Jim Cramer on Intel and IBM post-earnings slump

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인텔 실적 발표 후 주가 하락에 대한 해석. 크레이머는 인텔이 과거 리더에서 밀려나 AMD·엔비디아에 뒤처졌다고 평가하며 기술 경쟁력 약화를 지적함. 실적은 매출이 호조였으나 7나노 공정 지연으로 3나노는 대만 TSMC 위탁 생산 예정이라는 점이 부담으로 제시됨. 주가는 장 마감 전 약 7% 상승했다가 실적 조기 공개 배경(해킹 사건으로 인한 조기 발표)과 기술 우위 상실 우려로 반락한 것으로 설명됨. 크레이머는 PC 수요 호조로 인텔 매출이 늘었다고 보면서도 데이터센터 경쟁력과 기술 리더십이 핵심이라고 강조함. 2023년을 바라봐야 하며 지금 매수는 가치 투자 관점에서 매우 어렵다고 판단함. 인텔의 탄탄한 재무제표는 긍정 요인으로 언급. 인텔이 자체 팹 대신 대만 TSMC에 의존하는 구조는 대만 지정학 리스크와 연결해 우려함. 신임 CEO 팻 겔싱어는 2023년까지도 제품 대부분을 내부 생산할 것이라고 밝혔으나, 3나노 공정 확보가 핵심 과제라고 봄.

다듬은 글

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01. it sounds like maybe you believe that the more important story of the two is going to be intel yes uh it was a sobering call you know they've got a new ceo pat gelsinger who was on the call uh late of vmware 30 years at intel before taking that talk twice about uh being back at home that's how you identified intel uh but home is sobering because home is a place that fell behind amd uh they haven't been able to make this this seven nanometer uh there was hope at the end they discussed about making the three nanometer but that would be offshore they'll be done with taiwan semi it was a sovereign call carl because it was about a company that was the leader that is no longer the leader and they took the stock down themselves because they were uh very uh let's say honest about where they were in terms of production of the most important ship and during a boom time david sometimes you you're on a team and the team doesn't win and it's a team that's one and one and one the intel was the end where the yankees and they're not anymore and it was very tough to listen to they become i don't know the mets well first of all if they become the mets then they're in good shape all right uh and i i i could spend the next two hours going through all the reasons why but this is not wfan and so we will not do that at this moment but i would mention the stock was up what seven percent going into the close because listen to the conference call right but remember they reported the earnings while the market was open uh the reason they state is because of potentially a hack that somebody got a hold of uh of uh through an illicit action that had not involved any unintentional disclosure by the company they got involved of a graphic from the quarterly earnings statement so the company decided to move forward by ten minutes or whatever it might have been it's uh its announcement and so the stock did trade up dramatically on the revenue beat jim so what we're giving up now is really only what it gained in fact not even as much as it gained yesterday prior to the close that's very true and and i think that the people who bought it were just simply looking at the top line and bottom line saying wow intel is participating in this incredible uh chip shortage that's raising everybody's prices i mean pcs have been through the roof right there pcs pcs are amazing uh dell's great uh you um hp's being doing a terrific job uh obviously uh apple the macs are are very very strong i i think that if you want to base uh a theory about pcs that's fine but you really need data center uh and more importantly intel is a technological leader uh so there's a lot of businesses that they compete against amd and nvidia and carl in both cases amd and nvidia won so now pat gelsinger has to be thinking about 2023 uh there are people wanting to think about 2022 but it's 2023 and if they come back uh if you're buying it now for 2023 that is very very difficult because that means you've got a real value you got to see through a great balance sheet uh always a a company that everyone knows is uh let's say a deep in the firmament of semis but the idea that they're not going to build their own fabs and once again another outfit that is dependent upon taiwan center which has about 55 of the foundry space now well all it does is put more pressure on the united states to protect taiwan and people have to understand that in the in the semi world it's the single most important thing not whether restoration hardware rh makes its furniture in china or vietnam it's about protecting taiwan because if taiwan semi were cut off from the united states all the companies all the companies that make chips in this country would find you would see that we don't really make chips we just make decisions but he didn't he did say on the call singer and it was interesting to have him on that call jim as well by 2023 they still expect a majority of their products to be made internally i mean actually the three nanometers the key one data right which they're not anywhere near right that's the three because they've missed the seven yes