저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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Cathie Wood은 현재를 1995년과 유사한 혁신 사이클 초입으로 보며, AI·로보틱스·에너지저장·블록체인 등 혁신 플랫폼이 가속화되고 있다고 주장한다. 감세·규제완화로 2026년 실질 GDP 성장이 예상을 크게 상회하고, 이에 따라 재정적자 축소·인플레이션 하락(제로 이하 가능)·향후 4~5년 내 재정흑자 가능성을 제시한다. 노동시장 약화는 구조적 변화(AI·자동화)로 해석하며, 비트코인은 장기 상승 추세와 기관 채택 측면에서 유리하다고 본다.
다듬은 글
technology. All of them are being catalyzed by AI. Of course, AI can't catalyze itself, but you know what I mean. All of the other platforms are being catalyzed, and I think the the speed of change is going to be pretty shocking over the next few years. And there are shades of it or signs of it in the unemployment report, and we'll get to that in a minute.
I just wanted to point to this chart as well because I just taken a trip through Asia, and it is clear that the only focus in Asia is on tariffs and those headlines, but they're not focused on the massive deregulation that's taking place in the United States, crypto, we're seeing big changes there, of course, legislatively and and um and also in the court system and in the regulatory system.
Financial history has few moments like this. Every few decades, technology and macroeconomic circumstances generate new growth. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest believes we are in 1995, shortly before the internet surged into popular acceptance and altered the global economy. Innovation, excitement, and capital-seeking opportunity drove one of the biggest market growth booms ever.
It ended swiftly, but changed global trade norms. Cathie believes we're seeing the beginnings of something similar, but this time the size of innovation and economic backdrop might make the future years much more transformative. Cathie disagrees with the media's dire predictions, believing inflation is falling, productivity is rising, and technological innovation is preparing the economy for tremendous growth.
Deregulation and innovation in AI, robots, nuclear energy, and blockchain could boost real GDP growth and cut the deficit as a percentage of GDP. One of her strengths not an abstract claim. In the 1980s and 1990s, Reagan-Clinton transition, rapid growth turned deficits into surpluses. Cathie predicts a similar conclusion in the future.
Deregulation also awakens moribund industries. Regulatory hurdles slowed US nuclear energy development for decades, while China grew rapidly. These barriers are falling today. Cathie says the US is entering a new nuclear age as artificial intelligence drives exponential computing power and energy need.
Small modular reactors, enhanced energy storage, and AI and crypto deregulation are enabling productivity improvements that might transform US growth. Her recent analysis from her monthly In the Know podcast is explained in this video. Cathie questions the prevailing perspective of stagnation and crises with a roadmap from the deficit to deregulation, unemployment to innovation platforms.
Stay tuned for her full insights. If you like this forward-thinking perspective, like the video, subscribe to the channel, and comment below. Thanks, and enjoy the video. And we believe, as we've said many times before, that real GDP growth starting later this year into '26, in time for the midterm elections, we think it's going to surprise on the high side of expectations, significantly on the high side of expectations.
And and so we think that is going to be probably the biggest answer to the deficit falling as a percent of GDP. This was also the answer in the Reagan years moving into the Clinton years. There we ended with a surplus. And we we do expect a surplus maybe not in the next three years, but again, just like in the Reagan years, it takes time to turn the profligate spending around and correct for excesses.
So, within the next four to five years, we would not be surprised to see a surplus. Again, very dependent on real GDP growth, and as we've talked about many times in the past, we we do believe that we're ready for prime time for all of the innovation platforms around which we have centered our research and investing for years.
So, robotics energy storage, AI multiomic sequencing in the life science space, and blockchain technology. All of them are being catalyzed by AI. Of course, AI can't catalyze itself, but you know what I mean. All of the other platforms are being catalyzed, and I think the the speed of change is going to be pretty shocking over the next few years.
And there are shades of it or signs of it in the unemployment report, and we'll get to that in a minute. I just wanted to point to this chart as well because I just taken a trip through Asia, and it is clear that the only focus in Asia is on tariffs and those headlines, but they're not focused on the massive deregulation that's taking place in the United States, crypto, we're seeing big changes there, of course, legislatively and and also in the court system and in the regulatory system.
So, there we're seeing the first executive order, I think, that President Trump rescinded, this was a Biden executive order, was on AI to free up innovation in that space. Nuclear energy, all kinds of energy to solve the power needs associated with AI and data centers. Huge deregulation, huge. Now, that is slower in moving by nature but on our site, you will see how much regulation has held back nuclear energy here in the United States and in Japan since the '70s and we're rectifying this 50-year problem now at warp speed, at least for that sector.
And just to give you a sense China has is constructing today 28 large-scale nuclear reactors. In the US we are not constructing one. We have been so constrained by regulation. And the antidote to that has been small modular reactors and those are proceeding apace. Again, regulation takes time, but again, proceeding apace.
And we think from the largest to the micro nuclear reactors, we're moving into a nuclear age when Brett Winton and I were at our last firm Brett and his team authored a book, a big black book on nuclear and how safe and sustainable it it it was and is. And then, unfortunately, Fukushima happened in in Japan and unravelled nuclear for yet another another decade, more than a decade.
Again, the regulators had the upper hand around the world. And now we're back we're back. And so so that's good. All of these are going to feed economic growth importantly during the years ahead. And you can see here tax changes that are going to encourage this. So, manufacturing structures if companies get their manufacturing structures up within the next three years, they don't have to be quite in service, but if they have them essentially finished um and maybe to be put in service a little a little later they will be able to depreciate in one year.
The depreciation they will be able to expense in one year what normally would have taken 30 years to depreciate. So, that's massive tax savings, and this this is good for the next three years. And so we think there's going to be an explosion in manufacturing Cathie commences her analysis by focusing on the deficit, which is a lighting rod issue for the markets.
She emphasizes that tariffs and fiscal adjustments are already enhancing the numbers, with the deficit approaching 4.7% of GDP, despite the widespread concern that ballooning debt will stifle development. Nevertheless, the genuine motivator is growth itself. Just as in the 1980s and 1990s, the natural reduction of deficits could be facilitated by a stronger than anticipated expansion of real GDP.
Cathie anticipates that this expansion will occur as a result of the accelerated pace of innovation in numerous sectors. In her opinion, the most potent instruments for reestablishing fiscal health are productivity breakthroughs and deregulation. This establishes her overarching thesis. Our future is not one of stagnation, rather it is one of acceleration.
However, development is not without its challenges. Cathie's subsequent analysis concentrates on the labor market, unemployment, job creation, and the structural changes that AI is already generating. uh capacity and all other kinds uh of investing. And we think there's going to be a huge amount of foreign direct investment uh especially given uh the Trump administration's strong stance.
But you can also see here equipment, uh domestic R&D, software. Uh these are fully expensed in year one. Um now these the these changes have been made permanent. And uh as you can tell, they're aimed squarely at innovation. Uh and so we think that's uh going to cause an explosion in the five platforms I've just mentioned.
They're going into overdrive. Uh and and so we think that's very exciting. And that's part of the growth story uh moving ahead. And importantly, it's part of the productivity boom we see um emerging. And productivity is is is going to be very important in terms of hold not only holding inflation down, but driving it down.
And we've been saying this for quite some time. Inflation may seem stuck in the 2 to 3% range right now, and tariffs are aggravating that of course. Uh but we would not be surprised to see inflation drop in the years ahead to zero or even negative uh because we think the innovation that's taking place now is going to be pretty explosive.
And technologically enabled um innovation is deflationary by nature. Follows learning curves, which are expressed in cost declines. It's all about efficiency. And so we think that's going to be a big part of the story. Uh and here you can see and I've repeated this a few uh a few times, but it is important in terms of attracting investment to the United States.
Adjusting for what I just showed you uh in terms of the depreciation schedules, um the effective corporate tax rate, the tax rate today is 21% down from 35% um uh in the first uh Trump administration. He got it down to 21%. Now they're not operating on the tax rate as much as they are the effective tax rate through these depreciation schedules.
And that will get taxes down to roughly 12%. I was just in Hong Kong, which prides itself on very low tax rates, corporate tax rates, and that has attracted a lot of investment. Uh but if you look at the tax rates there versus uh in the United States, uh at an effective tax rate of 12%, uh we are below Hong Kong's 16 and 1/2%.
I believe they have for very low levels of corporate income uh up to I I can't remember 100,000, something like that. Um uh 8%, but beyond that, and that is what we're talking about, uh 16%. We we are lower uh than the Hong Kong schedules. So that's that's important and interesting. And we're about as low as Ireland.
Uh Ireland's 12, I think it's a 12% tax rate uh has attracted enormous investment, particularly in the pharmaceutical area and the tech sector. And uh we think a lot of that investment, again encouraged by the Trump administration in all kinds of ways, um a lot of that uh will make its way back, at least partially back.
Um So now on to monetary policy. So you can see uh here and the purple line is money growth, the growth in money supply. You can also see going back uh to the early '60s, we've never seen money supply drop as much as it did in recent years, but then again, we never saw it boom as much as it did during COVID.
So that adjustment process is pretty much over. And you can see at 5% it's still below the average of this period, really it's post-World War II period. Now, you can see the green line is CPI inflation. Uh the money supply has been pushed ahead by 18 months. Uh and many people think that the inflation rate follows um with an 18-month lag.
So they are concerned that inflation is turning up from roughly, I think it's 2.7% right now, and will follow uh money growth higher. Um and even today, I think uh one of the Fed governors, Goolsbee, said he's concerned about services inflation, and we'll show you a chart in a moment about that. Um so this is top of mind for the Fed.
I think that Chairman Powell is is very focused on on services inflation as well. Um but we have um reason to believe that services inflation uh is is going to decelerate uh quite significantly. Housing, or or large parts of housing, uh is a part of service inflation, and uh I'll show you in a minute.
The employment report shows mixed results. Unemployment remains at 4.3%, but job growth is declining with several months entering negative territory due to revisions. Workweeks are shortening. Manufacturing is weak, and finance and technology are disrupted. This would raise suspicions for many. However, Cathie sees things differently.
She sees structural change, automation, and AI disrupting labor, blockchain reducing inefficiencies, and layoffs cutting government spending. These changes are challenging yet boost long-term productivity. The same rationale guides her market view. Inflation has dropped. Spreads in the high-yield market reflect little near-term risk and stabilizing Treasury yields.
Commercial real estate and bond excesses signal vulnerabilities. However, Cathie continually calls invention the ultimate motivation. She compares blockchain and AI adoption to the late 1990s internet boom, highlighting the possibility and risk. At that moment, capital moved too fast. Stronger foundation, more technology, and bigger impact.
This study is quite bullish for crypto investors. Bitcoin's long-term increasing tendency compared to gold shows its resilience despite volatility, according to Cathie. If her innovation and development projections are correct, digital assets, notably Bitcoin, will benefit from institutional adoption and their role as hedges in a quickly changing economy.
The AI and blockchain era might confirm crypto's standing as a global market component, like the 1990s internet growth that created trillion-dollar corporations. Cathie would maybe right. We are not at the end of a cycle. We're starting one. As new technologies change income generation and growth, innovation may surprise even the most optimistic analysts in 5 years.
Your thoughts? Are markets similar to 1995? Tell us in the comments. Share, subscribe, and like this video with other cryptocurrency and innovation enthusiasts. I appreciate your attention.
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