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viewers family sham for the very happy Diwali and a prosperous 2073 s sir uh me whatever variables are there government is in full command they're very deterministic uh oil price is soft at about $50 interest rates are falling inflation is under control you had a record Monsoon interest rates have been cut liquidity is in abundance uh Global interest rates are very low so uh invest interest is very high we are the fastest growing economy in the world we are India is the growth Frontier of the world economy so I mean it is very good time to invest now I'm not talking about trading uh let's be very clear I'm talking about 3 to 5 years so it doesn't matter what Market does what matters is what you have you know what kind of stocks you have and uh what's happening in the companies in your portfolio so and the real fun will be to make money when the markets are not good see in good markets everybody make money but how do you make money in bad Market that's the real thing you mentioned longterm youle segment you know there's a stock like Marti which has constantly outperformed it space poer they are struggling with the international triggers so I'm I'm very bullish on the entire Automotive pack you have to pick a stocks where uh things are yesterday you must have seen hero Honda hero motorops result where the first time they declared th000 CR plus kind of profit every analyst has been beaten on the margin expansion they have shown so I think uh that segment is very very uh interesting uh number one player is always 40 to 45% car motorcycle which is Nish cruiser bikes they're almost 100% 80 90% of the market so uh we have very interesting place penetration is very low aspirations are running very high some of the products are in uh 3 months to 5 months kind of a queue which is unheard of anywhere in the world so I think we we are looking at next 5 7even years uh very strong possibility in the of making money in uh Automotive segment as far as the it is concerned it's a much more Global phenomenon in the sense that uh there's there's a lot of innovation happening in that field so the old Legacy business which was there uh that is seeing some challenges in terms of volume growth in terms of pricing uh automation is coming in robotics are coming in then you have the other segment which is growing very rapidly that is a digitization platform platform creation or uh the so-called uh uh new uh segment of the uh business but that segment is very small compared to Old so combination of these two is giving us growth but it's very slow so I think we might be in for uh 3 4 years of uh slow slow growth and then probably the newer segment will become bigger and their 40 50% growth would assert on the uh growth possibility for the tax sector but valuations are also you know kind of quite bitten down so it may be one of the content buys right now indication finance ministry say it is almost certain GST and single rate G yeah some categories there were total tax between State and Central was about anywhere between 25 to 35% so one was seeing a distinct benefit for those companies the tax level permanently low and that would definitely auger well for the demand growth as we go for apart from the ease of doing business it was also going to have a impact on the uh what do you call uh cost of the product now with this four rates I think I'm quite show the companies this Automotive companies and all all Automotive Products and all they will all be clubbed into that particular category so let's see in what form finally come see this is a huge tax reform it's a digital tax somebody says that this kind of thing is not there anywhere in the world I mean uh matching the inves input invise and output invise and it's possible only digitally so now India is first time showing the digital press in implementation of GST once it is implemented I think uh I mean that consultant is saying that I think everywhere in the world it must be done like that once India is successful so I think it's a huge effort and uh everybody must come together to appreciate whatever they do we will see the who is the beneficiary and how things are going to be impacted uh little later because once it is implemented what is going to happen is lot of small guys who are you know who do cash business or who are out of the tax net all together irrespective of the raid they will come back into the rate once they come into indirect taxes they'll also come in the net of direct taxes so the total impact after a year or so will be significant you know so uh I think I don't have any doubts that tax compliance and tax collection will be much much higher than whatever government is estimating right now but uh I mean till the implementation has happened there will be hiccups there will be challenges uh some people will feel bad something will so I think uh let's watch in what shape it gets implemented let's not hurry up to count the gains because if it is 26% and my total tax is 22 right now it might get hurt you know so we have to we have to watch the this SP very carefully diver large or small stocks simar private sector BS sector BS sector Banks P BS bance sheet goes back to PSU Banks PSU Banks because of recovering economy and lower interest rate external environment so I think there is a natural recovery which is bound to happen in all these Banks second is what changes government is going to bring because uh this is a very large space jetly s is continuously busy trying trying to figure out what to do recap how do we do the more what do you call uh empowerment of the entire management of psus all kinds of laws have been passed uh we have seen the large asset sale from Sr and uh lot of companies which are stressed JP and all so even that is going to contribute to the recovery of the book so lot of good things are happening for PSU Banks uh and uh what you're saying is right it could be the most uh most headed but most attractive set class on 12 20 months on a for the trading kind of a situation maybe not so much for the investing but for trading that could be a possibility ra interesting place right now it's looking really confused in the sense that I don't have any stake in any of the companies so uh I mean we expecting the trouble so it has now it is unfolding uh no I mean see this a larg space There Will Be Few winners finally I mean it's not that uh nobody will make money finally somebody will make money but first what is going to happen is uh you know voice tar which is about 70 80% of the total current whatever uh Telecom Revenue that go is saying that will not charge at all for the whole life now this is a huge statement by a very big company Shape Up will it converge toward GE or will it converge towards bharti and Vodafone or will it be a you know it will stabilize somewhere so I think uh and then how the regulation goes about interconnect charges and uh all those kind of things so regulation players balance sheet you know somebody who is the newest has the highest cash flow but in comparon so let the dust settle sir if look at it I mean it is very tough to figure out what is going to happen in 12 months we know one thing businesses will make money for sure some some companies will make more money than uh uh some some of their competition we have to figure out in our portfolio right kind of companies are there I'm reasonably sure on a 3 to 5 year basis uh well chosen portfolio see the profits are in niches profits are in not generalized right now for some reason because of uh Global slowdown or local slowdown uh investment cycle collapse in the Commodities I mean see all these things are playing out right now so Jo companies those the companies which are not impacted by all this this financial services okay so these are the genuine profits now I mean but I mean in our businesses or the way we have strategized it has worked well so we have to figure out 10 15 companies whose strategy is Right whose understanding is right who are focused onto doing businesses it doesn't matter whether they're popular or not you know whether they're very large or not so we have to avoid troubles in our portfolio and create a portfolio and in 15 companies even five companies disappoint you still 10 companies will pull you through
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