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What's going on everybody? It's Rod with Pow Group. Welcome back in the pursuit of wealth. It's Friday. Happy Friday, December 19th. Another busy week, but we made it. We're going to be discussing in this video a little bit of an unorthodox video. We're going to be discussing the beginning of the end.
So, we're going to be discussing the inevitable bare market that will ensue. Nobody knows when it is. We have a lot of warning signs at the moment. You you can basically cherrypick whatever you want or consider this a sign or this not a sign. Everybody's different. And Michael Bur has been shouting from the rooftops once again.
But as we know, he was he was wrong and then he was wrong and he was right. Right. So he he he was wrong in the timing, but inevitably he saw what was coming and you know it it has to come eventually. You're never going to just keep going up forever. There's going to be a period of, you know, a couple years more than likely where you'll see stocks underperform and you'd be better off probably just holding cash in the long in the long run, right?
because eventually not everybody's traders. People are just going to be holding through any kind of relief rallies and you're not going to be able to to maximize any value on the way down. I think, you know, the market is very frothy. We're probably still uh I think a little ways out yet. Like I think again, nobody has a crystal ball, but we'll go over some of the facts and the warnings that are present at the moment and some of the thoughts from commentary from Michael Bur.
He said on another article, I think it was um last week, but he was warning of the AI bubble that everybody knows that, but he also said that he believed that the healthc care sector was going to be extremely interesting over the coming years while everything else was going to essentially fall into the abyss.
So, we'll discuss all of that and more. And I've got an interesting chart uh chart that I want to share with you here uh towards the end here as well. Before we get to it, make sure to smash the like and uh if you're new, you can subscribe, tick the bell, all that good stuff. You'll be notified on any future videos.
And as always, this isn't financial advice. This is just my own thoughts and opinions. So, don't buy or don't sell. Don't do anything because I say um I'm doing it or anything like that. So, just keep that in mind. I see people all the time just asking people on the internet their thoughts and opinions on what I should do, and they actually go and and take that to heart.
like you really need to do it because you believe in your heart that it's right, right? You can't just or that you have conviction in this stock. You can't just go off somebody else's uh recommendation because when the the whole market is designed to shake you out, right? So, when the times get tough, you're not going to have the the conviction to uh to see it through the other side.
You can also follow us over on X as well, formerly Twitter. The handle for that is grouppow. So again, a little bit of a different style video today, but uh you're seeing all kinds of warning signs lately, and this is the type uh of market where people just start to turn a blind eye to this stuff, right?
They start to justify uh why the bubble's going to continue forever. And it's definitely a bubble. Like, we can't we can't uh deny that fact. Uh the closest thing we can compare it to is the dot bubble. So, I've been comparing it to the dot bubble for a while now, the everything bubble. And you're going to see an interesting chart here in just a moment.
I'm going to get to it at the end and I'll explain it. But as you can see, Nvidia spat with big short investor Murray highlights AI bubble fears. So it's no secret that he's been shouting calling, you know, siren basically ringing the bell saying that this is a bubble. AI is, you know, way overvalued.
It's going to be uh it's going to get pretty ugly. And then there's other facts that Warren Buffett now holds more cash than the Fed. What that signals about the market. So everybody, you know, has a uh different viewpoint on it and reasoning. I think it's because, you know, he understands that this market is pretty frothy.
And when you know, Coinbase, for example, is launching stocks and you've got um, [clears throat] you know, traditional stock brokerages getting into crypto ETFs, you're really seeing the uh the the amalgamation of these two worlds and it's just going to make everything so much more frothy and the the blowoff top even more uh toppy because it's going to be a very very euphoric rally and just a very aggressive finish.
then I think it's going to be an aggressive uh bare market ahead and it's more than likely going to span a couple of years. But again, I think we're still bullish at the moment. Like there's no major red flags. When we confirm a monthly downtrend on SPY, that's when I'll be concerned. But there's no signs of that and we're at least 2 or 3 months minimum before we could even confirm a monthly downtrend.
Maybe it's even three or four. I'd have to check here in just a moment. But yeah, it we're we're nowhere is we're nowhere near like major warning on the chart. So, I still think there's lots of legs left of this bull market. I don't think there's too much like maybe uh a late 2026, early 2027, I think, is the uh the kind of the most likely scenario.
But I think somewhere in the back half of 2026, that's when you more than likely you might even see a sell in May go away kind of phenomenon where, you know, we see the blowoff top or something like that around March, April, and then into May and then into the summer selling May and go away. you see a monthly lower high and then the monthly downtrend and then more than likely a multi-year bare market.
I mean, there's no guarantee, right? The only guarantee is there's no guarantees in the finance world, but again, we can't always say that this time is different. We have to look at the facts and you can't deny everything. Uh it's pretty cut and dry at this point. And like I said, I've been warning about this for uh about a year, but I've also been saying that things are still they still remain bullish.
And until we confirm a monthly downtrend, which we're not, we're hitting new all-time highs on SPY. So, uh, we're not even close to confirming a monthly downtrend. We're still in a monthly uptrend with higher highs. So, big short investor Michael Bur says there is no way to time or predict when the AI bubble will burst.
So, exactly. He, this is case in point, you know, when he was basically calling out the uh, subprime mortgages and the housing bubble and everything. He was wrong for I think it was like a couple years, right? And then he I'd have to look into it, but he was wrong for a long time and he even started to kind of second guess himself for a little bit and then everybody started to turn on him and then boom it started to happen and it's like it's like trickle trickle flood, right?
A little bit nothing happens, nothing happens. A little bit starts to happen and then wo before you know you got a a huge flood. So um here's some of the key points here. Michael Pur said there is no way to predict when the AI bubble will burst. Bur even said uh if the bubble pops, it will likely not be apparent until a year or two later.
Bur said it would be prudent neither to short stocks nor to buy puts at the moment. So, uh again, nobody can predict and I don't I don't think we need to really wait like a year or two. I think you're going to you're going to see it and uh it's more than likely going to be when we confirm a monthly downtrend.
Like, it's that simple. Look what happened in the dot days when we confirmed the monthly downtrend. We had our high here and then we formed a lower high on this bounce and then into a lower low. So as soon as you had that lower low and monthly downtrend confirmed, that was your your your major signal right there, right?
And then that was when we started to uh to fall off the proverbial cliff. So here's the chart that I got for you. So I was looking at this and I was like, "Oh, you know what?" Like thought of doing something interesting. I was like, "Let's look at kind of from the swing low to swing high on the dot bubble bull run.
Now let's look at the swing low to swing high on the everything bubble bull run. So com bubble, AI bubble and everything bubble. Internet of information, internet of value with crypto and blockchain, right? Everything's getting tokenized stocks. Everything's like I said, the merging of two worlds, the stocks and the crypto worlds uh coming together.
You got Coinbase uh going to have stocks now and you got Robin Hood having crypto and uh well simple things like that where you can just buy a crypto, sell a stock. It's so frictionless and seamless. It's literally setting us up for the biggest bull run and the ETFs and everything, right? Hitting uh pension funds and 401ks and TFSAs and all these RSPs.
So, it's a truly par like a complete paradigm shift, right? And uh complete uh setup for I think what is exit liquidity. So, now let's take a look at this. So, remember back in the dot days, they were all screaming bubble 2, bubble two, but it just kept going. It kept going. It was 2,200 days, folks, roughly, give or take, from swing low to swing high on that whole move from the from the all-time high.
And then then we formed a monthly lower high and a lower low. I'll zoom into that in a second. But then from the um from the time it confirmed the monthly downtrend on that lower high, it took it roughly 700 days. So again, I I just have it sitting here because it's sitting there. We didn't confirm the monthly lower high and lower low.
So once we confirm a monthly lower high and lower low like we did in the dotcom days, then we'll take this 700 day rectangle. I think there's a good chance that it happens like I said into the spring we get the lower high more than likely into May and then into the summer falls off a cliff and then it's saying that oh and also the bearish hidden monthly divergence.
You can see here that price peaked about 4 years later and the RSI peaked 4 years prior. And same thing happened here 4 years before and it's actually longer than that now. It was back in 2018. So yeah, we're really due. You can see here we have this hidden bearish RSI divergence and we're probably heading towards monthly oversold just like here.
So, if we use that same kind of target and um mindset and then something similar here with the 700 days, that puts us into you're looking at late 2028, right? So, it's possible that, you know, we could see a couple years of of bare market where we continue to bottom out and then it's saying somewhere around the 360 area is where we could bottom out potentially.
And again, nothing's ever the same. And then look what happened in the dotcom days. We we rallied right into pretty much the all-time high and then it was a double top and then uh bull trap and then we went even down to a lower low from the first low that we had in that bare market and the do days. That's when Amazon dropped 95%.
Right. So there could be another and that's kind of a a wike off accumulation type of pattern. But really it's just a in my opinion a bull trap and then a bear trap and then we resume uh the because markets are design they're always designed to go higher, right? Um, but yeah, as you can see, that puts us into somewhere around 2028, maybe even 2029.
It just depends on how long this bull market gets extended. But I think it's more than likely going to top out in late 2026. So, the back half of 20 26. And then, like I said, you'll see probably a couple years to reach a bottom. Doesn't mean there won't be rallies along the way, right? There'll be some lower highs, right?
You'll see the uh the the es and flows, right? You'll see the the lower highs. there'll be some chances to uh to capitalize on some of those deadcat bounces and and lower highs, but uh just relief rallies, but I do think that, you know, it's going to take a couple of years to bottom out and then how long is it going to take?
That's why there there's a lot of experts saying right now, economists saying the last decade where uh you know, we're we're going to go into a recession, which many believe we already are, and then even maybe a depression where it's just a prolonged period of uh yeah, pain. So, we'll see what happens.
No one has a crystal ball, but I do think that that's the most likely scenario and uh we'll just monitor when we confirm the monthly downtrend. We're still okay on the weekly time frame, but we just had a stochcastic bare cross and then it flipped back bullish, but the MACD still bearish. We're still above the 10e moving average.
And again, when we get so extended beyond these moving averages and this is the weekly 50, 100, and 200 MAS, like we always come back, right? It's it's like the gravitational pull of the earth. We always come back to it and then we test it as support. We lose it. It acts as resistance. We come back to support.
We try to flip it as resistance. We find we stall out. We get above it. Oh, so rally's over. We come into support. We go again. And then look what's happening now. We're getting pretty darn extended on the uh the weekly time frame. Uh definitely history would show that we would usually start to pull back uh around this time.
And then on the daily time frame, you can see we're above all of our daily moving averages still, but these could be set. We already had the golden cross which was way back in June. We could easily be set for a death cross over the coming well based on how far away they are, I would say at least three or four months before that would occur.
But things can happen in a hurry if there's any kind of black swans. But yeah, we have to be ready for that as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of black swan like they've been saying cyber attack for a while. We've already been seeing uh you know that kind of thing. And then you know WW3 seems to be uh crazy uh at the moment.
So, uh, you never know. Uh, there's there's a lot that could happen, but at the end of the day, we can only can control what we can control. And what I'm going to be looking for and what I can control is spotting what when and what the monthly downtrend is and when it occurs. So, I'll be ready to spot that because that's when I think the market is going to enter more than likely a multi-year bare market.
So, again, nobody knows. Just like Michael Bur said, it's impossible to to time or predict it. It'll never be the exactly the same the way it was in the past. But as the saying goes, the like history doesn't always repeat, but it rhymes. And this is rhyming pretty darn close here if you look at everything that I just outlined.
So, and I found this today. I didn't even realize this before the 2200 days from swing low to swing high. So, that's pretty coincidental, right? I don't really believe in coincidences. And uh this just makes the most sense to I mean, I I've been saying for a while now, we're probably going to hit we're going to hit 700 800 on SPY and then I that's when I think we'll see um the the top be in and then you'll probably see an aggressive fall and then like I said, there'll be a monthly period of a bounce relief rally, monthly lower high, then a lower low.
And in order to get that lower high and lower low, you need to like it's going to take some time, right? Let me zoom in here on the dot days so that you know what a monthly downtrend is. So, I'll have to expand this here. So here it is here. So we had our all-time high in 2000. Then we had a monthly lower high and lower low.
Then we lost the EMA 12 as support. And then we saw a bare cross of those monthly EMAs. That in itself is very very bearish. Then like so much confluence, right? The bearish RSI divergence, hidden bearish RSI divergence. We were like severely overbought. And we confirmed the monthly downtrend with the EMA bear cross.
Like you can't even make this stuff up, right? Those three things alone would tell you that yeah, this is probably the top, right? So again, I'll be looking for something similar where we're looking for a high and then we start to pull back. Everybody thinks it's the end. We see a lower high. We test the highs again and everybody's like, "Oh yeah, see told you this AI bubble's going to continue forever with AI promising, you know, the world and universal basic income.
We'll never have to worry about everything anything ever again." So then you have the lower low high and then the lower low. So once we lost that low here in the month of October, that was when we confirmed the monthly downtrend and then we had about a 50% correction from the high to the low. But again, we even went to another lower low after basically testing the highs again.
So again, what we'll be looking for is something similar, which right now we have bull flags on SPY. Um I don't have it on the chart right now because I was drawing out these other ones, but actually I do. So the bull flag is looking at around 704 on the on the uh lower level time frame. And if you use the same kind of mentality, if we see 704, I think we could see maybe even 75800 as the uh the top.
Again, nobody knows what it's going to be, but we'll just look for the monthly downtrend to confirm and we'll know it when we top out and then we form a low. So we have our high low, lower high, and lower low. So when we top out then we start consolidation then we have a higher low and then a lower high and then we lose this low into a lower low that will be monthly downtrend right MDT.
So until we do that I don't think there's anything to worry about. And like I said I think there's still some gas left in the tank for this bull market. And uh yeah it's probably going to carry into uh 2026. And typically when they start to cut rates that's not usually a good sign either. But um yeah, it's uh it's going to be interesting.
You know, we'll watch the all the yield curves and everything like that. We'll look at what other economists are saying, but um yeah, one thing's for sure, I do believe that it's going to be a multi-year bare market because it's just it it only makes sense, right? We've been in a raging bull market really since March of 2020.
And uh some of the biggest gains that you've ever seen, right? Like the S&P 500 is accustomed to around 14% perom, right, on a return basis. So, uh, most people usually make 14% a year and like Spy made like 125% or something like that in in one year, uh, during this crazy bull run from 2020. So, uh, this is not typical.
And, uh, it's got all signs of a bubble written all over it. So, just make sure you understand, make sure you're prepared, make sure you have a plan. That's the number one thing. And, uh, it's not to come on here and be a doomsday or anything like that. It's just to warn people that this will happen and, uh, it's probably not going to be pretty.
So those that uh fail to plan, plan to fail. So make sure you're on the the right side of it. All right, let me know your thoughts and opinions. We'll continue the conversation in the comment section below. It's Rod with Pow Group. Thanks again for joining us in the pursuit of wealth and we'll see you on the next
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