저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
중동 지정학 위기로 유가·인플레 압력이 재부각되며 연준이 긴축 전환 가능성이 커졌다. 반도체는 급등 후 이익 기반 조정(FEMO 크래시)이므로 매도보다 기회로 보며, 전쟁 미종결로 불확실성은 여전하다.
다듬은 글
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. Join us for the discussion, and I'm happy to announce that Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research is joining us to learn more. Ed, welcome back to the program, my friend. So, I was used to ignoring this situation. I wake up this morning with the desire to ignore the situation.
Can I ignore the latest situation in the Middle East? And no, absolutely not. I mean, this is, uh , a geopolitical crisis that just, uh, isn't going anywhere, isn't going to end. Uh, the ceasefire, according to the president, is over, and, uh, he's clearly in a position to know and in a position to end it .
Uh, we're back to square one in some respects, back to where we were in March. I think, however, I think both sides are checking each other out. I think the president is, uh, demonstrating to the Iranians that while they can obviously have a significant impact on the flows through the strait, he can cut off their oil to the rest of the world.
Uh, I think the worrying development here may be that Iran is effectively out of control. Uh, what , uh, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps , uh, disagrees with whoever he is, quote, on the moderate side. The moderation is that they would like to see the ceasefire continue and reach some kind of agreement.
But, uh, the president has made it clear that, uh, it's very unpleasant, if not impossible, to negotiate with the other side. And so it's obvious that we can't ignore it. This is a bit strange at this point, as John mentioned that oil prices are not higher yet, if the truth is indeed over. Although the growth rate is quite noticeable.
The two-day rise in both Brent and WTI is the biggest since at least April. And you just see some kind of surge upwards. Is there any trigger point in the growth rate or at a level that might make you reconsider even expanding trading in US stocks? Uh, Alisa, the honest answer is: uh, I don't know. Nobody knows for sure, but, uh, we're all watching the price dynamics in the market, especially in the oil market, and I think we're seeing that we're constantly reminded that there was an empty oil market before the war started in late February .
Uh, the empty market actually started when Russia invaded Ukraine. We had a big surge there, and since then we've had a big decline until this war started. Uh , so to speak, uh, and of course everyone was surprised by how quickly the price of oil fell. And I think it just reflects the fact that in China they've really embraced electric vehicles, and also their economy is really, really weak.
And besides, the United States has turned away because the Russians are selling more oil to China, India and other countries, while we are exporting a lot of oil to Japan and South Korea. So, putting it all together, the fundamentals for oil are actually bearish, but definitely not bearish in the short term with the ceasefire ending.
The volatility that we're seeing, Ed, just highlights how strong inflationary pressures are coming from a lot of places and seem to be staying persistent, even as you want to say that there's potentially a surplus because of all these , uh, these, uh, exhaust valves that you were talking about? At what point do you think this market is underestimating the risk that inflation will pick up a little bit, putting pressure, yes, on the Fed, but potentially putting pressure on some of the profit margins, uh, for companies that are facing a pretty jaded consumer ?
Well, before the June FOMC meeting, we thought the Fed would change its stance quite significantly from easing in April to tightening in June. And that's exactly what happened. The big surprise for me was that Kevin Warsh ended up among the " hawks," because when he was interviewed for the position, he certainly sounded dubious.
Uh, now the Fed seems to be almost entirely on board with the idea that price stability is much more important than the labor market. The job market seems stable, but, uh, you know, all bets could be off here, depending on what happens with the Middle East. Um, you know, things are going great for consumers, but if we see gas prices spike again , there could be some geopolitical fatigue.
Meanwhile, the market has been facing AI fatigue, and, you know, as I saw in your briefings to all the strategists you interviewed recently, everyone was talking about rotation. I was talking about rotating , uh, from AI trading to companies that we know something about, uh, and we know their future better than AI companies.
And it was the Dow Jones, it was the Russell 2000. But now we're all back, as I said, to the beginning in some sense, uh, with respect to the Middle East. And that became the main focus. And, and you're right , inflation fears are back in play. And as a result, the Fed is back in the game. The Fed has not only returned to tightening monetary policy, but it may have to tighten it further.
It's a three- strikes combination now to make my point, Ed. This is not just a situation in the energy sector. To your point of view, right? This is how you factor it into your interest rate forecast. And the third point is the rotation, a rather sharp rotation from high-flying companies in this stock market right now.
Lisa Shallow of Morgan Stanley has been pretty harsh over the past 24 hours. She said: "While many investors are waiting for an actual slowdown in AI capex before reducing exposure to semiconductors, given what is implied about the sustainability of future growth, we are now booking profits." Ed, you were there too, and I just want to hear your updated opinion on where the chip market trading is right now, given the 16% growth we've had in just a few weeks.
Yes. Well, obviously we had, uh, a huge rally in the semiconductor market, and that, of course, uh, led to a rise in the stock market. Uh, but, uh, the thing is, this is n't a FOMO (fear of missing out ) crash. It was a FEMO (fear of avoiding missing things) crash. Fear of missing out ( FO) refers to the fear of missing out, which usually leads to very inflated valuation ratios, which is essentially a valuation-driven crash.
It was a profit-driven crash , and I would have preferred a profit-driven crash. I think there's, uh, less downside here than there was in the FOMO crash, and I think it creates more, um, opportunities in the market because, uh, the fact is that earnings have actually justified the growth in semiconductors, and it's not just expectations, but expectations based on real realities.
So I would view this sell-off as an opportunity rather than a reason to panic. But, uh, now we're not seeing so much panic as massive profit-taking, because there were huge profits. So, Ed, you wrote about this. When are you going to start buying these chips, these chip names that were beaten in just a few weeks?
Well, I-I think we're pretty close because these things move, uh, you know, they don't do something leisure-style. and they rise very quickly, and fall very quickly. So I think there's an opportunity now. But I say this with some hesitation, given that I do n't really know, nobody really knows how this latest ceasefire will end, uh, and, um, the war isn't over yet - that's the main thing, and the stock market is working to discount that, identifying the energy market as well. Ed, thank you, sir. Shanti, your research.
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