저자: OndrejSlunecko · 외국인
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결론: 주택건설주는 실적 선행지표가 급락 중이라 숏 기회로 보이며, 시장이 이를 무시하고 있다는 주장. 주택건설주 밸류에이션: DR Horton은 신고가 근처이고 P/E 5.7 수준으로 싸 보이지만, 이는 착시라고 주장. KB Homes 취소율: 2023년 4분기 취소율 68%로 과거 평균 약 20% 대비 비정상적으로 높음. 수주 및 실적 선행지표: KB Homes 순주문 80% 감소, 수주잔고 약 50% 감소(6bn→3.6bn). 실적은 12~18개월 후행이라 매출 하락이 곧 나타날 것이라 주장. Lennar도 신규주문 15%, 수주잔고 21% 감소. 금리와 주택 수요: 2020~2022년 모기지 금리 2.7~3.1%로 주택 수요 급증, 2022년 금리 상승 후 판매 급감. 비상장 부동산 펀드: KKR, Blackstone 등 부동산 신탁의 환매 제한이 발생. 사적 평가 NAV는 공개시장 대비 늦게 조정되어 불투명하다고 지적. 투자 판단: 주택건설주는 버블이며 최소 50% 하락 가능성이 있다고 주장하나, 확률은 낮게 봄. 하반기 금리 인하 기대가 반등 요인이라고 언급. 본인은 숏 포지션을 권하지만 직접 하지는 않을 것이라고 밝힘. 리스크: 금리 인하 시 수요 회복 가능성, 숏의 구조적 위험.
다듬은 글
oh boy oh boy oh boy welcome everyone Jim Cramer says chars are screaming it's not too late to buy home builder stocks well whenever Jim Cramer obviously says anything it's time to do 180 and look for the proof of the opposite right because you know we know how it is you don't necessarily want to do the opposite of everything Kramer says but you should at least look into it because there might be something interesting to find so when I saw this headline I went to do a little bit of a digging and actually take a look what you know could there be an interesting opportunity for a short and to give you the bottom line first you know in case you don't have maybe you know like 10 minutes or for how long I'm going to be rambling here there is quite a bubbly in a home builder stocks in my opinion I think it could be a nice opportunity to short obviously that's a little bit trickier to to actually do right so you know always be very careful there in the market but if you have couple extra minutes to spare let me show you why I think it could be a nice opportunity to either short home builders or in you know like if you are in them with a long position then at least take a second look right so let's get into it um so first you know like let's look at some of the home builders maybe the biggest one in the US right the DR Horton where are they oh pretty much close to all-time highs seems like you know everything's relatively solid the B ratio 5.7 that you know if you just look at the most basic metric that seems like quite undervalued right so you know might be a decent long position well not so fast not so fast right and actually I have to give shout out to to one of the guys here named Nick Gurley on Twitter feel free to follow him uh definitely some interesting insight into the real estate market but there is such an interesting chart about the KB Homes this time right so you know obviously there is a bunch of you know seven eight big big home builders in that couple billions range you know big companies publicly traded and KB Homes a large home builder just reported 68 canceller rates 68 oh my God that's freaking insane you know compared to kind of the average over the past couple of years would be somewhere maybe around 20 percent meaning that six to eight percent cancellation rate right meaning you know home has been under contract in the quarter and the buyer just hey walked away you know maybe pay some cancellation fee but hey we don't want it uh you know doesn't fit ours our schedule so uh you know like what to do now right what to do with the inventory well super scary stuff and to buy on top of that right we have a KKR caps withdrawals on real estate trust in latest pullback right so you're having you're having these huge institutional buyers we've seen a little bit something similar with Vivid Blackstone recently they have these big funds where you know you ask some of the wealthy individuals you know High net for individuals to invest in in those and they are just buying the you know the inventory of the real estate and all of these all of these you know trusts similar to this one real estate select trust uh they are it's not like you are you know on a stock market the price fluctuates every day no these are kind of a semi-opback right you um the the net asset value of all of the the the inventory is readjusted maybe quarterly with some you know private private person or company to kind of doing the evaluation meaning it's always you know a little bit shady and you know normally these straws have some quart quarterly limits for withdrawal right because okay now you are not at the public market you are kind of the the semi-private with uh High net worth individuals who you know you kind of want to to lock the money there for some time do some bigger deals so obviously the private Market is moving somewhere differently than the stock market where it's you know just super fast paced and you know like you can trade the stock in and out and you can liquidate all the positions you know on a whim but with the private Market there is always a little bit of a like right meaning that also you know sometimes these private companies wants to play a little bit of a game with all of this right so even though the the public market would already you know showed you that oh my God everything's already declined 20 30 percent the the private company might say like we did an evaluation and it didn't really you know do anything our guys say that it's still a world what it's worth uh but hey you know obviously these sign it for individuals apparently don't don't trust this kind of an approach and they just want out okay you're telling me that it still cost this ah perfect I'll take my money out and so apparently they hit the limit and you know now like you know this they are playing this game uh yeah we we're not going to let you get more than this amount but hey you know we want out so that's definitely a tricky scenario right but back to the home builders because what happened over the past maybe like a year or so or well since the first first wave of the pandemic right in 2020 everything you know on this chart you can see the mortgage rate in in the red right that were steadily you know kind of going down since 2019 and you have the home sales with the blue right so obviously when the first pandemic hit it first there was a panic everything was kind of crashing and whatever but the mortgage rates you know were just like true totally towards the ground that's this whole period 2020 21 22 kind of the rates oscillating between 2.7 3.1 you know great rates it's just like you know so incentivizing anyone to to get the new homes also with the pandemic and everything right you know there wasn't that much to do you were locked at home so maybe you were like hey maybe I need a bigger home right so you know you you close the the new sale for the home so all of the new sale were pretty elevated for most of 22 for 2021 and then only in 22 it's starting to uh drop quite significantly right with the rising rate so you know as the rates are rising the sales are plummeting but what's the effect of on home builders right because let's look at some of the you know for example KB Homes here fourth quarter 2022 highlights Revenue increased 16 percent amazing right operating income grew 30 percent amazing right well yeah for now right but you know building a home that's a process right that takes a year or two meaning these companies are moving so so so slowly in terms of you know their their whole Market cycle and investors you know if you look at the the first glance you just see okay revenue is perfect uh operating income as well you look at the you know maybe some of the stuff like the the p ratio right but as we looked a little bit before for Dr Horton 5.8 for KB Homes 4.1 so it looks like it's such a great value for this company but well it's freaking not because all of these earnings like by about 12 to 18 months so this is basically you know Big Value trip because if you look at the KB Homes net orders are down 80 percent 80 oh my God that's so crazy backlog value decreased 25 right so that's also plummeting and it will most likely continue to to plummet even further and that will show in couple of quarters right that suddenly you know you have buy you have 80 less orders that means you will have only you know maybe one sixth of of the of the revenue one sixth of uh meaning that that p ratio that might now be five okay when the revenue actually increased so much you you might not even be profitable or you know it will just be significantly higher p ratio right because suddenly your your profits are significantly less bit with much less Revenue much less profits you know everything's kind of down the drain so there are basically two scenarios right eight to VR in a massive bubble and all of these home builders need to come down by you know at least 50 I would say at least or maybe just maybe but I would put relatively low probability on that there is a possibility that investors are kind of betting on the fat pivot in the second half of the year and the rates going down again spurring more demand for for the home sales but I would say that's even if that happens right the uh you know the home sales are most likely still going to be relatively down compared to this you know crazy elevated demand of 2020 2021 so you know in my opinion this looks very very very scary and you know you can look at the backlog value right for the KB Homes and this is a little bit of your chart because they always have like the first quarter of 20 21 22 so it basically goes uh well a little bit weird right but you can see that the from like 20 to 21 to 22 basically the backlog was Rising rising Rising but then only in 22 you know it basically peaked at the second quarter of 22 the the backlog value right and now it's going down and now it's going down again and where is going to be next quarter right because I mean this is this is super quick you know like the backlog just evaporated for from from 6 billion uh to to 3.6 so almost 50 percent cut in the backlog in half a year so very is going to be in another half a year like even if it stays the same it just means that again almost half of the the revenue profits evaporated so and and I don't think that you know KB Home takes to the metaverse for new home viewings I don't think that's gonna help the the profits right so they should really focus on on what they are actually doing like the the real world so like in my opinion this is super scary you can also look at some of the other home builders like Lena right new orders decreased by 15 so not as dramatic but backlog decreased 21 so and and it's uh you know fourth quarter highlights so again right it's definitely going down the question is by how much so you know like as always what Kramer says you just have to do the the opposite and like this is just the the prime example so obviously there was a lot of rambling for me I hope this little bit uh you know give you another perspective if you like my rambling subscribe like you know all of this uh YouTube BS but I'm here to just you know show you that that another angle and a little bit try to uncover some of the intricacies of the market because what in my opinion basically perspired is the the you know lots of those home builders are solidly run companies especially if you look in some of the higher and Tall Brothers uh but it's the investors who are delusional right and for some reason pushing the stock price was so high or or keeping keeping it elevated even though the earnings are most likely going to decline significantly over the next next couple of quarters right so it's just taking time bomb I don't know if those investors are just you know like kind of playing the the game of musical chairs and just you know waiting for that moment to to exit those long positions uh but you know that's definitely a scary place to be right so you rather when you are playing this game of musical chairs you want to be rather the the first one to exit the game right so that's just my opinion I would almost again like for me this looks like a nice example for a short position not something I'm most likely going to do because of course with shorting there comes other other challenges but this is just super scary so thank you for staying with me take care
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