저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 은퇴자도 장기 시계로 보면 주식 비중을 높이는 것이 보수적 선택이라는 주장. 주장 1 - 수명 연장: 65세까지 살아남은 사람은 평균 85세까지 살 것으로 보험 추정치가 나오며, 의학 발전으로 기대수명은 더 늘어날 것이라고 설명. 주장 2 - 투자 기간: 65세 이후에도 20~25년 이상의 투자 기간이 남아 있으므로, 단기 안전자산(채권·현금) 중심 접근은 오히려 불리하다고 봄. 주장 3 - 배우자 기준: 배우자가 더 젊거나 건강하면 '마지막 생존자(second to die)'의 긴 시계를 기준으로 삼아야 하며, 짧은 시계로 운용하면 그 사람을 가난하게 만든다고 비판. 주장 4 - 자산군 비교: 유동성 자산군 중 20~30년 기간 수익률에서 주식을 능가한 자산은 없었으며, 주식은 부동산(레버리지 없음), 원자재, 채권, 현금, 암호화폐보다 장기 수익이 높다고 언급. 주장 5 - 변동성 해석: 주식의 변동성은 안전성의 문제가 아니라 본래 특성일 뿐이라고 설명. 리스크 언급: 흡연·마약·과음 등 개인 행동에 따라 기대수명이 줄 수 있다고 짧게 언급. 종목·지수 개별 가격 예측 및 특정 자산 방향 발언은 없음. 전반적으로 주식 비중 확대를 옹호하는 일반론적 메시지.
다듬은 글
fact is if you've made it to 65 you probably not necessarily but you probably have a long time to live and it's probably going to get longer too because in our lifetimes medicine keeps improving Medical Science keeps improving and in fact probably in those 20 years from 65 to 85 it'll keep improving extending the time Horizon out even further this month I'm going to cover bunk number three bunk number three is retirees should be conservative now what do I mean when I say that bunk well what I mean is that what is conservative mean to you well to most people it means things like not having a lot of risky Investments as they see it and instead having very safe Investments and the safe Investments that they see or think about are like bonds and cash a lot the fact of the matter is this concept in our culture started to derived from the days of the American worker when typically the American worker would work until they were about 65.
and then on average died when they were about 70 which is what the little chapter on on this in bunk number three says but over time tied to better food better water Better Health Care in General Medical advances post 65 age retirement people have been living longer and longer and longer and based off of life insurance estimates if you've made it to 65 remember the way life insurance estimates work the 45 year old isn't expected to live as long as the existing 65 year old is to Total age because some people at 45 die before they ever get to 65.
but according to Insurance estimates the average person who's made it 65 is gonna make it to 85. I'll think about that for a second that means half of them are going to make the longer have a make the less but what does that mean it means well the investor often thinks I should be conservative because I don't have long to live the way people used to not have long to live but the fact is if you've made it to 65 you probably not necessarily but you probably have a long time to live and it's probably going to get longer too because in our lifetimes medicine keeps improving Medical Science keeps improving and in fact probably in those 20 years from 65 to 85 it'll keep improving extending that time Horizon out even further I want you to think about this another way I remember when I was young and people just drank more cars weren't as safe if you got an accident a car you're in much more dangerous get an accident car today I mean when I started driving because when the seat belts were first coming into use much less three point harnesses that came later uh or I mean you know the the shoulder belt excuse me that went with the seat belt but in all kind of ways features of our lives have moved towards safety now the fact of the matter is uh people kill themselves unintentionally at any age the average life expectancy has been falling because young people do a lot of stupid stuff I'm just going to tell you your life expectancy is going to fall if you start doing illegal street drugs if you drink too much and if you do a lot of other personal behaviors you know that it's not my job to tell you about all that stuff what I am going to tell you is that the average person is going to live longer than they think they're going to live and they have a long time Horizon anyway and it's going to get longer and it may not for you but it will for most and therefore I you got a pretty long time rise and you may have a longer one still if you've got a spouse who's maybe a little bit younger than you and baby actually has better genes than you in terms of longevity and maybe takes better care of himself or herself than you and then that second to die becomes what you should be targeting that's longer still so what happens when you look out at these 20 25 and 30-year time Horizons once you get to those nothing beats stocks among liquid asset classes it's just impossible to find periods of time where the 20 or 30-year returns of those asset classes were worse than other liquid asset classes so what am I saying to you what I'm saying to you is if you say to somebody you're 65 and you've got 25 years ahead of you probably Mr Jones and you should have a very heavy stock orientation they say that's not conservative and I'll say yes it is it is conservative what's conservative is realizing you're likely to live longer and that stocks will do better now let me go back to a different point on this topic so this one time I did a columnist kind of on this topic and and it basically was to make the point that if you've got a spouse younger than you are with better genes going to live longer if you run his or her account like you run your own with your shorter time Horizon you won't have as big an equity position as the second to die should have and the second to die likely ends up poorer than would be the case otherwise and that's pretty cruel thing to do to that person but you really want to think about that second to die longer time Horizon don't let yourself think conservative is being safe with fixed income and other supposedly safe Investments the volatility of stocks is not a function of safety it's just what it is stocks in the long term return more than non -levered real estate more than Commodities more than bonds more than cash more than cryptocurrency on and on and on and if you've got a long time Horizon if you're 65 and about to retire and you're married and you're in good health and particularly if you're in good health relative to the healthy parents we're in at the same age you got a long run you better use stocks to take advantage of it thank you very much for listening to me I very much hope you enjoyed this video as part of my series on debunking Common Market myths to watch more videos like this click the link on the screen and make sure to subscribe to Fisher Investments YouTube channel thanks so much for listening to me
Comments 0