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빌 애크먼이 보유 중인 패니메이(FNMA)·프레디맥(FMCC)을 향후 1~2년 내 약 10배 상승 가능한 2025년 유력 베팅으로 소개. 정부 보유 80% 지분, 막대한 순이익(2023년 약 170억 달러)과 국고 환수 구조, 공적관리(conservatorship) 해제 및 신주 발행 가능성이 핵심 근거. 다만 복잡성이 매우 높고 규제·의회 승인 불확실성이 크며, 진행자 본인은 현재 미보유·관심 단계이며 단순한 성장주 선호를 밝힘.
다듬은 글
earlier today billionaire investor Bill Amman identified two companies that he currently owns that's around his cost basis that he thinks has a potential to roughly 10x in the next year or two or 10 times his money now this makes for what he thinks could be one of the Best Bets in 2025 so if you're if you too are looking for compelling ideas for this new year happy New Year by the way to to understand what is Bill akman investing in where does he find Value and uh if you enjoy educational investment content I appreciate you looking at Bill amman's portfolio he manages persing Square manages over12 billion a lot of household names like Chipotle or Hilton or Nike or alphabet this isn't what he thinks Contex what he owns that he thinks kenx is Freddy Mack and Fanny May Freddy Mack fmcc Fanny May f n ma is are the tickers and earlier he tweeted today as we look toward 2025 one investment in our portfolio stands out for large asymmetric upside versus downside so I thought I would share it so he's talking about this type of 10x potential we have owned Fanny and Freddy Mack common stock for more than a decade today they trade at or around our average cost as such they've not been great Investments to date so he hasn't made money he's been sitting on it for a decade but he thinks that's about to change because with President Trump's second Administration he thinks president Trump likes to make big deals announc one of the biggest deals in history in history and he thinks that the removal of Fanny May and Freddy Mack from conservatorship and the potential stock issuance in the next year or two could get these companies around $34 a share now is that actually a 10x if you were to pencil that out well currently Freddy Mack fmcc currently trades around $3 a share and you can see over this past year Market has been waking up it was previously trading around $1 as president Trump odds were going up and he gets elected jumps to $2 to $3 now Bill amman's talking his book talking about this idea jumping another 30% today same thing with Fanny May $1 for most of this past year just sort of bumping around president Trump gets reelected odds are jumping higher that something's going to happen here some value might get unlocked jumping between $2 and $3 a share once again Bill akman talking his book jumping nearly 40% today now this is the same Fanny May Freddy Mack that was part of the financial crisis you can go watch a movie all about it you know you can go check out uh you know the girl in the bubble bath to understand but quite simply Fanny May is a leading source of financing for Residential Mortgages in the US they are government sponsored and stockholder owned companies so we'll talk about who actually owns it now you might go get googly OD and go like oh my gosh I don't actually understand their business model so I do appreciate the girl in the bubble bubble bath but you you buy loans from lenders that's what they're doing they're not actually providing loans themselves they're buying the loans from lenders they then package those loans and guarantee them as mortgage back Securities that Global Investors then buy so the way to think about it is Fanny May is guaranteeing a basket of these loans that they've purchased from the lenders and in return they get uh uh they don't get Marco Robbie they get a nice fee they get a guarantee fee and currently Fanny May owns or guarantees an estimated one in four single family home mortgage loans or roughly 20% plus of multif Family Mortgage Debt so they own a huge part of the US mortgage Market this is a critical player Fanny May even after all the you know sort of the chaos of the great financial crisis and you see it's still operating at a significant profit you see it's generating around $17 billion doar in net income in 2023 and tens of billions of dollars in revenue and that Revenue as I mentioned earlier that's a guarantee fee that the lenders that they're buying from these lenders pay a recurring fee because they're providing a guarantee on this basket that's then sold to Global Investors so this is a extremely complex business model it's a leverage business model it's tied to the housing market but if you believe this profitability is sustainable I think Bill Amman might be right that it does have huge upside also assuming a huge unlock in terms of How It's run and governed now during the great financial crisis the US Treasury invested via a senior preferred stock offering that effectively gives them 80% of the company since then and there's been this sweep where yeah they generate billions of dollars in profits but it doesn't crew on their balance sheet it doesn't build up think of it is US Treasury said okay we're going to cover you during the great financial crisis but all your future profits they they're just going to get swept to us billions of dollars each year and that's you know since the date of of this filing you know they've received the US Treasury has received $120 billion from Fanny May through this agreement so they've they've made a profit on this and this is where you know once again Bill Amman thinks that Donald Trump ran out of time during his first Administration where he had his treasury secretary minuchin taking steps to sort of unlocking this value where it's no longer completely owned by the US government and completely run by the US government and he thinks that you will see a successful emergence of Fanny and Freddy from conservatorship in the next couple of years during his presidency and that by sort of retaking these companies public maybe some sort of stock issuance as well to further butress their balance sheet because there is sort of a hole right now in their balance sheet because all the cash is currently being swept to the US government so you let's say issue you know tens of billions of dollars a new stock if you did that to give it a fair value he thinks that it'll unlock hundreds of billions of dollars of additional profits on top of the $300 billion in cash that they that the treasury has already received so you're talking about a $600 billion that's you know sort of been will will potentially be received 300 already received 300 that they could receive by sort of selling their shares in the future and he also views it as a potential Optical win because currently Fanny May you know they have these guarantees Fanny and Freddy have these sizable guarantee book you know saying look we we have all these liabilities that we're guaranteeing that's roughly eight trillion that bill amman's calling out well you know if cutting the deficit and cutting you know us liability ities is something that you know president Trump is going to be pushing optically just by taking this public you could be removing that 8 trillion roughly liability from the US government balance sheet so optically it could become a big you know look at what I accomplished a big deal so I I I definitely could see that element that bill amman's talking about announcing you know a huge deal so what are my thoughts on Fanny May Fanny May and Freddy Mack have very similar business models so I'm I'm keeping this you know very highlevel perspective on you know my thoughts recognizing it's a very complex situation three months this follows Harish saying you bring immense value with your unbiased insights and a strong focus on fundamentals the profits I made from just one of your ideas has already covered the premium subscription for several years investing.com so when I think about my personal investment checklist I think about Fanny and Freddy and I think they are extremely complex special situations this is quite unlike most of my portfolio most of my portfolio I'm looking for obvious align management maybe you have the founder at the helm or a CEO that owns 20% of the company a compelling valuation Fanny and Freddy we'll talk about the valuation in just a second I prefer obvious growth potential you know even you I I don't own Tesla but an example with the obvious growth potential is saying yeah they're going to be launching the Optimus robot and that's going to be you know a huge growth Market something where you can easily pencil out yeah this is this is the reason why or management has clearly penciled out yeah this is the reason why this company is going to 2x or 3x over time and it's it's a very low bar for you to think about because it's easy for you to understand you could practically write it in a cray and go okay I understand why this business could be much bigger in the future no blowup risks you know you're talk about things like you know does it have a lot of debt or single customer issue I'm looking for win-win types of setups it's a fairly simple you know and straightforward checklist and I'd say Fanny and Freddy doesn't pass it just because of how complex it is and you don't have the aligned management that said it is possible to you know make room in your Investment Portfolio for special situations and I think this really is a unique and special situation so it is important to have you know maybe consider that every every investor needs to consider what's right for their own portfolio so I'm I don't own any at this point but I'm thinking about it Bill amman's a shrewd investor and this certainly is one of those asymmetric types of bets that is changing and the market clearly is starting to wake up to the odds that this does change and you see that the US Treasury roughly owns 80% and the remaining float of 20% Bill amman's persing Square owns roughly half of so he will you know do quite well making billions of dollars if this does go out of conservatorship in the next year or two and looking at Fanny May you know you could see year-to date around $13 billion in ear ears so let's say ballpark $15 billion in earnings for this business you know a growing net worth what is that worth a lot of uncertainty High complexity let's say a significant discount to the market let's say only 15 times earnings well 15 times earnings on 15 billion dollar in earnings gets to around $225 billion if you assume some delution where they have to issue stock you know because they'll likely issue stock in the next year or two if they indeed go out of conservatorship that does get to around $30 per share you know so that is quite interesting this is at the deeply compelling valuation but there is a lot of uncertainty there are these Capital holes because all this Capital as I already mentioned is being swept you know from the company to the US Treasury and that was part of the policy with during the great financial crisis they said okay we'll take it over but all those profits it's going to sweep to us so you are going to need to see some sort of restructuring recapitalization you know issuing a size amount of stock so the capital markets are going to need to be open where you can issue tens of billions of dollars in new stock for Freddy and Fanny so there is a lot of uncertainty there's the regulatory uncertainty um you know you you have to get the US Treasury to approve probably Congress to approve as well so there's there's all these different elements where you need to make sure the different bodies in power will approve and this this will take time and so far Bill amman's been wrong you know he's been sitting on it for a decade that said he's an extreme shrewd investor and he previously was actually short Fanny and Freddy you know going into 2008 so he made a lot of money on the way down so far he's sort of been sitting on it when it's flat but I I think it's two thoughts two concluding thoughts for you one is I there's a little bit of caution here just because this is immensely complex probably like on a scale of 1 to 10 this is like a 12 type of complexity type of situation incredibly hard and I'm just covering a sort sort of surface level analysis Bill Amman uh has been sitting on this for quite some time and you know he has a history of you know calling out ideas in literally the last week of the year when everyone's on vacation and saying yes here's this idea and causing things to move and you might say that that's him positioning so that way he gets a nice little year-end bonus for himself because he did this same thing with Herbal Life years ago when there was effectively no you know trading volumes and it caused you know Herbal Life stock to fall 40% now he might later on say oh well you know is I was proven right because herb life settled with SEC but at the time I I just can't I I'm a little suspect of the timing of these announcements like he could have either waited for when everyone's back from vacation CU right now it's literally right for new years's once again happy New Year um you know so there is a little bit of that of like hey maybe you are getting that 30% plus boost that said I I do suspect that that he will profit from this I do suspect that you know it it could play out quite favorably uh because it is ultimately something a business an entity that creates value for a lot of families homeowners even renters because you know you you have the the mortgages tied to multif family units because by having something that's guaranteed effectively backed by the US government and Global Investors that can then invest it in in those products you are sort of making an environment that I'd argue were interest rates on those loans knowing that those loans can then be resold to Fanny and Freddy does make it easier and cheaper for firsttime buyers or you know homeowners or apartment owners so I do think that they do have a role in the capital markets it's just going to require some cleaning up it's going to require a lot of uncertainty it may take a couple of years but I do see this and understand why Bill Amman would call this out as one of the best ideas for 2025 and why he's calling it out as having 10x potential it it it makes sense to me uh at this point it's not part of my journey I I think I prefer the simpler ideas but you know recently I called out to my subscribers um a tech company growing at 80% that's founder Le and trading at 20 times free cash flow that's a lot easier for me uh to to sort of understand but you know may maybe I change my mind maybe I I make this a part of you know a small part of my journey I I wouldn't I don't think I'd make this a big part just because it's it's so complex you know the whether or not Congress or the treasury or you know the the entities that oversee them Freddy and Fanny will approve this it's just it's tough to say and so any who I hope this video has been helpful for you talking about a potential compelling idea for 2025
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