저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 금리인상 공포는 과도하며 시장은 여전히 상승 국면으로 본다. 소형주: 소형주는 아직 강세장 초기 단계로 보기엔 이르다고 판단. 강세장 후반 낙관 국면으로 넘어갈 때 소형주 비중을 늘리는 것이 적절하다는 견해. 금리인상: 연준 금리인상이 주식에 나쁘다는 통념은 맞지 않는다고 주장. 지난해 6월 첫 75bp 인상 이후에도 시장은 저점(9월말) 이후 꾸준히 올랐음. 경기 사이클: 현재가 초기인지 후기인지는 확실히 알 수 없다고 인정. 대형 고품질 성장주가 주도하는 현 장세가 바뀌는 시점이 전환 신호라고 봄. 주식시장과 GDP: 주식시장은 경기의 선행지표이며 GDP는 사후 후행지표. 주식이 오르는 것은 경제가 저성장이지만 글로벌하게 성장 중임을 시사. 인플레이션: 미국 주도로 전 세계적으로 하락 중. 경제는 극단적 붐은 아니지만 비관보다 나은 완만한 성장 전망. 정치권: 정치인들의 경제 비관론은 표를 얻기 위한 것이라고 비판. 언급 종목: 개별 종목 언급 없음(소형주·대형 고품질 성장주 등 범주 중심).
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lots of fear about additional rate hikes well fear of the false factors always bullish the fact is the fear in the market now the Fed rate hikes tells you you don't have to worry about it too much you should worry about something other people aren't worrying about people are always asking questions and I get questions sent in to me and uh I'm a little bit almost half blind so I have to wear my glasses if I want to read stuff and so we type them up on these little cards and once a month I read you some and give you real fast answers so this one says seems small stocks of the category have been lagging behind so far do you believe it's time to build up positions now to prepare for the hopefully Uprising let me try to put that into perspective for you real fast no I don't think that's now do I think that comes yes when do I think that comes I think when we get to the point where we're farther along in the bull market in the John Templeton phrase of born on pessimism grow on skepticism mature on optimism and die of euphoria where we're moving from the skepticism into the optimism phase which I don't think is yet but I might be wrong that's the time you do that the reality is that normally and some people get confused with this but normally and this time what drops the most in the bear Market not by individual stock but by category bounces the most in the subsequent bull market that's worked perfectly this time and last time it wasn't small that dropped the most which happens typically when you have a bear Market leading into a big bad recession this time small stocks held up compared to bigger stocks bigger stocks that dropped more they've been bouncing back more that'll continue in my opinion based on the way I look at markets which again I always know I may be wrong but it should continue until we get into a more optimistic part of the bull market phase and get past the skepticism part and so therefore I think it's a little early lots of fear about additional Fed rate hikes would more rate Heights through year-end be automatically bad for stocks the answer is rate hikes overall that means bad for stocks up to now anyway think about that a different way markets higher than it was before they started their rate hikes now before they ever did their first 75 beep rate hike from the FED before the overseas Central Bank started hiking raids the fact is it's only I mean the first 75 basis point rate high three quarters of one percent was in June of last year the market bottomed late September uh it didn't have much Wango Dango effect and they raised rates over and over and over again since then and the Market's been doing just great through all that so if it's been doing just great through that why should worry let me help you think about this different way lots of fear about additional rate hikes well fear of the false factors always bullish the fact is the fear in the market now the Fed rate hikes tells you you don't have to worry about it too much you should worry about something other people aren't worrying about are we in an early cycle or late cycle Market is it potatoes or potatoes I don't know let me try to put that in some perspective for you the it's the only perspective I can get normally categories of stocks to follow most of the bear Market bounce the most in subsequent bull market that's worked perfectly so therefore that's acted since we officially had a bear Market not a big one not a long one but by all the standards of bear markets are typically measured by we had a bear Market I said at the time that it acted in my opinion more like an correction a big correction a bigger correction than we normally ever get within a bull market then it acted like a conventional bear Market but the fact is it was officially bear Market and in that bear Market categories that fell the most out the most in the subsequent but oh by the way let me just be real clear the categories that fell the most aren't the ones that normally fall the most in a bear Market which is why it acted more like a correction in many ways than it acted like a normal bear Market you can say that the Market's also acting like it normally acts after we've had a correction in a light cycle long bull market as if the bear Market that happened wasn't really an interspersing bear Market but instead just a little comma and pause in the ongoing bull market which is it I don't think I'm going to really know the answer is that early secular late cycle until we get to a point which we will get to eventually but I don't think we're getting to any too soon where the categories that are leading the market now namely really big high quality growth in all of its flavors stopped leading the market and other categories start to that's where the punctuation mark in this cycle comes in in my opinion that will tell us the answer to whether we've been in late cycle or early cycle but in the meantime you don't really have to worry about it because it's those categories biggest highest quality growth that's leading the market what's the state of the global economy right now and how's GDP relate to stocks well first the stock market is a leading indicator it's one of the better leading indicators and none of them are perfect but the stock market tends to move before the economy does GDP tends to be measured as a number afterwards it's always a backward looking data series therefore GDP likes the stock market GDP is a number that comes about the economy after the economies happened but the stock market moved before the economy happened now how's the global economy doing right now well I think you know it's doing better people thought because stock market's been doing better than people thought for over nine months now and we're in a bull market and if we're in a bull market and the stock market's Rising that's telling you where the economy is going even though people don't want to believe that the economy overall is low growth someplace is doing better than others which is always true inflation's coming down led by America but coming down around the world which was big fear for so many people for so long and continues to be over all the economies not so bad when people expected it to be terrible it's a slow growth body economy but it's a growing economy globally so as you look forward shy of some new big bad things happening that people aren't currently looking at and as while the Market's Rising you should be expecting the economy to continue doing relatively well not gangbusters but not disaster good enough but not perfect pretty well and better than your friends talk about certainly better than politicians want you to believe because they want you to believe they're going to fix it and you're going to vote for them and don't worry about voting for him anyway foreign
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