저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
통화가치 하락으로 금·은이 신뢰받는 자산이라는 주장. 위기 시 유동성 확보를 위해 금을 매도하는 압력이 단기적으로 나타날 수 있으나 기관의 금·은 보유 비중이 극히 낮아 장기 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 상업용 부동산 하락, 마진론 증가, 암호화폐 손실, 물가가 임금보다 빠르게 오르는 점이 유동성을 악화시킨다고 지적. 미국 주식(엔비디아·테슬라 등)은 크게 하락했고 추가로 약 50% 하락 가능성 언급. 채권이 주식보다 손실이 적다고 판단하나 금리 인하가 채권 강세로 이어지지 않는다고 봄. 석유 관련주는 비중이 줄어 가치가 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Most people around the world, they know what the coin is of gold and silver. Everybody knows. And so, when the prices of gold and silver go up, they store some money in gold and silver. But, also they store it there because they've seen how the purchasing power of money has diminished. You understand?
20 years ago, a soup on the street or some street food would cost, say, 20 cents, and now it costs a dollar. So, they know that gold keeps its value. But, when there is a crisis, an economic crisis, what do they sell? Global markets are entering a period when ordinary people realize a simple truth, paper money loses value while gold and silver remain trusted stores of wealth.
Marc Faber explains that around the world, especially in poorer countries, people may not fully understand stocks, bonds, or complex financial markets, but they do understand gold, silver, property, and other real assets. When prices rise and currencies lose value, families naturally look for something they can hold outside the banking system.
Faber warns that in crises, people may sell gold because it is liquid and private, easier to sell than a home or car. This can create short-term pressure even in a long-term bull market. Still, his larger message is clear, global ownership of gold, silver, and platinum remains extremely small, especially among financial institutions.
That means precious metals may still be far from a true speculative peak. . In a poor country, people have as assets, the the main asset is a house because when they get some money, they know something about the house price because the neighbor has sold his house or [clears throat] you understand? It's something that is near to their daily lives.
They have in poor countries, whether it's Indonesia or Bangladesh, India or here, they have no clue what a stock is. They don't know. They don't know what bonds are. So, they buy properties. And what they also buy is when they get into some monetary conditions that are favorable, they buy a motorcycle because then they can go to work further away and they become mobile.
They can go into the city and earn a higher salary, which they couldn't do before. And then they buy, if they do well, then they become they become more affluent, they buy a car. And then they buy life insurance for the children and so on. But stocks is very moved. But most people around the world, they know what a coin is of gold and silver.
That everybody knows. And so, when the prices of gold and silver go up, they store some money in gold and silver. But also, they store it there because they've seen how the purchasing power of money has diminished. You understand? 20 years ago, a soup on the street or some street food would cost, say, 20 cents and now it costs a dollar.
So, they know that gold keeps its value. But when there is a crisis, an economic crisis, what do they sell? They have children, they have wives, they have obligations. They don't want to sell the house because then they have to move into more unfavorable social conditions, and that is embarrassing for the children and the wives.
And they don't want to sell the car, which is a mortgage and they have they have installment credit, because they need the car to go to work. And so, when they have a liquidity issue for themselves in the household, it can also be someone is sick and or the [clears throat] or someone needs urgently money.
The one thing they can always sell and nobody sees it is the golds they own. And so, when prices go up and they are relatively high in the current crisis, they're selling it. And then there are central banks. You understand, in the Middle East, the Middle Eastern countries have big surpluses, and they have these large sovereign funds.
And the sovereign funds, they are there to basically it's like a pension fund of the population of Saudi Arabia or of the population of the United Arab Emirates and so forth. But now, the cash flow of these countries is down because although the price of oil is up, they're selling less. And so, there is some selling pressure among gold holders.
But I want to reassure your viewers, since you told me that they're interested in precious metals. [clears throat] If you look at the ownership of gold and silver and platinum around the world, especially among financial institutions, it's tiny, tiny. In other words, say if you look at portfolio managers in the US, most of them in their portfolios have next to zero exposure to gold.
They also have very little exposure to oil. Say, in 1980, at the last peak of the oil boom of the '70s, when oil had gone from essentially a dollar in 1970 to close to $50 on the spot market. At that At the time, oil and oil-related stocks made up for 35% of the S&P 500. We're now down to around 5%.
So, I think oil stocks are reasonably good value. I mean, if you ask me, "Mark, you must buy stocks today," which I don't really want to do, but I think I would also buy some mining companies, although I think that the mining stocks are not acting well, that they will go down first. As I said, I personally I sleep very well with my gold holdings.
And the bonds I have as a cash flow instrument that I consider reasonably safe. I mean, I I think Yeah, I lose less on my bond positions, which are different maturities. Every year, some bonds mature. But, I think I lose less money on bonds than on Nvidia and Tesla and the Fang Seven stocks and the Magnificent Seven stocks and all these popular investments.
Marc Faber's main warning is about liquidity. He says many investors misread liquidity by focusing only on central bank money supply or interest rates. In reality, liquidity can vanish when asset prices fall, margin debt rises, property values drop, and consumers are squeezed. He cites weaknesses in commercial real estate, speculative stocks, crypto losses, and rising living costs as signs that financial pressure is mounting beneath the surface.
When wages lag behind everyday prices, people spend less, and that weakness eventually surfaces in the economy. Faber also expects future economic statistics to look very bad because people are worried, cautious, and less willing to spend. This creates a dangerous environment for overpriced assets, especially those driven by speculation rather than real value.
Gold and silver remain defensive assets in this setup. Let's get back to the interview. I think that the concept of liquidity is frequently misunderstood, and one looks at the M supply of central banks and the interest rates movements, and people say when interest rates are going up that the Fed is tightening and when interest rates are going down that they're easing.
But that is not entirely correct. There are many other factors that influence global liquidity, and especially liquidity in individual markets. Say, if you look at commercial properties in the United States and also elsewhere, they have declined significantly in price. So, if the Fed funds rate is, I'd say, 4% and commercial properties drop by 8% per annum, then the interest rate for the property owners, for the commercial property owners, I must specify, is incredibly high.
And the same will happen in say, the stock market, if the margin debt, which is very large, is over a trillion dollars, if that margin debt is faced with asset prices that go down, liquidity becomes tight. And my point is that in because of the war in the Middle East, many businesses have slumped and many central banks have essentially less money than they had before the crisis occurred, the intervention in Iran.
And so, we have many different influences that have an impact on global equity. We have, as I mentioned, the collapse in commercial property values has reduced the liquidity. We have stocks that basically haven't really gone up for the last 12 18 months. In fact, since 2021, many stocks have gone down.
If you look at, say, the two most favorable favorite stocks at the beginning of 2025, in other words, a year ago, were Nvidia and Tesla. They've gone up nowhere. And these stocks are all down very substantially. And then, we have a illiquidity occurring in cryptos because many crypto traders, they came in late.
They didn't buy Bitcoins below 10,000. They bought Bitcoins around 100,000. They're all underwater now. And they bought speculative meme stocks and tokened stocks and so forth. They're all underwater. And now, we also have the illiquidity that occurs when prices go up and the salaries of people don't go up at the same rate.
So, they are squeezed. So, what people call in through inflation, what people call, but actually, it's a monetary phenomenon that occurs because money, when it's increased, when the quantity goes up, it doesn't flow evenly into the system, but it lifts asset prices somewhere or it lifts in flight or or it inflates asset prices somewhere and occasionally it inflates uh the necessities of life.
In other words, the prices in supermarkets go up and this is happening right now. And then, as you know, in life, the psychology of people is very important. Do people feel good? Are you feeling happy? Are you willing to buy something? Or are you feeling somewhat restrained by conditions that occur around you?
And I think uh from my observation, because I go out a lot and so forth and meet a lot of people, my observation is that people are worried. They are concerned and they spend less. And in my view, the economic statistics that will be published will be very bad. Well, this is a very interesting subject and we need a few hours to discuss it in details.
But the essence of interest rates is that they move in long-term cycles. So, if I go back 200 years, I can say they went up until then and then down and so forth. And in this century, they went up until 1921 and then they had a declining trend until the Second World War. And after the Second World War, they started to gradually increase and this increase in interest rates then accelerated in the late '60s and '70s with a peak in interest rates in 1981.
To be precise, September 21, 1981. And then, after this September '81, we had a declining interest rate structure in the US and worldwide until say May to August 2020, when the 10 years notes, the 10 years Treasury bond, which had yielded more than 15% in 1981, in August 2020, it went down and had a yield of 0.57 %.
0.57%. And from there, the trend of interest rates has been up. Now, the Fed started to cut rates under Mr. Biden in September 2024, gradually, but they started to cut. And what happened, and this is very interesting, and investors must realize this, the Fed does not control interest rates. They control short-term rates to a large extent.
In other words, they can cut the Fed fund rate to zero, but the long bond, the the 10 years and 30 year bonds, they may not go the interest rates on these bonds may not go down, but it may go up. And this is what has happened since September 2024. Instead of bonds rallying, the bond market went down.
And Mr. Trump, in his complete ignorance about everything, including economics, and Mr. Bessant is not much better. They think they can cut rates and that bonds will rally. That is a fallacy. It the bonds will rally the day there is a recession and the day there is an absence of inflationary pressures.
But right now, the inflationary pressures are there, and if they are not on the downside on the upside. So whereas I'm relatively bullish about bonds, but I want to explain why I am bullish about bonds because I think that people should learn to invest with the philosophy or the strategy how do I lose the least money in the next 5 years?
You understand? So in bonds, say a 10 years treasury I don't think you you lose a lot of money. You lose some purchasing power, but in stocks many stocks in my view they they will drop another 50% from where they are. And they've dropped already 50% from their highs. Marc Faber's outlook is not built on excitement or hype.
It is built on caution. He believes investors should stop asking how much money they can make and start asking a more important question. How can they lose the least money over the next 5 years? He says he sleeps well holding gold seeing it as protection amid inflation, debt, weak liquidity, and unstable markets.
He thinks many stocks may still fall sharply, potentially another 50% from current levels. He is constructive on some bonds not because they are perfect, but because they may lose less than speculative stocks. His approach is defensive, not aggressive. For gold and silver investors the takeaway is clear.
Short-term selling can occur, but long-term ownership remains tiny as trust and paper money declines. . Mhm.
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