저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Faber는 금 강세장이 끝나지 않았다고 주장하며, 금이 4,000~3,000달러로 조정될 수 있으나 장기적으로 2만~3만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 광산주는 비싸지 않지만 하락할 것으로 전망. 그는 귀금속 비중이 크고, 달러 표시 자산 비중이 가장 크다고 밝힘. 달러는 가치 저장 수단으로 실패했고 중앙은행의 돈 찍기가 누적되어 종이화폐 가치가 하락한다고 주장. 중앙은행과 Wall Street에 대한 불신을 표명하고 유가 숏 포지션 과열도 언급.
다듬은 글
I don't think that miners are terribly expensive. I say I think they'd go down in price. I don't believe that the gold bull market is finished. I think it will continue. Now, can it you know, we went over $5,000 per oz. Can it drop to 4,000 or 3,000? Yes, but it can also go up to 20, 30,000. As I said, I have a very large exposure in two precious metals.
The time may come where I would say say, I put in precious metals. I haven't done it yet, but I have friends who are truly gold bugs. They have 80% of their assets in gold and gold in precious metals. Gold, silver, and the future of paper money are again at the center of debate. Mark Faber argues that the gold bull market is unfinished despite potential corrections.
He notes gold could drop to $4,000 or $3,000 after a rally, but its long-term trend remains strong, possibly reaching $20,000 or $30,000 per oz. Mark Faber, a contrarian investor and market historian, continues to hold significant precious metals exposure, explaining that owning gold or silver reflects skepticism towards central banks and paper currencies.
This discussion goes beyond price targets. It addresses protection against currency weakness, rising debt, and the long-term effects of money printing. look at myself. Of course, I'm someone who has advocated owning precious metals for the last 40 years, and I buy every month some, and I also tell people that they should own some precious metals because if they don't own it, they trust central banks.
And look at the characters that sit in these central banks. Would you trust them? Definitely not. But but I'm also a holder of dollars because I have a financial business and I buy and sell securities and occasionally I have liquidity because of my views and occasionally I have liquidity because I sold a position that we own and so forth.
Anyway, the bulk is still nowadays in US dollars. I have some portfolios which I value in euros and I have some portfolios I value in Swiss francs. And the valuations will fluctuate a lot depending on the assets and it fluctuates frequently in unexpected ways. I as I said, I have a very large exposure into precious metals.
But the time may come where I would say I put all in precious metals. I haven't done it yet, but I have friends who are truly gold bugs. They have 80% of the assets in gold and gold in precious metals. Yes, 80% or they they don't own real estate, they don't own stocks, they own gold shares. But they don't they're not not interested in a company in Asia or anything.
They're interested in gold related assets and silver and platinum. Mhm. There are people like that. But but what I wanted to say is if you go, where do you live? Canada. Canada, okay. Let's say you go to a cocktail party of well-to-do people and you ask them, "Oh, you've seen the price of gold and silver has gone up.
Do you own any?" And then they will say, "Yes, we own." And the wife will say, "Yes, I have a earring from my grandmother." And so forth. But people, and Canada is one of the better countries in gold ownership because it's the mining sector is very large within the stock exchange. But the typical Canadian doesn't own more than say 3-4% in gold.
Also fund managers, we can measure how the fund managers allocate money in tech stocks, in coal and in minerals Mhm. and in gold, silver, platinum and in health care and so forth. The exposure to gold gold ETFs as a percentage of all ETFs is tiny. Exposure to energy is tiny. Before the energy market soared recently, I wrote a report.
I have the chart. I published the chart in February about the record short position in oil futures. That that are the hedge funds. The people give money to the hedge fund community. They are managing and they are they are record short in oil. I didn't sell the physical but I moved someone into miners.
Okay. But I also sold again some miners. Mhm. Uh but but I didn't sell enough. I mean I should have sold more. It's always the same story. You know, you buy too much of things that don't go up and you don't sell enough of things that go down. I don't think that miners are terribly expensive. I say I think they'll go down in price.
I don't believe that the gold bull market is finished. I think it will continue. Now can it you know, we went over $5,000 per ounce. Can it drop to 4,000 or 3,000? Yes, but it can also go up to 20-30,000. I think Kevin Walsh is not a money printer. I think he's basically a reasonable man. And [clears throat] I've listened to some of his speeches.
He has deep knowledge of economics. Unlike Bernanke and Yellen, she had no clue about she's clueless about anything. But uh and Powell is a better I mean I I've been critical of the central bank for the last 40 years. Whereby I always said Greenspan is a highly intelligent man intellectually. He has his shortcomings, but uh as an intellect, he's brilliant.
He was a horrible forecaster and uh a relatively poor economist as a economist in the in his profession. He had like no clients left when he closed his firm and became Fed Fed chairman. But he was suitable as Fed chairman because he suited you have to understand Wall Street is very powerful. The money in America is very powerful.
Do you think that Wall Street likes to have declining asset prices? No. Their fees come from the size of the assets, not the quality of the assets. The size. And they will always wish that the Fed prints money. They will you will never find a Wall Street economist that really tells the public that the Fed is making a huge mistake that they should tighten monetary policy and see asset prices drop 30% because then they would become affordable.
Why Why is the housing market not doing all that well in terms of sales volume? Because houses are too expensive. Nobody can afford them except the 1%. Marc Faber's warning becomes even sharper when he turns to the dollar and the broader paper money system. He says the dollar is a doomed currency, but also makes clear that other currencies may not be much better.
In his view, paper money can serve as a unit of account for buying and selling goods, but it has failed as a long-term store of value because its purchasing power has declined over time. He explains that once governments and central banks resort to money printing to solve problems, it becomes very difficult to stop.
And politicians typically avoid the necessary pain to stay in power. This leads the system to require ever more new money to operate. For investors, this underscores why precious metals are essential. Gold and silver serve as protection from major policy errors and currency risk, not simply as trades.
Now, let's get back to the interview. My sense is that the dollar is a doomed currency, for sure, for sure. But the others may not be better. You understand? That's why a lot of young people, they buy cryptocurrencies. I have some serious reservations about cryptocurrencies, but I don't want to give a speech on the topic.
My preference is to own precious metals, but I see the necessity of paper money for the purpose of buying and selling goods because, you know, you go into a department store, you need a a unit of account to buy something. And for that unit of account, paper money is suitable. But it would seem to me that paper money is not suitable as a store of value because the purchasing power of money, and I can say that I look at the prices I paid in the '50s and '60s when I was growing up and the prices I have to pay now of course paper money has lost purchasing power.
On the other hand, assuming I put all the money on deposit in treasury bills and I rolled it over or I put it all in gold then the purchasing power was probably better maintained. Do you understand? We still accumulating interest. So the calculations are not so easy. But in general if you look at history the value of paper money has always gone down to next to zero always because when problems arise in a social system that knows money the solution to the problems the optimal solutions would be tight monetary policy and default but these measures are so painful on society that the rulers or the politicians will not choose them because the principle concern of a ruler a king or a lord or an emperor or a democracy is to stay in power for the party to stay in power.
So they use the method of printing money to overcome the near-term problems and they say to themselves well we'll solve that issue later but once you embark on money printing and this I want to observe and really emphasize once you embark on money printing like Bernanke did in December 2008 you cannot stop it without significant pain and the significant pain is avoided by printing more.
Now, in the theory of economics in the classical theory, it shown that you need to print increasing quantity to keep the system going. Like as you know, the interest payments on the government debt has gone through the roof. It will continue to go up and soon it could be the entire budget. Yeah. At that time, what else do you want than print money?
I think there is enough in every country people would like to have a new leadership. But what does the new leadership bring about? And I want to warn you viewers not to think that the Iranians who live in Hollywood and the US and London and so forth, that they're necessarily representative of the people of Iran.
Now, these are people they left Iran. Many of them wished the Shah of Iran because their properties were expropriated during the revolution. But you have to see one thing very clearly. And this I mean, for me is difficult to understand. The Shah of Iran was not the ideal leader. But to be fair to him, he wanted to modernize Iran.
And his modernization programs were obstructed. And the resistance came from the clergy, the mullahs. And they wanted him out. And who then supported the mullahs? The Western world. They got They got the Shah out. Mhm. Yeah. We've seen that in many places. people in Iran, I mean, I think most people would welcome a different government.
Mhm. That I probably agree with you. But a different government doesn't mean that they will uh embrace the Israelis and say, "Oh, Netanyahu is such a nice man, and he liberated us." Do you think that the people will think that way? It's possible. But, we still need a unit of account for trade. But, I'm concerned that if this war escalates, and I said China and Russia, and by the way, Kazakhstan and Afghanistan and Pakistan and India, nobody has an interest that the US controls Iran.
They will all want, and also the Middle East, they don't want the Americans to control the entire Middle East, because they will think, "If America could walk into Iran and occupy the country, they can do the same to me in the United Arab in Saudi Arabia and so forth and so on. And by the way, if you want to have a population and find a population that is not particularly happy, go anywhere in the Middle East, because the poor people haven't progressed as much as the rich, obviously not.
Marc Faber urges investors to look past short-term moves and consider the system's structure. He acknowledges gold corrections occur within bull markets, but believes the potential upside grows as confidence in paper currencies erodes. He sees mining shares as reasonably priced, though volatile and difficult during corrections.
This sector attracts investors who understand risk, timing, and patience. This is why his outlook connects gold, silver, miners, debt, central banks, and geopolitics into one larger picture. The world is entering a dangerous financial transition, and precious metals may become increasingly important as trust in paper assets weakens. .
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