one saying yeah but what about the banks what about the lenders who are stuck with this paper it's a it's a a negative sum game the borrower gain is the lender's loss I was saying what happens when interest rates eventually go up the borrowers are sitting pretty because they've got these cheap loans the lenders are broke because they've got all these underwater assets they own mortgages or treasuries that have collapsed in value rendering them all insolvent that's why when I was talking on my podcast people you know about or people call me up should I buy a house I would say well just make sure you get a 30-year fix rate mortgage because at the end of the day that's going to be your biggest asset your mortgage cuz it's going to be bank's biggest liability so all these banks are insolvent we're about to see another wave of collapses now of course the banks will be able to you know uh postpone the Collapse by going to the fed and giving them all their underwater mortgage back Securities at par right so the the fed's going to have to explode its balance sheet again we're going to have to see a major reversal in quantitative tightening again in quantitative easing to prevent all of these Banks from failing but again when the banks take this bad collateral to the fed and get par for it even though it may only be worth 50 or 60 cents on the dollar this is only short term the FED is supposed to give all these Securities back uh to the Banks and ask for their money back right this is like a short-term thing I forget the date that that all these loans are due but these are loans right the new window that they opened up to saave off that financial crisis earlier in the year they put a Band-Aid you know on a cancer they said look you we'll we'll we'll loan you par even though your securities aren't are worth a fraction of par but we'll loan you the money for a year Well are the banks going to be able to repay these loans of course not they don't want that collateral back they they'd immediately be insolvent the reason not insolvent is because they dumped all that bad debt on the FED but the FED is pretending it's going to give it back to these un insolvent Banks but if it gives it back to the banks they'll be insolvent and so it can't but the when the FED has to admit this again that's you know letting the cat out of the bag but if it continues this then the balance sheet is going to have to explode but then in order to prevent all the banks that took advantage of this from failing pal is going to have to extend the maturity of these loans again he's going to be extending them indefinitely because the banks cannot repay the loans without failing and of course if the banks fail well there's a financial crisis and who's going to bail them out you see if pal is going to continue to fight inflation nobody can get a bailout the minute there's a bailout you stop the inflation fight because inflation is how the FED bails everybody out they bail out Banks or they bail out the e of the government by creating inflation the government is going to have to level with the people and tell them you know what the part's over we got to either massively raise your taxes or we got to slash spending we can't keep spending all this money that we don't have we can't keep giving people Social Security checks because they just take that money and spend it you know people on Social Security aren't working right they're retired so they're not producing but they're spending a lot of money they're driving up prices you want to cut back on inflation you got to take that Social Security money away or you got to take money away from somebody else so the people on Social Security can spend it so either you cut Social Security benefits or you raise the taxes of the people who are paying the Social Security taxes so you got to raise the payroll tax or you got to cut Social Security but the politicians don't want to do either one of those and they didn't have to do anything for years because they could borrow the money instead and the only reason they could do that was because interest rates were rock bottom well they're not Rock Bottom anymore they are normalizing and they're nowhere near where they're going to go we still have a long way to go up people are in denial here right again they expect the FED to cut rates any moment how can they do that where with inflation where it is you know by the way oil was up again today oil is back to almost $91 a barrel and this is with the dollar going up right oil is still going up and stocks the Dow is down 400 points today NASDAQ in even bigger drop down about a percent and a half and oil still went up imagine how what's going to happen to oil if we get a bounce in the stock market if the dollar Falls oil's going to just go straight up we're going to go through a 100 oil prices are not going to stop going up because inflation has driven them up meanwhile we can't sell any more oil from the Strategic petroleum Reserve in fact they need to buy oil from the to refill the reserve and they're going to have to buy it back at a higher price that they sold it's going to be a lousy trade the American public is going to get stuck with a loss now maybe they won't even buy it back for a while they'll just watch the price go up uh before they have to try to uh buy some of that oil back but you can't cut rates the markets don't get this yes the FED slash rates to zero in 200 uh and nine in fact it slashed them to 1% in 2001 after the financial crisis SL slashed them to zero in 2008 and then again in 2020 with covid everybody expects okay the fed's going to slash rates to zero again they can't do that this time the only reason they got away with it is because inflation the way it's measured was under 2% and pal could say well we can print more money we can do QE to stimulate the economy because we're underneath our inflation Target and since we need to get the inflation rate up to 2% we can do this because now we kill two birds with one stone we stimulate the economy plus we push up the inflation rate so that we can get to our Target so quantitative easing stimulus the FED conceded that those policies would push the inflation rate up because that's what they claim they want did they wanted higher inflation so that was the justification but if we have a crisis now if the markets crash and if banks start failing but the inflation doesn't come down how do you justify cutting rates you can't because inflation is too high you can't say well inflation is four or 5% but we're going to create even more of it to try to prop things up that will just crash the dollar uh you know send prices bll sck in fact I think that at some point soon that's going to happen anyway
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