저자: PhilipHopf · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 반도체 ETF 풋옵션 숏 포지션을 소개하며 그가 시기상조로 숏했다고 평가. 자사 Tech 33 포트폴리오의 브로드컴(장기 목표가 달성 후 약 70% 조정 예상, 현재 미보유, 익절·손절 상향 권고), 엔비디아(372~685 구간 이후 35~50% 조정 가능성, 익절 권고), AMD(약 48% 수익, 115~180 구간 보유 및 추가매수 시나리오) 분석. 전반적으로 중장기 조정 가능성을 강조.
다듬은 글
The man behind the Hollywood film "The Big Short," investor Michael Berry, placed a large bet last November. This bet was against the entire semiconductor market, specifically the chip market in Taiwan and the USA. He shorted the entire semiconductor ETF. Today, we'll examine what this short has yielded for him.
Michael Berry already suffered a significant setback in the middle of last year when he shorted the Nasdaq, the US technology index, which subsequently rose sharply. He was forced to close this short position with a loss of approximately 40%. He then announced his intention to short the semiconductor sector, which he considers very bearish.
We'll take a close look at how this trade has performed so far, its current status, and then we'll also examine three stocks from our Tech 33 portfolio—the major players in the semiconductor sector—and our assessment of them. Let's get started. Welcome! My name is Philip Hopf. This is another video from HKCM.
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Direct access to the special reports. Let's take a look at this now. According to a report from Investing (I even made a video about it back then), Michael Berry placed a short bet on November 15, 2023. Michael Berry, famous for big short positions, placed a bearish bet against the Semiconductor ETF.
So, a short position on the expiration of the Semiconductor ETF. Now let's move on and take a closer look at the situation. For this, we'll go to the website stockcircle.com. It's a very interesting site for anyone who wants to take a look. There you can see the exact portfolio compositions of various hedge fund managers.
For people who say, " Okay, I'm interested in how a Druckenmüller positions himself, how a Michael Berry positions himself," and so on, you can position yourself relatively similarly to how the hedge fund giants do. So, let's now look at Michael Berry's short positions. We only want to see the short positions he has.
He has significantly more long positions; he currently has a total portfolio value of 47.1 million. And now let's look at the options, so options, a derivative on shorting. The position held here was in the BlackRock Institutional Trust Company NA ISARES Semiconductor ETF, and it's not a call option (i.e., not a call option on rising prices or speculation on rising prices), but a put option.
A put option is always a short position. These are all specialized terms in the financial market: long, short. Long is betting on rising prices, short is betting on falling prices. So, if we see that he has placed a put option, he wants to see red figures, not green ones, because if there were red figures, it would mean that his put option is becoming more valuable, and therefore his option would be worth more.
He would make money if he sold it. However, we see that when he entered this position, which was in Q3 2023, the ETF has risen by 11.6% since then. He is currently down by approximately this amount, unless he has leveraged the position. We can see this from the data, but not for sure whether he is using leveraged products, which is certainly possible with options, or whether he is only directly involved in the market.
He is currently at least... 11.6% down or underwater in terms of his position, so what we want to do now is first of all make an observation, not a judgment. I want to make that clear right away; I 'm neither for nor against Michael Berry. We'll just take a look at this, and then we'll see how we ourselves are positioned here.
We don't have a semi-converting ETF, but there are three stocks from our Tech 33 portfolio. We'll just show the values now; you can pause the video and take a quick look at which stocks we analyze daily, where we identify the entry and exit points for each stock. This is also how we communicate the entire portfolio management to our subscribers.
So, there are three stocks that are very strong in the semi-converting sector: Broadcom, number 2 Nvidia (known to most people), and Advanced Microelectronics ( AMD). So, we'll take a look at these three and see how they've performed recently. We'll start with Broadcom based on our ELIET wave analysis.
It should be noted that there are two possibilities with Broadcom. The short-term chart is based on 4 hours, meaning each candlestick represents 4 hours. Basically, there are always two scenarios: a primary scenario and a secondary scenario. In the primary scenario, we assume that the price is aiming for another high, meaning that the price will approach the previous high at 1151.
This is precisely the area here, then exceed it and enter this zone. In this zone, we would be very, very cautious. Why is this? To explain briefly for laypeople, it's very simple: if you see that several time and wave levels are stacked on top of each other, then we are dealing with a very, very over-cyclical uptrend.
This is our speculation regarding Broadcom. This means we are in wave 5 of the higher- level wave 5 of the higher-level wave 5 of the higher-level wave 5. I'll show you this very simply: if the upcoming high for Broadcom is reached, we assume that this value will correct very strongly and for a longer period, significantly more than 50%.
So, according to our speculation, it will more than halve. Let's take a closer look at this. There are two possibilities: either it has already reached its previous high here, the previous high from December 15, 2023, meaning it wo n't exceed this current high, or fall below it, and then drops directly from here as soon as it falls below the previous interim high of $1003 from November 21.
This is the line we assume it will drop sharply right here. Basically, our expectation is that it will continue to rise, and then we might short this market. We'll incorporate a short target zone into the analysis for this market, which we will then communicate to subscribers. This is where we'll enter a short position and where the stop-loss should be set.
If you want to actively trade this using derivatives, you can approach this topic in the same way. Let's look at the long-term chart. Here you can already see the target zone. Yes, it's the same area up here. You can already see it, the area around $ 1240. Let's go again. On the long-term chart, which is now on a daily basis, the lower edge of the 1236 Fibonacci retracement is at 1151, and the upper edge is at 1510.
This is the golden ratio, a 68 Fibonacci retracement, and the optimal range for such a wave (5 of 5 of 5) to end is always at 14140. This is the optimal range for us, mathematically speaking, at $1372. This is when the current trend runs its course, and we enter this target zone. Then we have to assume that this years-long uptrend we've seen is coming to an end, and we're about to see a large, very large correction.
I say this deliberately because it's meant quite literally. This correction could then extend for a considerable time. We then assume that the price could subsequently correct down to the area of approximately $400, if we take $1372 as our target. This is also the previous intermediate low from October 2022.
This was a buying area we set here, and that would then result in a correction of almost 70%. Here you can already see it currently, it could easily be 70%, which is also a range we're setting here. So, anyone currently invested in Broadcom – we are currently not invested, mind you – should definitely move their stops up in this area according to our analysis, realize profits, and if the market turns here and does what we expect, they should exit the market because we then see a very, very large correction, which we will buy again after this correction has passed.
We want to re-enter, but only when the market has reached its bottom and not buy up the peak somewhere. That's our basic expectation for Broadcom. Perhaps I should also briefly show where we are and where we are not. We exited Nvidia; at the time, I believe we took 80%. We can quickly check that I'm saying this correctly: Nvidia Corporation 70%.
Sorry, not 80, but 70% – that's what we took when we sold and exited. As you can see, with Broadcom, we took 17.79%; we were stopped out at that time. So, we'll... The stop-loss order was gradually moved up for safety, and then it can happen that the price pulls back. We hedge our bets and then take profits.
That's okay; you ca n't always be perfect. Let's look at the current positions. These are all the open positions we have in the market. Here you can see one of the stocks I'll discuss in a moment. At the end, we're holding AMD Advanced Micro Devices. We're currently up almost 48% and have a total allocation of 8.76% in our portfolio.
So, AMD's share is 8.76% of our total portfolio, and we're currently up almost 30% overall with the Tech 33 package. Now let's go back to the chart and look at the next stock: Nvidia. Here's the Nvidia chart with the target zone. We set this on October 26, 2023, which also marked the low in many indices.
In the S&P 500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq, October 2023 and October 2022 were the targets. At the respective major turning points where the market moved from a bearish to a bullish upward movement, we have also set target zones for many individual stocks to increase positions for more active traders.
You can see that the market has risen by a little over 40% since the low of $392. Nvidia is leading the way here, and it could certainly rise further. We have two possibilities here: the alternative that the market has already finished or that it will rise a bit higher. I'll show this on the long-term chart shortly.
But here, too, we see it quite similarly to Michael Bury. The only difference is that Michael Bury probably doesn't use chart analysis; he's fundamentally oriented. That's why, in our opinion, he went short on the sector a bit too early. As we saw with Broadcom, we really see a major trend reversal.
Yes, we expect it to happen in the next few weeks or months, but not right now. Michael Bury made his decision back in Q3 2023. He will have different calculation methods; it's impossible to judge. In any case, he did it a bit too early in our opinion. If we look at the stocks here... Specifically, regarding Nvidia, here too, what are our long-term expectations?
Let's look at the daily chart, and here you can see it: we assume that we are now in the last third of the foreseeable future, completing the five waves of the overarching wave 1. This was wave 2 in December 2022. Then we have wave 3 with the longest extent, also the nice gapup we saw here. This is where the market really climbed until July 2023.
Then there was another relatively sideways downward movement until the aforementioned October 2023. We defined our long target zone here. Since then, the market has perfectly reached it, extending the trend reversal. Everything worked correctly, and it continues to rise. However, we are also strongly convinced that once it completes wave 1, that will be the end of the line for Nvidia.
This means that if you enter this zone—I know it's set quite broadly because we ca n't yet calculate exactly how far it will go—it will catch But at 685.28, we become very, very cautious and would advise significantly adjusting stop-loss orders and possibly even taking profits for those who have been invested in Nvidia for a while.
Why? Because we assume a longer-term ABC correction is coming, meaning the market corrects down into the second tier. We'll enter the market there as well. While it 's not nearly as severe as with Broadcom, depending on where we want to place our position, we expect the market to correct by 35 to even 50%.
Depending on how deep we enter the market and from what level we see the downward trend reversal, we can assume that we will probably see at least a 40% correction in Nvidia once these targets are reached. So, this is the area where we say, "Okay, folks, be careful." The price also has to be said quite clearly: the price reaches the very significant October level I mentioned earlier.
October 2022 was the overall market low, then the intermediate low of the correction in October 2023. It has gained 417% since October 2022. Yes, so... It's perfectly normal for a larger 40% correction to come our way, and we expect this to occur at the very end, at the level where we are still invested.
Let's now look at the chart of Advanced Microservices ( AMD). Back in October, we had a target zone for a long position there. We calculated that the price would enter this zone, reverse the trend, and then rise again. And that's exactly what it did. It was very successful. As mentioned, we are currently invested and showing a gain of almost 48%.
We now have two scenarios. We would primarily like to see the price enter this zone again, meaning that it sells off again down into this area. Then we would add further positions in AMD within this zone. We would then send this information via email to the subscribers of the Tech 33 package and clearly indicate it.
If the price does n't enter this zone, this scenario is ruled out. Once we have exceeded the previous interim high at 15105, this scenario is no longer valid. Then we have to assume that the price will go directly above 151 and into this area. If the market starts moving here, then we might do the following: calculate another target zone and place it somewhere around here, depending on which scenario unfolds.
Then we could short the market from here because even if it breaks through directly here, there would likely be a more extensive correction afterward, which we would then utilize. It would play out roughly like this, to illustrate: assuming we start directly here, the trend reversal is established, the bullish movement ends here, the market comes down, and then we would set another target zone somewhere down here to trade the market.
So, depending on how the market decides, we adapt: either it comes back in here, in which case we buy more, giving us plenty of room to go up to over $180. So, from around $115 to $ 180, this could be very profitable. Or, if the market breaks through here, we wait until it corrects down afterward and then set a new target zone.
I hope this was helpful. If so, please like and comment on the video. I wish you a wonderful trading week. Take care, thank you.
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