원문 보기
it finally happened I hardly noticed all year I've been warning you that the flood of new IPOs would eventually derail many of those turbocharged growth stocks in the Nasdaq we like so much if you want to participate in the deal you need to sell something though yeahthere's sell something else and lately money managers have been selling the software as a service place anything cloud related has been slammed I'm lame in the IPO market when this year began I was worried it would end up looking like the end of the dot-com era back in 2000 we had two markets then as that composite switch and was filled with pretenders like InfoSpace eToys and World Cup and Global Crossing and then there was the real market made up of the Coca Cola's and the mercs from 1999 to 2000 more than 300 companies came public flooding the market with endless amounts of stock both from the IPOs and from their secondary offerings there was too much new supply and only overwhelmed men then the whole dot-com edifice came crashing down even the good ones by the way if they all got eviscerated and then we had Wall Street soured on things Tech and rotated back to the cokes and the Pepsi's the high-quality copies would consist scenaries and good dividends and buybacks only a half dozen companies really survived now all we're seeing something similar the cloud socks are being clubbed though though fortunately they aren't that many of them at least not competitive dot-com period and some of the cloud names are even profitable but it doesn't matter money's flowing back to consistent companies with healthy dividends as long as they don't have too much China exposure that's what we're just seeing in the Dow once again the new supply from IPOs has overwhelmed the natural demand from buyers this happened sooner than I thought because there's a lot less demand for individual stocks than there used to be these days Emmitt Singh has become the default way most people invest almost 60% of the money in the stock market comes to you the indices and the indices aren't allowed per se to participate in IPOs cuz then I'm in the index I mean that's kind of what we don't want to have happen isn't it Wow plus many of these junior growth companies like to issue stock is salary which means there's a constant flood of additional supply like it's like weak shale underneath a skyscraper it doesn't help that many of the IPOs are unicorns and soon their lock ups will start to expire G get this ubers lock up on its insider sales ends in a few weeks we're gonna get with 22 billion dollars with the stock that's four times the current float Thank You Larry McDonald fried bear traps for putting those that worked together and whoever is hardly loaned blowing here you put it all together and this situation is just too darn similar to the dot-com unraveling we don't want this but it is it's almost like the stock market's equivalent of questions law bad money's driving out the good in this case the weakness from unprofitable new and public companies leads into the profitable but expensive cloud babes did you see the way get a peloton acting today there are five firms and told you to buy it yeah these one hot one red hot group of cloud socks is really plummeting to earth Oh in this software outlook from workday last week took everybody by surprise so what do you do if you don't own any of the cloud stocks I think you gotta let them settle if you do own the higher quality cloud plays that are being brought down by the bad ones you have my permission to pick up them into weakness but please be mindful that the whole group is under pressure you could have a potentially lot more downside I wish I could offer more reassurance but the vast supply of new stock just snuck up on us and it's causing the whole group to get hit these IPOs are a tsunami and it's just not worth trying to fight it better you get out of the way oh the only piece of good news at least we weren't annihilated by we work the damage was coordinate of the so-called professionals who like their lungs ripped out by an overly dynamic entrepreneur with a trivet story and a real bad balance sheet stick with claim [
Comments 0