저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
한줄결론: 글로벌 경기는 2023년 상반기보다 경기침체 위험이 줄었지만, 연착륙 여부는 불투명하며 하반기 주식 10% 조정 가능성을 경고함. 경기 전망: 6개월 전보다 심각한 경착륙 위험은 줄었으나, 유로존은 이미 얕은 경기침체에 진입했고 영국도 높은 인플레이션으로 침체 가능성이 큼. 미국 경제: 연준이 금리를 5% 이상 올렸음에도 경제는 잠재성장률 이상으로 성장 중이며 노동·재화 시장이 타이트함. 이는 연착륙에는 긍정적이나 연준이 추가 인상(기준금리 6%대 가능성)을 해야 한다는 의미라 침체 위험을 키움. 중국: 성장 둔화는 경기순환이 아닌 구조적 문제로 인구 고령화, 부채·주택 과잉, 국가자본주의 강화에 따른 민간부문 위축이 원인. 잠재성장률은 과거 10% 이상에서 3~4% 수준으로 하락했다고 평가. 인플레이션·스태그플레이션: 코로나 공급충격 완화와 상품가격 하락은 긍정적이나, 지정학·디커플링, 리쇼어링, 기후변화 등 구조적 요인으로 중기 성장 둔화와 생산비용 상승이 예상됨. AI·로봇 등 기술은 장기적으로 성장과 저인플레에 기여하겠지만 효과까지 시간이 걸림. 시장 전망: 시장이 오늘 너무 많이 올라 하반기 조정이 나올 수 있으며, 중앙은행의 추가 긴축으로 명목·실질 금리가 오르면서 채권 수익률도 하락보다 상승(금리 상승) 쪽일 가능성이 큼. 글로벌 주식 10% 조정은 충분히 있을 수 있다고 봄. 영국(BoE) 딜레마: 브렉시트로 잠재성장률이 낮아졌고, 근원 인플레를 잡으려면 침체와 고금리가 불가피하며 이는 공공·민간 부채 부담으로 금융 불안을 초래할 수 있음. 재정정책도 긴축이 필요하나 반대로 확장되어 정책 간 충돌이 있음. 노동당 집권 시 관계 개선과 관세동맹 가능성 언급, 영국의 학술연구·벤처 생태계는 강점. 일본(BOJ): イールドカーブ 컨트롤(YCC) 폐지는 불가피하며, 10년물 국채 금리 통제를 점진적으로 축소한 뒤 향후 6개월 내 5년물로 확대할 것으로 전망. 일본 인플레는 아직 완만하여 BOJ는 정책 실수를 우려해 천천히 움직일 것이라고 평가. 출연자 전망 요약: 글로벌 경제는 약하고 하반기 주식 조정과 금리 상승 압력이 있다는 입장. 종목별 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
It's always fun catching up, although you're never that positive about the world economy. Are you more positive now than you were six months ago or less? Well, I would say that compared to six months ago, where there was a serious risk of a real hard landing for the global economy, those risks are reduced right now.
Now, that's the good news. But I think that there is still an open discussion of whether the global economy is going to achieve a soft landing as opposed to a bumpy landing for a bumpy land. There will be a short and shallow recession. That sort of and shallow recession has already started in the eurozone.
The U.K. with very high inflation, is probably headed towards that recession as well. In China, there is a sharp slowdown of growth. This is not just cyclical, is more structural. The United States still, the jury's out on whether we will achieve a soft landing or whether there's going to be a short and shallow recession.
So it's a mixed bag, but that depends on what's on the U.S. Is it Fed policy or is it just the tight labor market that could suddenly collapse? Well, in the US, paradoxically, so far, in spite of the Fed hiking rates above 5%, the economy has grown recently above potential tight labor market, tight goods market.
That's good news in terms of achieving a soft landing, but is actually bad news for the Fed because it implies that the Fed is not done yet. They may have to hike once more and be twice more events or the Fed funds rate might have a six handle rather than a51. And the more that happens, the more the risk is that eventually there might be at least a short and shallow recession.
But the economic data recently have been reasonably strong, even if it's slowing. But in real, I don't really understand what's what's changed the last six months. So there could be a delayed effect of all the interest rate rises with defaults in companies. And the data from China could point to a much worse economic picture.
So why are you more positive than six months ago? Well, there has been a bit of unwinding of the negative supply shocks that occurred during COVID. Commodity prices fell. Some of the supply bottleneck have been reduced and so on. That was positive. Fiscal policy has been reasonably expansionary in the United States, where those in that part of the world keeping demand stronger while the Fed and other central banks were tightening some of the geopolitical tensions that are being somehow reduced, how are design the fact that a lot of these adjustments have happened by themselves?
Well, we knew there would be some unwinding of the Covid shocks that did inflate initially lower growth and higher inflation, our lower inflation and higher economic growth. But certainly it has been surprising that given the amount of monetary tightening, some economies have been resilient. But the most resilient economy is in the United States.
So funded out of the eurozone is going towards a shallow recession. UK, China is a structural problem. So you kind of generalize what's happening right now in the global economy. The U.S. is probably the broadest spot as of now. Is there anything in Europe that policymakers can do to avoid stagflation or at least make it shorter?
Well, the reasons why we have stagflation that are more structural are rather than being cyclical. Do we have monetary or fiscal policy? There's a process of the globalization that is decoupling the risk and geopolitical depression restriction to essentially migration. There is reshoring and French shoring of manufacturing.
There is a global climate change. Those are all structural factors that over medium term reduced growth and increased cost of production. And the structural reforms that increase actually potential growth are occurring too slowly. Technology in the future is going to be a force for stronger growth and lower inflation.
The AI and machine learning, robotic automation and quantum biotech and you name it, about the effects of that on growth and inflation is going to take time. In the short run, the stagflation forces are more important in some parts of the world. What would you make of China right now, and what are markets most misunderstanding about the world economy and actually how equities and bonds should behave?
Well, China, the reduction in growth is not technically structural. And so the we've aging of population debt and leverage housing overhang, state capitalism, a backlash against the private sector depresses the sentiment of housing and the corporate and geopolitical the pressure on the policies that are effectively Marxist-Leninist of Xi Jinping and so on.
So I think that potential growth used to be 1025 I think is at best 3 to 4%. And that's not going to change because is it emphasizing security control over opening up and reform? That's the main thing. Now, I would say on markets, in my view, if the global economy is going to weaken, if there is still a meaningful chance of at least a bumpy landing, probably.
Markets have rallied too much today, and that's maybe going to lead to a correction in the second half of the year. If the economic data are still weak and if central banks have to likely with more is a way of essentially fighting inflation. And that's going to lead to a nominal in real rates rising as well.
And that means that probably bond yields may go higher rather than lower while inflation is still high. And so the banks are still fighting inflation. But a correction or a 10% correction in equity markets, or is that too high? Well, a 10% correction is not totally unlikely. The economy starts to soften up globally.
And if you have still inflation that is above essentially target with core being still high and U.S., UK, Europe central banks hiking somehow more. I would not be surprised if within the second half of the year to get a 10% correction in global equity markets. So what would you do if you were the Bank of England governor?
Well, Bank of England is facing a dilemma. On one side, growth is lower and is lower also because of a self-inflicted gall. That was the Brexit decision by the U.K. so reduced potential growth and increased cost of production. So is the most likely case of stagflation. On one side, the economy is headed towards a sharp slowdown in potential recession on the other side.
Core inflation is still too high and therefore you face a dilemma or three in the case of the Bank of England, because you want to have lower inflation, but that's going to cause a recession and higher interest rates are going to imply eventually financial instability because private and public debts are I and that servicing rates are going to rise as interest rates go higher.
So you might have actually a perfect storm in the case of the U.K.. Is there anything that actually fiscal policy or just government policy can do to try and mitigate that? Well, the fiscal policies are also in a dilemma, because if you want to maintain growth, the expansion of fiscal policy, but now fiscal policy at cross-purposes with monetary policy, if you have too much, essentially inflation is because there was too much demand.
That implies that signaling structurally fiscal policy should be retrenching. The opposite is happening and let's make the goal of central banks of achieving price stability harder rather than easier. But so what does the UK economy look like in two or three years? How do they build the economy also to make up for maybe some of that lost output?
Well, the reality is that you have to effectively reverse the fact, if not visual, that Brexit, maybe we have a customs union in one of about. Do you see that happening? Well, you know, people talk about, you know, Brexit in name only. If Labour were to come to power, probably they're not going to reverse formally Brexit, but probably the relation with Europe and got improved.
Maybe there is a chance of eventually going to a customs union of that sort and you can still do it like everybody else. Structural reforms increase potential growth. I must say that actually in some of the technologies of the future, like I would like, the UK has actually lots of great academic research, venture capital firms, startups, and that's what actually the UK should emphasize is trying is going to be to have the kind of reform that lead to technology and innovation.
And if they do have done right, they can do it. Bank of Japan How much of a nightmare is it trying to go against everyone else? Will they just have to, you know, give up on yield curve control? Well, they will give up on your control, but they are still waiting to see whether there's increases in inflation in core is persistent or not.
I think they will gradually phase out the way to see for the ten year JGBs and then go to the five year over the next six months. So, yeah, they are still behind the curve, but inflation is still moderate in Japan. I don't worry them being behind the curve and they're worried about making a mistake or phasing it out too soon.
And then maybe if inflation is too low, then they have to reverse themselves. So I think they're going to get it mostly right.
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