저자: Rod · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 나스닥 급락을 경고하지만, 진행자는 주간 차트상 S&P500이 629 이후 6주 연속 상승 중이며 월봉·일봉 불플래그 목표 850(SPY 기준 758 1차 목표)을 근거로 강세를 유지한다고 주장. 워시 연준 의장 취임 후 단기 급락 뒤 고점 재상승을 예상, 70~80% 확률로 850 부근 도달 전망. 이후 700~675 조정 가능성과 이동평균선 괴리 과열 신호도 언급. 면책 문구 포함.
다듬은 글
Is there a major stock market crash incoming? Michael Burry thinks so. That's what we're going to be discussing in this video. Also, we had news that Kevin Warsh has been confirmed by the Senate as the next Fed chair to replace Powell. And typically, historically, over the last few Fed chairs, the market has sold off dramatically after a new Fed chair was appointed, but then generally recovers and sees another higher high before the blow-off top.
So, we're going to discuss all of that more. I'll dive into the S&P 500. We'll take a look at the chart. I'll give my thoughts and opinions on the technicals and what to expect in terms of the price action in the days, weeks, months ahead. But as always, this isn't financial advice. This is for entertainment purposes only.
For new, you can subscribe, hit the bell, all that good stuff. You'll be notified on any future videos, and you can follow us over on X, formerly Twitter. Handle there is @grouppow. So, Kevin Warsh wins the Senate confirmation as the next Federal Reserve chair. So, I don't think anybody doubted this.
He's very pro-crypto as well. I think overall it's going to be a good thing. I don't think he's going to cut rate rates right away because he was very much questioned and a lot of he he was basically being just inundated with questions about are you going to be Trump's puppet, etc. So, I don't think he's going to come in and cut right away because of that fact.
I think they'll more than likely pause and then we'll see a little bit later on, maybe in a few months, into the end of the year, maybe Q3, Q4 they start to do the rate cuts. But if you look historically over the last couple of Fed chairs, when they were appointed, the market sold off hard. And I'm not just using that as my end-all be-all, right?
That's just one data point. I'll show you on the chart why I think that this could be the case here in just a moment as well. But The Big Short uh himself investor and uh and shortest, he says the Nasdaq is about to resemble a bloody car crash. And he says that the stock market is minutes away from a subs- a substantial pullback.
So, again, he was very much correct in the last 2008 financial crisis, but he was wrong for many, many years, right? He was wrong for a few years, and then he was proven right. So, again, the the market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent. That's very applicable here, and I want to again just use this as an another data point, but it's not the sole reason why I'm basing that, you know, this this off of that this could be the correction that is looming.
It's because of the technicals as well. So, if we take a look at the S&P 500 here on the weekly time frame, this move is all coming from 629. We have no support on the weekly time frame all the way down to 629. So, this is the sixth week in a row that we've bounced, meaning we haven't lost the low of the previous weekly candle, and we haven't consolidated.
So, the next time we do that's going to be the major red flag. So, we don't need to worry about what Michael Burry's saying right now. We don't have to worry about the new Fed chair getting appointed typically selling off. What we do is we just look at the chart, and we say, "Okay, there's a six-week pattern here.
Next week it'll be seven, and typically you do not go in a straight line up forever or a straight line down forever, right? We ebb and flow, and there's higher lows and higher highs, and then lower highs and lower lows in downtrends. So, do you think we're just going to go straight to the moon forever and never look back?
Probably not the case. So, we will anticipate a significant pullback once we start weekly consolidation. What's that, Rod? What's weekly consolidation? I don't understand this stuff. Okay, we'll just bring up the weekly chart. You can do so on TradingView. There's links in the description, and you can use stockcharts.com as well.
It's free, but uh tons of free tools out there. And we just look at the previous weekly candle. It's probably not going to happen this week because stock market's closed, and we closed at an all-time high so far on this weekly candle, but it hasn't closed yet, so but yeah, we're at all-time highs. So, it's probably not going to happen this week, but anything's possible.
So, 714.99 is the key level to hold this week. If that holds this week, then the low of this week becomes the next important level next week. So, let's just say hypothetically today was Friday and the market just closed and the low of this weekly candle was 73183, that would be the new level going into next week.
So, again, if we don't lose the low of last week this week, whatever the low is this week becomes critical support next week. And if we lose that support, then we start weekly consolidation the first time in six or seven weeks. What Whenever it begins, that'll be, you know, that will be what dictates it.
But as of right now, we're on six going on seven. So, it's more than likely going to come over the next couple of weeks and we could even see a bit of a sell the news with regards to the Crypto Clarity Act as well if it gets passed in the markup or if it gets doesn't get passed or delayed. Well, I don't I don't know what the possibilities of that is if it gets delayed, but it would not be good if it got uh rejected because there's probably not going to be enough time to get it done and then get a full Senate floor vote and send it back to the house before the, you know, the August recess, etc.
So, we'll have to wait and see, but again, we just look at the weekly time frame and see when we start weekly consolidation. And as of right now, I told everybody, like this is why I created this channel because, you know, the media would have you believe that the crash was coming a week ago or a month ago or whatever, right?
He's got like a almost a billion-dollar short on Palantir and I think he's like almost 200 billion short on or yeah, he's 200 million short on uh Nvidia roughly and then like 900 and some short million on Palantir. So, he believes that Nasdaq is going to crash like crazy crazy and he believes that we're in the last few months of the dot-com bubble essentially of this AI bubble.
And I would agree with it, crypto, blockchain, AI, it's all extremely overheated, specifically AI though. And uh yeah, the bigger the move up, the bigger the the move down. That's just the way it goes and you're going to have those people that oh, it's never going to crash. We have AI, it's going to make us all productive for the next 10 years.
It's never We're never going to see another bear market for 10 or 20 years. I don't subscribe to that. Um it's actually when people are saying that, that's what makes me even more contrarian and bearish. So, again, doesn't matter what Big Short says, doesn't matter what, you know, happens with the new Fed being appointed, the fact of the matter is this is still a massively bullish chart at the moment.
So, we just confirmed another daily bull flag today on SPY. We had another daily bull flag back here and guess what? This second daily bull flag target matches up with that exact target from the first one at 758. It's also a monthly bull flag, as I mentioned in a previous video, I'll just bring up SPX.
Go to the monthly time frame, it's similar to SPY, it's just it doesn't factor in the dividend. But, as you can see, this is a monthly bull flag here. We'll just remove this so you can see it. So, low, high, higher low, and we just confirmed it with a break to a higher high, and the target is 850. So, 8,500 on here, which would translate to 850 on SPY.
So, we could see from here in terms of percentage, we could still see another 14-15% of upside on the S&P 500. Now, why I agree with this new Fed chair coming in and typically selling off, well, we're daily overbought on SPY, we're now weekly overbought on SPY, so, you know, we're definitely overheated and we haven't consolidated now in 6 weeks since 629.
What I think is the most likely scenario is we continue to hit that 50 758 target, maybe we overshoot it, maybe we undershoot it, but somewhere in this vicinity here, it's coming very, very soon. I would think that we're more than likely going to see a top, and then we're probably going to pull back down to around 700, maybe a flush of 700 down to 675.
Everybody's going to think the bull market is over and that Michael Burry's correct, and then what I think's going to happen is we're going to continue to trend higher to around that 850 mark on SPY, form that blow-off top. We got the new Fed chair coming in, typically, yes, it sells off after, but then it recovers and breaks to a new higher high and a blow-off top.
That would make sense here, and then that would also make sense that the rate cuts come a little bit later in the year because he doesn't want to seem like Trump Trump's puppet. And as we know, Michael Burry is usually early, but he's usually correct, but he's usually early. So again, I think he's just early here, but he will be proven correct, I think, closer to that 850 level.
And again, we have so many things coming, the Clarity Act, um you know, it's the 250th anniversary, we have the midterms coming up in the US. They're not going to want to see the stock market plummeting, you know, ahead of that, in my opinion. Uh there's so many bullish catalysts on the horizon and rate cuts, etc., return to risk on.
So, I do think that, you know, we we could see pretty hefty pullback. When we do, for example, on the weekly timeframe, just a pullback to EMA 12, you'd be looking at a pullback of around 5%. That would bring us to around 700. And then EMA 26 would bring us to around 685, which would be about 7%. So again, I'm not just pulling these numbers out of my my you know what, you know, 700 psychological, also lines up with EMA 12 there on the weekly timeframe, which we are getting pretty extended, we usually gravitate back towards it.
And then EMA 26, like I said, around 685, I could even see as low as 6 675, maybe 650. But those are the low levels, and look how extended we are here on the weekly timeframe. We also just hit ultra overbought on the Pow Algo alerts. So when we're daily and weekly overbought at the same time, we get an alert, and we got that alert today that spy was ultra overbought.
So it's not looking good. Uh definitely, it would just be healthy if we do see a correction from here. But as you can see, we're extended on the weekly timeframe. We already had the stochastic and the MACD bull cross, which has gone parabolic, and we're actually potentially seeing a bear cross here on the stochastic, which is a bit of a red flag.
And look at how extended we are on our weekly moving averages. Look how extended we are on our daily moving averages. We even have a death cross that's forming on the daily timeframe with the 50 very dangerously closing uh closing in upon, rather, on the 200-day moving average. So not looking too hot here at the moment, and look at this, last time we got this extended on the weekly timeframe moving averages, we crashed very hard.
Got extended here, we came back, confirmed it as support, we went again. Look, extended here, we saw a pretty sharp correction as well. Here we got pretty extended, sharp correction. Look at how extended we are now as well. We're about the same distance away from that 50 weekly. Again, it's just moving averages track the price, so they're lagging indicators, but generally we ebb and flow and we gravitate back towards them.
We get extended to the downside, we come back as support, lose it, get extended to the downside a bit, and then we go again. And it's not as apparent on SPY because SPY's just an absolute bull, raging bull since about 2020. But uh yeah, daily time frame as well. Again, look, we've never really got this We've never deviated this far away from the moving averages before on the daily moving average uh on the daily time frame and moving averages since way back in July of 2024.
And like I said, the last time that happened, a pretty big crash ensued. And again, a bear cross and death cross formed on the daily time frame. Something similar is happening now. We're getting this extended, and we could potentially see a death cross forming on the daily time frame. So again, I do think that the market is still extremely bullish.
We're We're We're uber bullish at the moment. But again, once we start weekly consolidation, which I think will more than likely begin shortly after we hit that 758 target, we'll come back down to around 700, 680s ish, and then more than likely form a a higher low on the weekly time frame. And that could even be a weekly bull flag.
I forgot to mention that. So it's a daily multiple daily bull flags and a monthly bull flag. Well, let's look at SPX on the weekly time frame. So if we start weekly consolidation here, this could even be a weekly bull flag. So that would be a daily bull flag, monthly bull flag, and weekly bull flag.
So if we could pull all the way back, theoretically, we could pull all the way back to around 699, 698, and still be looking for a weekly bull flag on SPY. And again, if we just continue higher next week, well, then we adjust this, and then the levels become a little bit different. But again, we just wait until we start weekly consolidation.
Once we start weekly consolidation, that's our swing low to swing high, and then we look at the point three two. It's very simple stuff. It sounds complicated. It's really not. Uh but again, we can factor in all these other things as well. You got Michael Burry you know basically uh screaming uncle, and then you got Kevin Warsh, the new Fed uncle, coming in.
And typically, that's bearish for markets. But again, we can look at the chart, and we can see that we're overheated, and that we're more than likely due for a healthy pullback. So, this is definitely lining up with my thinking that we're going to see a sell-off here after this new Fed chair. But again, typically, we see that blow-off top.
Markets don't end in fear. They end in euphoria. And it's usually uh like I said, after the Fed chair gets appointed, then we start we see a big sell-off and then a recovery. And like I said, with rate cuts coming more than likely, I think that this is just the most likely scenario. I'd probably put it at a 70 to 80 proba- 70 to 80% probability rate that we're going to that 8 to 850 level, and we'll continue to see uh massive upside here in a blow-off top.
But let me know your thoughts and opinions on this in the comment section below. We'll continue the conversation there. It's Rod once again. Appreciate you joining us on the pursuit of wealth. Enjoy the rest of your day, and we'll see you in the next video.
Comments 0