저자: Nick · 외국인
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버크셔 해서웨이는 Abel 체제 전환 후 현금을 줄이고 알파벳 등에 투자·자사주 매입을 늘림. 마이클 버리는 CAPE 약 41(역사적 상위 1%)을 근거로 버크셔가 고점 가격에 자산을 사는 '보여주기'라고 비판하며 시장 붕괴(1987형) 가능성 경고. 반대론으로 UBS·Semper Augustus 등은 버크셔 방어력 긍정 평가. 버리의 과거 풋옵션 포지션(팔란티어·엔비디아)은 과거 공개 정보로 예측 아님.
다듬은 글
At the end of March, Berkshire Hathaway had $397 billion in cash and Treasury bills. By all estimates, this is the largest amount of free cash ever raised by a public company. And in just 3 months, this amount decreased to 366 billion. This is the first quarterly reduction in 4 years. And this happened precisely in the first 6 months since Greg Abel replaced Buffett as CEO.
Some see this use of cash as a sign that Berkshire is strengthening its confidence. But Michael Berry sees it differently. On August 10, he publicly stated that he did not consider Berkshire an attractive investment in the future. And 6 days before that, Berry warned that we were approaching the peak before a crash similar to 1987.
So, the investor who successfully bet on the US housing market going down has now essentially bet against America's most reliable company. So today we'll break down what Abel did when he took control of Berkshire in the first two quarters, why Berry says the problem is the price, and what Berry's own portfolio suggests about why he may have wanted that money to stay put.
My name is Nick and this is The Finance Bureau. Okay, let 's start by taking a closer look at Berkshire's monumental cash pile. For 4 years, Berkshire's strategy was to do nothing, and it produced excellent results. At the time of this video, 3-month Treasury bills have a yield of 3.89% and 10-year bills have a yield of 4.72%.
So, the biggest pile of money on the planet was receiving a guaranteed risk-free income while the core business continued to make a profit. Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks for 14 consecutive quarters. That's 3.5 years during which Warren Buffett watched the American stock market and refused to participate in it.
The standard criticism was that it was "dead money", a lack of courage, or that the old man had simply stopped acting. And then Abel comes along, spends $31 billion in one quarter, and analysts instantly change their forecasts to positive. But the conventional interpretation that Berkshire is becoming bullish on the market again fails to explain one thing—the price it paid.
Remember, Buffett still works at Berkshire. He's simply no longer the CEO. So how does capital allocation management actually work in such a company? Well , on January 1, 2026, Greg Abel became CEO with full operational control, ending the Buffett era that began in 1965. Buffett remained chairman of the board, and they agreed to coordinate their actions.
Speaking to CNBC, Buffett described the arrangement this way, quote: “I don’t do anything that he doesn’t approve of. He doesn't do anything that I don't approve of. We communicate constantly , but he makes the decisions ." End of quote. Greg Abel is the decision maker. So , if you don't know how Berkshire actually works, the operating business is not the main product.
Railroads, insurance companies, utilities, developers—they generate cash, and the product is what one person decides to do with that cash. This is capital allocation, which is simply a decision about where the next dollar will actually go. And at Berkshire, for 60 years, it was focused on Buffett's mind.
That's why the market has never valued this company solely on its assets. Berkshire shares trade at a price-to-book multiple of 1.48 on a market capitalization of $1.11 trillion. And this gap over book value is a premium for that judgment. And when the judgment passes into other hands, the premium is paid to someone new.
So, a direct consequence of this transfer of authority is a series of decisions. And it so happened that these decisions were already recorded. Let's start with stocks, as Berkshire became a net buyer for the first time in 14 quarters . Approximately $23.5 billion in stock purchases versus about $3.7 billion in sales in the second quarter.
The big investment there is Alphabet. On June 1, Berkshire conducted a $10 billion private placement. $5 billion of Class A shares at $351 per share and $5 billion of Class C shares at $348 per share. This was part of Alphabet's $ 84.75 billion capital raise to fund AI development. And Berkshire bought them at about a 1% discount to the public price.
Add that to the position initiated in late 2025 and expanded in the first quarter, and Alphabet's total stake is now around $30 billion, or just under 9% of the entire public equity portfolio. Berkshire also opened a new position in Delta Airlines worth about $2.65 billion, although it appeared in the 13F report for the first quarter ended March 31, not the second.
And then another, much smaller one, at Macy's for about $55 million, disclosed in the same first- quarter report. But the stock portfolio is only a small part of the story, because Abel also bought entire companies. Developer Taylor Morrison agreed in late May to $72.50 per share in cash, a 24% premium, valuing equity at about $6.8 billion and an enterprise value of about $8.5 billion.
Add that to Clayton Properties, and Berkshire becomes the fourth- largest construction company in the United States, operating in 21 states and 52 markets. This is Abel's first acquisition as CEO, and it's a risky bet on the U.S. housing market, bought at a 24% premium. But it is the share buyback that most clearly demonstrates the change in sentiment.
In the first quarter, Berkshire bought back $ 235 million of its own shares , a barely noticeable gesture for a company of this size . It repurchased $ 4.53 billion in shares in the second quarter . This is the most intense quarter in terms of redemption volumes in the last 5 years. And then about another $3.3 billion by July 29th.
If we sum up the figures for these two quarters, the rate of repurchases increased 19 times in 90 days. Keeping up with such a story, with countless reports and endless discussions, is a difficult task for one person. Here's why you should subscribe to break down everything from global market changes to capital flows that really impact your portfolio, so you never miss a thing.
left of the screen to get started. Well, back to Berkshire. And now it's time to find out what Michael Bury thinks about this. Bury's argument does not apply to each of these companies individually . The point is when exactly they were purchased, or, more precisely, at what price. The Shiller Ratio (CAPE), which is essentially the price of the S&P 500 divided by 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings, is now around 41, versus a long-term average of around 17.5.
And to give you an idea of how exceptional this figure is, my friends, this is roughly the 99th percentile of values dating back to 1881, and a 26-year high. For context: the CAPE ratio was around 32.6 before the 1929 crash and 44.2 at the peak of the dot-coms. So , we are now above the technological peak of 2021 and approaching the level of 2000.
The projected price-to- earnings ratio is approximately 20 versus the 25- year average of about 16.3. And the S&P index continues to fluctuate near historical highs. So, against this backdrop, Apple gave up the guaranteed 3.89% to buy assets at the 99th percentile level over the entire valuation history .
And here comes Bury, who said, and I quote, "My biggest fear about Berkshire Hathaway was that when Warren finally left, the successor would be too old or simply not Warren and therefore would not have the patience to wait for the perfect opportunity." I believe this fear has become a reality. Bury went on to describe this move as, quote, "a gesture for appearance" rather than real confidence .
In other words, a person buys only because it is expected of them . To be honest , there are serious arguments against Bury's view, and they don't come from ordinary optimists . UBS analyst Brian Meredith still sees Berkshire as an attractive defensive asset thanks to its strong balance sheet and profitable investments.
And Chris Blumstrand from Semper Augustus called Abel a real star. Operating income for the quarter rose 16% to nearly $13 billion, helped by BNSF, its energy business, and manufacturing, which is not at all like a company losing control. There is also valid criticism of overreliance on indicators such as the Shiller ratio ( CAPE).
Today's S&P index is defined by technology companies with minimal assets, and modern accounting may underestimate their real profits. In addition, it is worth remembering that the CAPE indicator can remain high for years. They say the market was overheated back in 1996. This was true, but premature by 4 years.
However, the counterarguments mostly boil down to whether the market as a whole is overvalued. This does not explain who exactly will be hit in the event of a fall. And this is where Bury's position becomes very interesting. On November 10, 2025, Michael Bury deregistered Scion Asset Management with the SEC, which ended its obligations regarding quarterly 13F reports and annual ADV forms.
This means that from then on he is not required to disclose his assets. His last public report listed approximately $155 million in assets. Later that month, he launched a newsletter on Substack called “Cassandra Unchained” priced at $39 per month or $379 per year. By July 12, he announced that he had reached the 300,000 subscriber mark.
Financial media estimates the potential annual revenue from this project at between $113 million and $140 million , which would make this newsletter larger than its closed-end fund. You may ask: what exactly does such a newsletter sell? The last disclosed portfolio contained about $912 million in conditional exposure through put options on Palantir and $187 million in Nvidia, which together accounted for almost 80% of his portfolio .
It is important to clarify: this is a notional amount, not real risk capital. Options are recorded at the value of the shares they control, not at the premium paid. Bury himself emphasized that one of the positions in Palantir was worth $9.2 million , despite headlines of hundreds of millions. Since then , with no further reporting obligations, he has talked about buying put options on Nvidia, rolling put options on SoFi for March 2027 with strikes in the $400-$450 range, playing Oracle at around $144 in August, and playing Nevius.
He really lives up to his reputation as a "bear," does n't he, guys? But there 's an important dynamic here that's worth paying attention to if you missed it . Berry harshly criticizes Berkshire for signaling to the market that it is time to buy. But Berry runs a business that "sells" the crash, holds a portfolio that makes a profit during the crash, and is no longer obligated to show anyone what's in it.
Buying Berkshire stock doesn't necessarily mean he's wrong; it simply means that the world's largest cash "cushion" that remained uninvested was, professionally speaking, very convenient for him . But if Berry does turn out to be right and we see a 1987-style collapse, the big question is whether Abel will leave his chips on the table.
After all, it is cash reserves that allow Berkshire to operate when markets are gripped by extreme fear. And Berkshire was one of the few institutions on Wall Street able to hold onto that cash for years, even when many ridiculed them for it. The premium the market paid for this company never depended on railroads, insurance reserves, or book value.
It was based on the belief that one person, Buffett, was willing to wait for the right moment to execute a deal while everyone else panicked. Abel is now squandering that trust under some of the most extreme valuations in the history of the American market . One thing is for sure: no matter where the market goes, either Abel or Berry will look like someone who made an epic mistake.
What do you think? Is Greg Abel justified in putting that cash into the work? Or maybe Berry will have the last laugh? Let us know what you think what Berkshire actually invested in with that $10 billion in Alphabet and how much credit the development of artificial intelligence really has, you can watch our video about it righ see you soon . Nick was with you, all the best.
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