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So probably there was a little bit of too much shortterm optimism. There wasn't nearly enough long-term optimism as far as I'm concerned. But in the short run when gold was above 4,000 and almost hit 4,400 uh everybody was talking about it on you know financial television uh and I think for the first time in a while people started to get interest institutions started to get interest individuals who had ignored gold uh for years if not decades uh finally uh you know maybe got into the market and now with an abrupt decline line.
Not only have some of those short-term people been spooked out of the market, but I think they've left the market. And in fact, I've listened to a lot of coverage. In fact, I was watching on CNBC. Uh there was a lot of bullishness on this show, Fast Money for Gold, uh leading up to that big run up to near 4,400.
And I watched the show the other day and everybody agreed gold was going a lot lower. At a minimum, they think gold is going to 3600. Gold's recent ascent toward $4,400 per ounce resulted in extensive media coverage and the attraction of new participants, including institutions and longtime marginalized individuals.
However, the ascent was followed by a rapid reversal of sentiment, which transitioned from exuberance to dread. Gold is currently trading at approximately $4,000, a decrease of approximately 8 to 9% from its peak. Nevertheless, it remains elevated in comparison to historical norms. The decline in silver has been more substantial with prices plummeting from highs exceeding $54 to the high 40s.
These retreats are not anomalies. Rather, they are crucial purifying phases in robust trends. They eliminate purchasers who arrived after the deadline, thereby creating an opportunity for those who are dedicated to accumulate. For the first time in my career, there are a lot of other people who were bullish on gold.
And you may have thought, was that a cause for concern? Was that a contrarian indicator? Was that a a sell signal? because now you know mainstream investors are buying and I think so because this is just the beginning of uh mainstream investors entrance into the gold market. It's not the middle and it's certainly not the end but I think a lot of people did have to get burned uh who came in because bull markets never like to rise with a lot of company.
They like to shake out the the you know the extra baggage, the weak players, the leverage players. So probably there was a little bit of too much shortterm optimism. There wasn't nearly enough long-term optimism as far as I'm concerned. But in the short run when gold was above 4,000 and almost hit 4,400 uh everybody was talking about it on you know financial television.
uh and I think for the first time in a while people started to get interest. Some institutions started to get interest. Individuals who had ignored gold uh for years if not decades uh finally uh you know maybe got into the market and now with an abrupt decline not only have some of those short-term people been spooked out of the market but I think they've left the market.
And in fact I've listened to a lot of coverage. In fact, I was watching on CNBC, uh there was a lot of bullishness on this show, Fast Money for gold, uh leading up to that big run up to near 4,400. And I watched the show the other day and everybody agreed gold was going a lot lower. At a minimum, they think gold is going to 3600, uh which is 10% below where it is now because gold still closed the week above 4,000.
I mean, barely and maybe by a couple of bucks, but that doesn't look like a market that's about to implode to me. They're scared because we had a sharp drop, but look at where we dropped from. We were almost at 4,400. We've had this big correction. Gold is now 8.7% below its record high from a week ago or so.
We've had this 8.7% correction, yet we're still at 4,000. Most people would have expected the correction to start below 4,000. Instead, we corrected to 4,000. And I still think 4,000 is the support. Even though we've traded below it, and I said that if 4,000 is support, that doesn't mean you can't trade 3,900.
You could get under support. You just can't get below it by that much or stay there that long or then you really can't call it support. But when I say 4,000 support, it's an approximation. Obviously, you can't draw a line in the sand and say there's no way the the market's going to go below 4,000 because if you think that, of course, it's going to happen because people will get long and they'll put a sell stop at $39.99 thinking, you know, they can't get hit.
And so the market would go and take those those stops out. So when I talked about 4,000 support, it was a range near 4,000. And in fact, in some of the violent sell-offs that we've had, I don't think I've seen the market below 1300. I think we got close to 3900. Uh but then we got back above 4,000. And so to me, this is the support zone.
This is exactly what happened when gold was at 3,000. And if you recall when I said 3,000 was the new 2000 and I was telling people that 3000 was support. Yes, we traded below 3,000 on several occasions while I said it was the support, but then at some point it took off and never traded below 3,000 again.
Uh I think the same thing is going to happen with 4,000. Yes, you're going to have some opportunities to buy below 4,000, but at some point we're going to run out of those opportunities. The price is going to go well above 4,000 and never return uh beneath it. Same thing happened at 2,000, except we spent a lot more time around 2,000 than we did at 3,000.
But I was saying the same thing the LA, you know, the last time we hit 2000, which was in early, I think 2024. And I was telling people that this was the floor. Everybody thought that 2000 was the ceiling. That's why you had all these companies downgrading pneumonic because they said gold has topped.
It can't go up. And I said, well, that's a great indicator that it's bottomed and can't go down, right? When the mainstream is downgrading these stocks. and and so it happened at 2,000, it happened at 3,000, it's happening at 4,000. But the fact that so many people have gotten so bearish so quickly, that's a positive indicator to me.
I wasn't that worried that a few people finally noticed gold and wanted to buy it. Mining stocks have suffered disproportionately despite the fact that gold and silver remain structurally elevated. Junior and senior miners as well as relevant ETFs have experienced a 15 to 20% decline from their most recent highs, while metal prices have experienced a less significant decline.
This spread implies that miners are either anticipating additional disappointments or pricing in risk. However, it also suggests that there is potential for growth. The leveraged potential in miners may be substantial if metal prices stabilize or increase. The current valuations in the sector may be unusually appealing to long-term investors as analysts have projected earnings based on reduced metal prices.
This may serve as the shakeout moment, but I'm certainly happy that those that did are already getting rid of it because they've been scared out of the market. Now, of course, I'm not scared out of the market. I've been longing this market since gold was under 300. But maybe people that bought for the first time at 4,300.
Maybe they got spooked when it got down near 3,900. Even more so in silver. Silver's correction has been even bigger than gold's. Although silver didn't drop this week. Gold was off about 2.5% on the week. Not quite $100, right? Because it had a higher close last week, but silver was basically flat on the week.
Silver closed. It might have been up a little bit. I don't know exactly. It could have been up a dime or so. Uh but silver closed at around $4860 something an ounce, but silver has had a bigger drop from its peak than than gold. Right now, silver is about 10.7% below the high that it hit, which was about 5440ish is where silver got.
What's most significant about silver is that it broke through 50 and it got well above it. Now we've had our first correction. Yes, we've gone back below 50. It's not a line in the sand, just like 4,000 gold wasn't a line in the sand, but we're not that far below 50. 48 12. And I saw it, the lowest I saw silver this week was around 46 and a quarter.
So that was an even bigger decline. But these are upper 40s. You know, silver was at 30 earlier in the year and I was telling people you got to buy $30 silver because I thought that was the floor and the next thing you know we're above 50. Now, yes, I think eventually you'll never see sub $50 silver again.
I think at some point we're going to work through some of the resistance here, shake out some of the new speculators that may have just entered the market and then I think we'll take out 50. We'll take out that 5440 high. We'll take out 55 and then we'll probably never trade below $50 again. Just like 50 was a massive double top.
Uh it's now going to be a massive bottom and you're not going to have the opportunity to buy it. So in the meantime, these are good pullbacks. We haven't had a a decent pullback in gold or silver in a while. You know, we had a lot of shift gold customers that didn't want to buy. they were reluctant to buy because they didn't want to buy the highs.
Well, now you've got a chance to buy, you know, a 10% correction from the highs instead of being scared by the correction and thinking, "Oh, no, the bull market is over." Yes, that's what the correction is designed to do, shake your confidence, right? In bull markets, all the biggest moves are to the downside.
And gold has had much bigger drops. Silver has definitely had much bigger drops than it had uh rallies. And that's a clear sign. These big drops are designed to scare you, to shake people out. And one of the reasons that the drops are so big is people are panicking to get out and you get a a a wave of selling.
And that's what's happened. The smart money that is riding this bull for the long run takes advantage of the decline. And in fact, the shakeout has been bigger in the mining stocks. If you look at the GDX based on where it closed this week, it's down 15.3% from its high a week or two ago. And the GDXJ is down 16.7% from its high.
And of course, a lot of stocks are down more. Just about every silver stock is down more than 20% from its high, which means even though silver is at $48.50, the silver stocks are in bare markets. Why should that be? Why should silver stocks be in a bare market at $48 and a half dollar silver? And of course, the craziest thing about the sell-off in the stock market or the gold stocks and the silver stocks is even though gold and silver prices have fallen, they're still a lot higher than any of the analysts believe that they would be when they did their earnings estimates for these companies.
So even though the prices have come down, the stocks are still very cheap. And gold and silver, they're not going to stay down. These aren't permanent declines. But even if they were, gold and silver mining stocks would still be very cheap at the prices they were before they dropped. They're even cheaper now.
But of course, gold and silver aren't going to stay down. They are going to keep going up. But there's so much fear. There's so much nervousness and uncertainty and doubt right in the market that is very healthy right the only market where you see just absolute conviction nothing can go wrong you can't lose I'm not scared of any decline I'm just going to hold that's in crypto right you have extreme conviction no fear at all nothing but greed and certainty an absolute fact I can't lose if I own Bitcoin.
Bitcoin can only go to the moon, right? It can't even go halfway to the moon. It's in fact, it's going to pass the moon and leave the the solar system. That's how much conviction there is in in crypto. Now, of course, when you get something like that, when everybody thinks they can't lose, they all probably will lose.
Well, in gold, there are a lot of people who are afraid of losing. That's why they got out so quickly. And now you've got a lot of people saying stay away from the gold market. You know, it could really drop. It could go a lot lower, right? It's not going to go a lot lower. It hasn't been doing that ever since we really broke out above 2000.
We have had some corrections along the way and all they've done is shaken out the the the weaker players. So, take advantage of this pullback uh to buy some gold and silver. Now, what happened this week? The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected. We're now down at three and three/4ers four. The Fed also announced the end the official end of their quantitative tightening program.
Uh that's going to end in December. All of this is bullish for gold. More inflation, more easy money. Yes, uh Pal did tease that a December rate cut is not a sure thing. uh it's not according to pal, but I think that since the markets expect one, I expect the Fed to deliver and I think we are going to get a cut.
Now, the cut's not appropriate. Neither was today's cut or this week's cut. The Fed should be hiking rates. Uh but they're not doing that. And so, all of this is very bullish for gold and and silver. But I want to spend the rest of this podcast. Oh, by the way, I I spoke extensively on my last Peter Schiff podcast about uh the the the Feds, the rate cut, the press conference, all that's on my most recent podcast, which I uploaded to this Shift Gold YouTube channel.
So, if you look at the playlist for the Peter Schiff podcast, the the most recent one is there. So after you watch this podcast and you know then you can go and get all the details. I don't want to repeat myself uh when I just put everything up on Wednesday, right? Because Wednesday is when the FOMC concluded their two-day meeting and so I did a podcast on Wednesday evening and it's all there.
Um, now what I want to spend the rest of this podcast talking about is a new uh product that has been up on the Shift Gold website for some time and some of you have actually used it, but I wanted to make sure that we got all the bugs out of it for you, right? And we don't store it ourselves. We have, you know, credible third parties that we work with that, you know, will store the gold in vaults, but the the gold and silver that you buy is in your name, right?
You own it, right? Shift Gold doesn't own it. It's not like my bank was where you have an account and and you're a creditor. You own it. So, you buy it, you own it. We just put it in a vault that you can control through this website. Ultimately, there's going to be an app. We're working on that app.
It'll be launched shortly. And so you won't have to go to a desktop. You could just use your your your your phone and you could bring up the the T-old app and you could buy gold and silver in any denomination. So you could just buy a $100 worth, right? Don't limit yourself to a hundred. You could buy a,000.
You can you could buy 5,000, but you could buy $100 worth if that's all you want to buy. If that's all the the cash that you that you can spare right now. But you can buy it now. Right now the functionality is still limited. So you can buy gold, you could buy silver, you could sell gold and silver, you can hold the proceeds in your account.
So if you sold your gold and you got cash, you can leave the cash there. You don't have to take it. You overall the situation remains favorable. Central institutions continue to accumulate gold as reserves. The demand for silver in the industrial sector remains robust, particularly in the electronic and renewable energy sectors.
and supply constraints are tightening. In the face of inflation, dollar weakness, and credit duress, reports indicate that gold is becoming more appealing as a safe haven. The dual function of silver as an industrial metal and hedge generates a turbocharged upward trajectory, albeit with increased volatility.
In summary, this is not merely a prospective upward trend. The perception of these metals may be altered structurally.
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