저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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이번 결론: 입법(인프라법·인플레이션감축법 등)은 시장에 거의 영향이 없다. 입법 발표의 시장 영향: 법안 논의 과정에서 사람들이 이미 생각하고 걱정하므로 주가는 선반영되며, 발표 효과(announcement effect)는 장기 주가 흐름 데이터에서도 확인되지 않는다고 주장. 법안 내용과 실제 결과: 법안이 무엇을 다루는지와 최종 현실 결과는 무관한 경우가 많다. 예시로 2009년 바이든 인프라 법안은 실제로 대부분 집행되지 않았다. 집행 지연: 대부분의 법안은 10년 단위로 예산이 잡히고, 의회·대통령이 바뀌면 재검토되며 실제 지출은 늦어진다. 코로나 구호금도 상당수가 아직 집행되지 않았다. 인력 채용 사례: 인플레이션감축법의 IRS 인력 8만7천 명 채용은 실제로 약 14만 명을 뽑아야 할 만큼 어렵고 오래 걸릴 것이라 주장. 투자 함의: 법안의 효과는 기대하거나 우려하는 것보다 더 느리게 나타나며, 자본시장 관점에서는 이미 선반영되어 있어 크게 걱정할 필요가 없다.
다듬은 글
so sometimes I don't like to talk about politics because people get so heated about it and and there's so much that you can read about almost anything political uh and it's almost always pro and con and so once it's always down ideological lines to parallel political party lines and uh the the reality on most all this stuff is um somebody thinks it's terrible somebody else thinks it's wonderful and you know some of that may be true in the real world in the longer term but as it relates to markets it really doesn't have much impact and and let me explain to you why first all these things whatever they are whether it was the Democrats infrastructure bill sometime back uh more recently the so-called inflation reduction act which is more appropriately called uh you know climate and health care bill uh or or debated for a long time measured weight shrunk amended changed morphed and most all that is done with people thinking about it worrying about it so that stocks pre-price it there's no announcement effect that impacts stocks in any Market way ever and you can measure that going back through a very very very long history of stock movements and tax and spending Bill changes now overall intuitively you know without even thinking about whether any given thing in some government spending bill is good or bad that the better they are the better the long-term impact the worse they are the worst the long-term impact I'm not saying anything now that sounds anything other than trivial but the fact is it's also true that often what the Bill's about doesn't have anything to do with what the ultimate long-term outcome will be in the real world or otherwise why because for example and I'm just going to go back in history a little bit you may remember but may not when in 2010 President Biden and the Democrats had an infrastructure bill That was supposed to be shovel ready infrastructure excuse me I got that wrong with 2009.
mind you almost completely there is no shovel ready infrastructure that you can spend money on everything today takes a long time and in fact that money most all of it never got spent if I remember right which maybe I don't it was a hundred billion dollar package most of which never get spent in these bills a lot of the money may not ever get spent because it takes a long time they're done over the numbers the headline numbers are done over a 10-year period so you go back and revisit the budget regularly after that with congresses that differ from this Congress with presidents that are going to certainly over those 10 years differ from this president and maybe as soon as uh in 2025 no way to know that now and in that a lot of what is planned to be spent never really gets spent uh note that much of the money that was actually allocated originally for covet relief has still never fully been spent now mind you with that you get other features everything takes time everything's slow there's been a lot of headlines in the so-called inflation reduction Act about the money that's supposed to hire IRS agents I'm gonna tell you they're going to hire IRS agents but it's important to remember that hiring isn't easy to do hiring 87 000 people ever anywhere is hard to do the reality of hiring a lot of people is it takes a long time and a lot of those hires don't work out so to hire 87 000 people and have them actually get trained stick and be with you longer term you probably have to hire on making this up because it varies a little you probably have to hire 140 000 people to get to the 87 000 taking a long time having a lot of failure this could take years and years and years so whatever it is that you hope or fear out of these bills I'm just going to tell you in the real world it's going to be less immediate it's going to take longer whether it's you hope it's good or you fear it's terrible and whether you're right or whether you're not and then the stock market's already pre-priced most of that regardless so you don't have to worry about it as it relates to Capital markets ]
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