저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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금리 상승(10년물 4.6% 돌파, 연준 인상 가능성 확대)이 시장의 최대 리스크이며 모멘텀 팩터가 가장 취약하다고 진단. 반면 Joe 등은 성장 스토리가 견고해 조정은 일시적일 수 있다고 봄. 엔비디아는 AI 생태계 중심 기업으로 재평가되며 신제품 예고가 기대 요인으로 제시됨. 하드웨어 강세·소프트웨어 약세의 순환매가 반복되나 지속성은 부족하다는 평가.
다듬은 글
Mhm. Waiting for the bombing to begin? Waiting for oil to stop going up? Waiting for the war to end? Waiting for inflation to cool down? Waiting for interest rates to stop rising? Waiting for Kevin Warsh to take the reins of the Fed? Waiting for SpaceX and Anthropic and OpenAI to come public? That's too much waiting.
But do we have a choice? In the interim, you know what we do? We trade. That's right. Trading is filled with vicious rotational behavior. Masked by seemingly sedate averages the Dow advancing 160 points today, S&P dipping .07% and the Nasdaq sinking .51%. Sometimes we buy hardware stocks and the goods that go into or help build data centers, like semiconductors, semiconductor equipment.
While we sell all kinds of software stocks. Sometimes we sell hardware stocks and buy those same software stocks that we throw away. We do more of the former than the latter, so hardware's generally char- charging higher while software generally dives lower. But when we get a rotation and the losing software stocks power higher like they did today, they do so with a level of ferocity that makes you feel like the declines got to be over.
Of course, it feels that way every single time. Yet, the rotations never seem to last. Of course, in any given day, there are tons of other side shows. Healthcare, restaurants, and foods tend to trade up together as we saw today. Contractors, machinery, and builders trade down as we saw today, too. Then there's the 52-week low stocks, the pummeled that tend to be rally with the software contingent, damage stocks that momentarily levitate.
And then there's everything else. Why is it like this? How can there be such whippy behavior? I'm so sick. Because, people, there is no conviction whatsoever. These stocks keep Here we do have the major averages under a little bit of pressure today. Not all that much. S&P is down about a little more than 1/3 of 1%.
Uh Dow gives up uh 50,000 uh once again. Obviously, we're watching rates. That's the biggest deal. Oil actually is lower today. The 10-year hitting a high of 4.63. It's the highest since February of '25. So, you're looking at more than a year since we've been there. But, the commentary feels like it's changed.
I mean, at least in some respects around what rates are doing. Traders now see the Fed uh uh moving as a a hike. December hike has a 51% probability, January 60, March uh 71%. Your Deni's talking about a July hike. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley, if bond volume rises with rising rates on the back end, we would expect a first meaningful correction in equity prices uh since the market's bottomed in March.
Joe, you get the first shot at this. Are are rising rates now the biggest risk to an otherwise really good story? So, I think rising rates have you in the ready position to take action on how much you have played offense so far in Q2. If you think about the competition in the headlines in Q2, it was dominated by AI on a daily basis.
And I think we we kind of reached this moment where it was as intense as it ultimately probably could be with Cerebras's IB IPO last week. Now, you have competition, Scott. You have competition because, as you mentioned, a 10-year Treasury is at 4.60. And for the Trump administration, this is their real first significant economic challenge internally within the market.
Even more than crude oil itself. If you pull back the lens and think about when President Trump was inaugurated on January 21st of 2025, 2 days later a 10-year traded 4.66. The benefit of 10-year yields really acting in a very benign capacity. So, this is a a challenge to the headlines. This is a challenge to the Trump administration.
And from a strategic uh standpoint, first and foremost, it's a challenge to the momentum factor. And the momentum factor is the driving force right now in the market. I think that's most at risk. I mean, Santa, if if if this is the pullback that you're getting on a day where rates, you know, continue to have that wave higher, I think many people would take that uh because they would believe that the growth trajectory and the AI story are resilient enough to overcome that.
UBS talking about that today. Yeah, we could get some consolidation. It wouldn't be a surprise after we've been up for 7 weeks in a row. And they don't expect higher yields to derail the positive outlook because growth has remained resilient. There's so much optimism around the the AI story that, you know, if the mar- market was uber concerned with a move higher in rates, probably wouldn't look like it it does today.
And how Joe's point is fair, growth [clears throat] in tech is getting hit a little bit today because as rates go up, obviously, there's those are less favorable positions to be in. This hasn't Yeah. Yeah, this hasn't necessarily been all that unruly, either. I think we've had periods where the rate volatility has been significantly more amplified over the course of the last couple of years.
And so, if you look at what the bond markets are pricing in, they're really pricing in, in our view, on the long end, this growth scenario. And I think there's a confluence of growth and inflation. And our view is actually on the short end of the curve, you know, we're probably we believe that it's a still a little bit of over reach on on the rate story.
I think you're talking about derailing and it and if this is just a growth story and we expected this concentration, this narrowness in the market to persist, but yet you have a a Nvidia continue to be the one of the most talked about the stocks on the market. Despite some recent weakness in the share price, the bigger picture remain incredibly interesting.
Over the last few sessions, investors have been debating values and future growth and whether Nvidia momentum can continue. Some analysts believe the stock could trade at significantly lower multiples during the certain part of the cycle. While others argue that Nvidia has evolved far beyond a traditional semiconductor company.
The reason for that debate is simple. Nvidia today is no longer just a GPU manufacturer. The company now sits at the center of entire AI ecosystem. Its product spans GPU, CPU, networking solutions, software platform, and increasingly compute AI infrastructure. That's a very different business compared to many traditional semiconductor companies.
At the same time, another topic attracting attention is Jensen Huang growing influence globally. Recently, there was a criticism after the report surfaced that regarding his involvement with the university advisory board in Beijing. However, many prominent American technology leaders are already associated with same organization, including the executives from some of the largest technology companies in the world.
Because of that, many investors view the controversy as largely overblown and sometimes and something that won't really change Nvidia business outlook. Meanwhile, perhaps the most important important interesting development is Jensen Huang recent hint about a future product that Nvidia has not fully revealed.
When Jensen Huang start teasing new technology, investors pay attention. Why? Because Nvidia product road map has reportedly surprised the market. We already know about the Grace Blackwell. We already know about the Vera Rubin and but now Jensen is suggesting there could be another major product announcement waiting in the wings.
That's a natural to spark the speculation throughout the industry. Could it be the new AI platform? A new infrastructure offering? A cloud-related services? Right now, nobody knows. But the investors are early waiting for more details because Nvidia next major innovation could be unlock entirely a new revenue stream.
Another important piece of puzzle involves Nvidia partners. Dell Technologies remain the one of the Nvidia closest ecosystem partner, and many investors are watching Dell carefully for clues about the future AI demand. Dell's AI-related business continue to expand rapidly, demonstrating that enterprises customers remain eager to invest in AI infrastructure.
This is important because it suggests that AI spending is not slowing down. In fact, many sign index the opposite. According to the technology sector, investors are increasingly focused on what some are calling parabolic stock. These are the stock that experienced extraordinary moves in related to short period of time.
The challenge determining which companies still have the room to grow and which one is already advanced too far too quickly. Micron is the one of the example frequently discussed by the investors. While some view Micron as inexpensive based on the forward earning estimates, other point out memory business have historically been cyclically and highly commoditized.
Nvidia, on the other hand, operate in very different category. Its competitive advantage extend the beyond hardware. The company's software ecosystem, AI platforms, networking technology, and platform approach create a much stronger mode than many traditional semiconductor business enjoy.
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