저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
시장이 단기 조정 국면에 있으며 데이터센터 관련 종목 다수가 급락함. 채권시장이 금리 상승을 압박하고 있어 5~10% 조정 가능성을 언급하고, 헤지를 걸고 일부 포지션을 줄였다고 밝힘. 유가는 봉쇄 지속 시 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 엔비디아는 기업 AI 인프라 확산 수혜로 밸류에이션이 성장률 대비 합리적이라는 견해이나, 대형 IPO 자금 조달 등 수급 부담을 지적함. 마이크론은 PER 12배 수준으로 매력적이라며 조정을 기다려온 기회로 봄.
다듬은 글
on a momentary slide. Not losers, that may just be resting before the next decline. So, I go down the list of stocks in the S&P 500 that are down the most and see if there's anything that kind of strikes my fancy. Incredibly, today's many many of today's markets worst performers were indeed linked to the data center.
Ciena Electronics, a material company used by chip makers, is down 5%. We own this one for the charitable trust. It's had a parabolic move even after this pullback. I think it's too expensive for the moment. Comfort Systems is a heating, ventilation, air conditioning company with plenty of data center exposure, but it's a $1,854 stock.
It's nearly doubled year to date. I'm not messing with that one. Western Digital's down nearly 5%. It's a memory stock that trades at 46 times earnings. That seems too rich to me. The fairly similar Micron sells for less than 12 times earnings, and it seems compelling down 6% today. I've been waiting for Micron to come down.
This may be the opportunity. Next, there's Corning, another charitable trust company with a para- another parabolic move. It's got to come in more than just down 7%. The beatdown's not enough to entice me to buy, or at least buy more of it. SanDisk, that stock's up more than 3,000% over the past 12 months.
Even up here, it only trades at just 20 times this year's numbers, but that may be too expensive versus Micron. Got to let it come down more than today's 5% decline. Seagate, again, too pricey, nearly 50 times next year's earnings estimates. These are commodity companies. Vertiv had an amazing quarter, the best backlog of any of the data center stocks, but at 53 times earnings, I got to say no thanks.
Bottom of this was Gen-Probe, which got blasted by a poor result on a metastatic melanoma cancer trial. I, along with many others, thought that this trial would succeed. You can't buy a drug stock that falls that much on the first day of the decline. Most analysts seem to have keyed on this drug to recommend that stock.
It's damaged. There could be some more downgrades. So, what do you do as someone who's always looking for The market's not going to look like it does. It's not going to be hanging around the hoop uh of record highs if you get a hike in rates. Right. Period. The bond market's telling you that or the bond market is hiking itself.
So, if the Fed comes in, it's just the Fed rubber stamping what the market's already telling you. And if you take a look, the correlation There's always some correlation some degree of correlation between rates and equities, right? An inverse correlation. But if you take a look at the last 3 months and the last month, you'd see over the last month that correlation is one-to-one.
And that's troubling part. So, I think we're at a lull in oil prices right now, meaning that I think they go higher as long as we uh keep with the blockade. So, when you look at the situation that's there, there are two options that that uh Trump has. One, and he's threatened this. I don't know that he'll actually do it, which is that renew hostilities.
That won't be good for oil prices. The other is maintain the blockade. That won't be good for oil prices. And of course, third option is that uh that he finds a way to hit the off-ramp with a dialogue that his base will believe, and that's always an option. But overall, not that his base It's not that the Forget the base.
It's the markets at this point. Well, I I I I I Well, as you as you as you get closer to the midterms, you got to believe that that the president's going to do and say whatever he thinks he has to do and say Right. to keep the market from having any kind of dramatic move lower. I mean, we've How many times we need to see the movie to understand what the plot is?
Right. Except Except here's the difference. I think at this point, the bond vigilantes, which include focused on the deficit Deficit's going to be 1.9 trillion this year versus 1.7 trillion, which is already a record. So, all that's conspiring to drive up rates. So, I don't think there's an off rates.
So, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5 to 10% correction. As you recall from show on Wednesday, I put on some hedges. I've been lightening up some positions. I think that the the with Paul Tudor Jones starting a dialogue that we're a year or two away from this ending actually brings forward the ending.
Right? Cuz nobody wants to be the last one out. So, I think that's what we're seeing the AI trade now. So, so I have concerns. Now, it could all turn on a dime, of course, and that's why you can't be short. So, hedging's different than being short. Nobody likes to be in the midst of what a a 5% correction feels like in the moment.
But, this is one of those markets where you have a a 5% pullback, everybody's like, "Oh, that kind of feels kind of nasty." And then at the end of the 5% everybody's like, "Oh, whew. Was waiting for something like that because the market was ripe for it. You were getting into unhealthy places where everything was like up into the right."
add one thing though? 5 to 10% & is already in one of the most discussed stock on the Wall Street, but the conversation is beginning to evolve. For years, investors view Nvidia as a primary way to profit from AI revolution. Now, however, we are seeing something much bigger unfold. The AI infrastructure boom is exploding across the entire technology ecosystem.
Companies like Dell, Cisco, HPE, Lenovo, and many others are seeing growing demand as businesses to build their own AI capabilities. This doesn't mean Nvidia is losing. In fact, it means the opposite. Nvidia's success is now spreading throughout an entire network of partners, suppliers, and infrastructure providers.
One challenge for Nvidia investors is simply mathematics. Since the launch of ChatGPT, Nvidia has delivered the one of the greatest stock market run in the history. When a company grows this large and become one of the most widely owned stock in the world, then finding the next wave of buyers become increasingly difficult.
At the same time, investors are preparing for potential mega IPOs from the companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Portfolio managers don't have unlimited capitals. If they want to exposure to these new opportunities, they may need to sell a portion of the existing holding to fund those purchases.
Yet despite those concerns, the Nvidia valuation remains surprisingly reasonable compared to its growth rate. The company continue to generate extraordinary margins while growing earning at a pace most companies can only dream about. Many What many investors fail to recognize is that AI demand is no longer being driven exclusively by hyperscalers such as Amazon, Microsoft, and the Google.
A major shift is taking place. Enterprises are increasingly building their own AI infrastructure. At Dell Technologies World, the executive revealed that the thousands of organization have already adopted the private AI systems. Business are discovering that not every AI workload need to run inside a public cloud environment.
In many cases, owning and operating AI infrastructure initially provide strategic advantage, better control, and potentially lower term long-term cost. This turn create a massive opportunity not only for Dell, but also for Nvidia whose hardware power much of this infrastructure. In fact, Nvidia recently changed how it report part of its business.
The company now separates hyperscalers customers from enterprises and other customers, signaling the management that confidence in enterprises AI adoption will become major growth driver in the years ahead. Meanwhile, all the eyes are turning toward the Taiwan and Nvidia upcoming GTC Taipei event. Whenever Jensen Huang take the stage, investors pay attention.
Historically, Jensen representation have provided the road map of where the entire AI industry is heading next. This year's speculation is particularly intense after Nvidia hinted a mysterious new product planned alongside with Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin. Adding even more excitement, Nvidia, Microsoft, Windows, Arms, and Asus all recently posted coordinated message referencing a new era of PC.
Many analysts believe this could be signal that Nvidia's long-rumored entry into the Windows on Arm PC market through the N1 or N1X processors. If this is true, then this will be represent another major expansion of Nvidia ecosystem beyond the traditional data centers hardware. At the same time, the broader AI economy is continuing accelerating at remarkable pace.
Anthropic recently reported explosive growth in annualized revenue, climbing from roughly $9 billion to the end of last year to more than $47 billion within the month. That growth is not happening by accident. It's been driven by the rapid adoption of AI generating AI systems. These AI agents are performing increasingly complex tasks, interacting with software, tools, databases, and enterprises systems at a scale.
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