저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라가 미국·유럽에서 모델Y 가격을 인상(미국 $1,000, 유럽 €2,000)해 EV 가격 전쟁에 변화 신호로 봄. 업계 가격 인상이 이어지면 경쟁 완화 및 마진 개선 가능성 언급. 다만 테슬라가 과거에도 일시 인상 후 인하한 전례가 있어 지속성은 불확실. 반면 매출총이익률은 약 30%에서 17.63%로 하락, 2024·2025년 EPS 추정치는 60일 새 각각 약 25%, 20% 하향. 선행 PER은 120배에서 40배로 하락.
다듬은 글
Tesla stock investors finally got some good news as the company said it was Raising prices instead of slashing prices the company's going to increase prices in the US and Europe on one of its Flagship models and that has significant implications if it sticks so in this video I'm going to review those latest developments and what it could mean for Tesla stock investors and for the industry overall I mentioned already that this was great news and the company's stock price jumped following these announcements it was up roughly six or 7% on the day following these announcements Tesla stock were trading at $167 per share after falling significantly in 2024 they're now up to $174 per share following these announcements so what were the announcements well Tesla said it will raise the price of all model y Vehicles the most popular selling vehicle in the world in the United States per the company's website model y cars will increase $1,000 on April 1st 2024 and all trims will qualify for a 7500 federal tax credit in the United States furthermore Tesla stated that it will increase prices in Europe roughly €2,000 EUR on the same model y so huge huge moves here increasing the price now a $1,000 and 2,000 EUR price increase is not all that significant on the surface but it's what it signals that's more important now unless you've been sleeping under a rock for the last year and a half you'll know that the EV industry is in a major price War prices have been getting slashed at EV providers worldwide Tesla's been cutting prices I've lost count how many times Tesla cut prices in the last year and a half across the board on all its models rivan recently joined the price War lucid's been cutting prices Fisker cut prices Fisker might go out of business and other EV makers notably in China have been slashing prices as well Ford and GM cut prices on their EV models and it's just an price War everywhere and that has negative implications for industry profitability if they're cutting prices and everyone is cutting prices then that's profit margins decreasing for everyone the goal the aim is if you cut prices and your competitors keep prices the same then you have an advantage because you're now at a lower price compared to your competitors right but if you cut prices and your competitor Cuts prices and you're now at the same same comparative position where you started then you're not really gaining any market share you're making it more favorable for consumers to purchase and depending on if you get more buyers or not will determine if your profit margin Falls or Rises because if you lower your prices and it causes consumers to purchase much more of your product then you'll benefit because the lower price will be offset by an increase in units sold but that hasn't been what's been happening with Tesla and other EV makers lower prices are just leading to lower profit margin because there aren't that many more buyers of EVS demand is tepid and even with these price Cuts consumers are saying me you know it's still too expensive compared to Legacy automobiles compared to the inconvenience of owning an electric vehicle compared to owning a legacy automobile right and so it hasn't spurred increasing purchases and you've seen Tesla's gross profit margin collaps from up towards 30% down to 17.63 % in the latest quarterly update and I wouldn't be surprised if this continues moving downward given the lack of growth and the lower average selling price compared to where it was previously so this price increase has major implications if it sticks if it sticks and Tesla doesn't just have this a temporary oneoff increase and it's more of a sustained higher price even if it doesn't continue increasing price if it just raises the price and just keeps it there and stops cutting price and it makes it known to the industry that it's not going to cut price anymore and see if industry participants follow it upward just as industry participants followed it downward right when Tesla cut its price competitors didn't want to lose market share so they cut their price now that Tesla increased its price if competitors feel confident that Tesla's not going to cut anymore they might follow suit and raise their prices as well and so now everybody's pric is higher and so when consumers go out to purchase they're looking around and it's the same thing Tesla's this price the competitor is this price and the relative position didn't change but the overall price is higher leading to better margins for the industry and worse prices for consumers but it might be a little too early to tell if that's the case Cas here because Tesla has made these little oneoff price increases before and then proceeded to slash prices more than it increased them this could be due to some supply chain problems it's having remember the company had a fire in its one of its manufacturing facilities that's going to decrease production so it could be in response to that we don't know yet it could also be a response to lower production overall we've been seeing some rational behavior in EV companies which has been surprising finally right EV companies have been demonstrating some rational Behavior they've been cutting Supply they've been restricting new Supply New models they've been pausing or cancelling uh new manufacturing right like we saw from rivan it was working on a second manufacturing facility and a few weeks ago it said why why are we increasing manufacturing capacity when we're still only producing a fraction of our current capacity no need for more production right in fact what the industry needs is significantly lower production it needs to lower production because consumer demand is growing much more slowly than Supply is growing so overall I think this is a great move for Tesla and you can see over the last uh 90 days or so let's say 60 days Tesla's prospects have worsened it's earnings per share estimate for 20 24 was $3.74 60 days ago and then 30 days ago it fell to $38 7 days ago it fell to $35 and the current estimate is now $2.75 so just in the last month I'm in the last two months its earnings per share forecast for 2024 has decreased by $1 per per share and similarly for 2025 in the last 60 days it's fallen from $4 90 to four $419 to $416 and finally all the way down to $3.74 so its earnings per share for the next two years have fallen by $1 for 2024 and a116 for 2025 roughly 25% and 20% decrease in the earnings per share forecast for the next two years and this is for a company that's already trading at a premium valuation compared to other automakers because Tesla is seen as a more Innovative company it has a more of a tech stock valuation than a car company valuation but if it's not going to be growing and it's not going to be increasing earnings per share and those forecasts are coming down then the valuation premium starts to come down which is what you've been seeing lately with Tesla stock used to trade at a forward price to earnings of 120 and that enthusiasm has decreased now it's trading at a forward price the earnings of 40 a much more reasonable valuation nevertheless the news that came out today is great news for Tesla stock investors the next move is to hope that the industry participants follow suit and they increase prices as well and they announce more Supply cuts and they announce less advertising and so the competitive pressure in the industry starts to ease a bit and thereby bringing the industry in better balance the problem for Tesla hasn't been been Tesla itself it's been more of an industry problem the EV industry has been a terrible one to be in for the last 2 years and so it's not that you know Tesla's the best I I would say arguably the best-in-class EV company or one of the best in-class EV companies the problem is that it's still an EV company and that industry is in a terrible position so this move will bring it into a better position if it's sustained and it's not followed by price Cuts in like a month or in 3 weeks or something like that and then if competitors follow suit and they increase prices then boy is that great news because now you've got easing competitive pressure which is great news for investors in all of these EV companies worldwide so great news to be sur
Comments 0