저자: CouchInvestor · 외국인
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쿠팡(CPNG)은 2024년 3분기 실적에서 매출·EPS 컨센서스를 상회했으나 주가는 8% 하락. 매출 27%↑, 총이익 45%↑, 활성고객 11%↑ 등 성장 지표 양호. 파페치 손실 축소로 수익성 개선 기대, 2025~2026년 EPS 급증 전망(포워드 PE 75배는 성장으로 낮아질 것). 빌 게이츠·드러켄밀러 보유 언급. 대형 헤지펀드 관심이 있다고 설명하며 하락 시 추가 매수 기회로 봄.
다듬은 글
Bill Gates has close to $200 million worth of this stock and Stanley drer Miller has this as his number two position in his portfolio so what's so special about it what's so special about cang well luckily enough coupang just reported their latest quarterly results so we can go and discuss them now the stock is down 8% despite a double beat as you can see over the last three years the stock is still negative it's still down 11.69% of course now with the after hours action it's going to be down a little bit more year to date the stock is up above 60% and year-over-year the stock is up 60% it has a market cap closer now to $45 billion and has a fordp of 75.4 times now this year as you can see right here EPS expected to be down 43.5% year-over-year that's mainly because of farfetch but then in fiscal 2025 EPS expected to accelerate I mean completely explodes up 2858 per followed by another 5572 per growth in fiscal 2026 so yeah forward p is high but as you can see EPS expected to grow quite quickly so that forward PE that PE should come down if we look at the current average analyst price Target it it'ss just 6% higher than the price we're at today looking looking at some other metrics other than forp we've got here eveve to Abida of 30.4 times price to Sals in next 12 months only 1.4 compared to a three-year mean here of 1.6 and then price to free cash flow 32.2 times in the last 12 months to be honest it's a very very powerful company especially in their home market so that's where the focus is going of course they're trying to expand in Taiwan as well yeah I know tricky tricky Island to be operating in especially in the near-term future but in their home Market South Korea they are extremely popular extremely loved so that's where the focus is at and to be honest they're executing quite well the stock might not reflect that right now I mean it still is up 60% year over-year but as you will see this company is growing is becoming more and more powerful has a market cap close to 50 billion but I think it could become much much bigger in the future let's disc because the results if you enjoy the type of videos leave it a thumbs up subscribe if you're not we really appreciate that for in comment you and before we jump into the results just to show this is the stock price so down significantly yet revenue and gross profit have continued to go up now if we look at the Stanley Dr commun portfolio the UK family 13f we can see that Pang here is at the number two position it's 7.88% of the portfolio of course in the coming weeks the new 13 filing should come out so maybe he bought more maybe he sold a little bit more we're going to see but as of now this is the last number that we've got and it's his number two position looking at the results Brad here stock market nerd with a great overview so they beat Revenue estimate by 1.8% beat Abid estimate by 29.9% missed 29.1% Gap gross profit margin estimated by 30 basis points but they did beat Gap EPS was 1 cent de Beed by 3 cents now management said the following this quarter we continue the strong momentum we've seen throughout this year delivering robust growth in revenues and margins that's the CFO saying our newer offerings and categories like fulfillment and Logistics by cang FLC and r luux a new luxury offering basically farf are examples of the massive growth opportunities from selections expansion on Rocket delivery we have achieved an important milestone in developing offerings this quarter reaching near break even profitability in farfetch earlier than planned we remain focus on our Relentless pursuit of customer wow and operational excellence so for the product Commerce they have two segments of product Commerce net revenue D increase 16% year of year or 20% on a constant currency basis as for the develop in offerings revenue is up 347 but of course that side is still unprofitable here segment adjusted eida is actually improving 21% year-over-year so loss here still $127 million now this is basically the main Revenue overview so up 27% over year or 20% excluding farfetch or up 30% year of year on an fx neutral basis 25% excluding farfetch looking at all the rest here so we've got net revenue per product Commerce active customers that's up 4% year-over-year gross profit is up 45% year-over-year net income is down 30% the impact of farfetch adjusted eida is up 44% year-over-year earnings per share down 20% net cash provided by operating activities down 54% year over year and free cash flow is actually negative $42 million that down 108% year-over-year but as the farfetch segment does get better and better and more more profitable I expect them to be free cash flow positive again and here they basically show us the farfetch impact so net loss of $44 million diluted earnings per share loss of 2 cents adjusted eida a loss of $2 million developing offerings net revenue $439 million segment adjusted Abida a loss of $2 million as as for the product Commerce active customers that has increased 11% year-over-year to now 22.5 million now looking at the growth rates of course we've seen what Revenue growth what what the expectations are from Management in the coming fiscal years but what about free cash flow so free cash flow for 2024 is expected to be $1.85 billion it's expected to grow to $1.78 billion in fiscal 2025 and then 2.6 $6 billion in fiscal year 2026 zooming out a little bit we can see that from Q4 2020 gross profit is up 26844 per.
operating margins have basically peaked here in Q3 Q2 2023 1.9 1.8% then it dropped down a little bit of course the negative impact of one the Fulfillment Network plus also farfetch as well we can also see that net income was basically very very negative before we are turning positive and I expect that to stay for a long long time as for gross profit margin that was 16.6% back in Q4 2020 and we're now closer to 27% so overall these things are going in the right direction by the way this goes all the way to Q2 not Q3 just yet but we just went over the Q3 number so overall by the way the small Miss I mean we've seen here the major number this small Miss is on net sales not on Revenue just on net sales purely that was $ 6.14 billion Market was expecting $6.24 billion but all the rest as you've seen they are doing quite well looking at the charts really quick we can see that on the weekly we're just overbought by a little bit now with the dip we're not going to be overbought anymore and we are sitting just above the 50-day moving average so yeah I mean this is what you want right as a long-term shareholder a good report stock is down I mean that's that's usually the best the best mix that you want to get good report stock is down so you can buy more shares of this company of course this is if you like it and if it's in your portfolio so yeah overall that's about it I can see the value there of course you're going to say and I'm saying this over and over again just by Amazon just by Mercato lib for example but I can understand why someone would be interested in coupang and why someone was interested in couping at those prices here below so overall that's all I've got for you right now if you enjoy this type of videos leave it a thumbs up subscribe if you k comments you
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