저자: OndrejSlunecko · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 Jamie Dimon(JP모건 CEO)의 2022년 연례 서한 내용을 소개하며 글로벌 시장의 위기 요인을 정리한다. 미국 경제는 고용 지표가 강해 여전히 탄탄하다는 것이 Dimon의 진단이며, 봄·여름 이후 봉쇄 해제로 여행·레저 관련주가 좋은 흐름을 보일 것이라고 전망한다. 코로나19 이후 시장에 풀린 막대한 유동성으로 인플레이션이 연준의 통제 밖으로 나갔고, 이를 잡기 위해 공격적인 금리 인상이 불가피하다고 본다. 우크라이나-러시아 전쟁으로 원자재 시장(리튬, 밀·사탕무 등 식량 관련 상품)이 크게 흔들리고 공급망이 더 악화될 수 있다고 지적한다. 팬데믹 부양책, 금리 인상, 러시아 제재가 동시에 겹치는 전례 없는 상황이라고 정리한다. 하반기는 연착륙 가능성도 있지만 변수 중 하나라도 어긋나면 급속히 악화될 수 있어 예측이 매우 어렵다는 결론이다. 마지막으로 강한 리더십과 하반기 미국 대선의 중요성을 언급하며, 서방 세계가 이 혼란을 더 강해져서 벗어나야 한다고 강조한다. 이 영상은 특정 종목의 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측이나 목표가를 제시하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
we live in very interesting times considering the economic global market uh the logistics obviously you know the supply chains there has been so many disruptions and here are some of the stuff that uh jamie diamond the basically the goat of the banking in the us uh outlined in his annual letter and my take on some of those because obviously on a super super big scale we've been through a huge systemic shock that started in 2020 with the whole covet pandemic very basically you know did like a hard stop on the whole economy supply chain everything got super disrupted we pumped a lot of money into the system right the jpel was just crazy with that printer and the the shockwaves for from all this are you know rippling through through the time all the way up until now where obviously we are just getting more and more you know stones being thrown into the pond of the global market with obviously the the crazy war that's happening between the ukraine and russia so there are certain key aspects that we need to consider also in in in the respect of okay are we going to have some kind of a recession slow down is it going to be this year or the next year so basically one of the stuff that jamie outlined was that the u.s economy is still strong the the numbers for employment are obviously super powerful if you actually go outside there is so much going on you know if you go to a mall if you go to a restaurant people are so fed up with you know being locked down for already a couple of years that especially now going into the summer with um you know all the lockdowns is easing uh it's predicted that this is going to be a really great summer for lots of you know obviously uh travel and leisure related uh stocks companies so you know in a sense it's uh seems like the u.s is in excellent financial shape um but the point number two is that uh obviously with that systemic shock money in the system the inflation is just you know out of out of fed's hands and this will more most likely require aggressive rate hikes that's kind of the big elephant in the room because inflation needs to be stopped and managed right and that could happen through managing of the supply chains or aggressive rate heights and it seems that the supply chains are going to get even worse with everything that's happening right which is kind of tied with the point number three the war in the ukraine uh which is disrupting commodity market in a significant manner and some of the key key elements you know you can talk about the lithium in the evs or other stuff obviously we have you know kind of the food related commodities like beet uh which again like this these will be systematic shocks that will kind of ripple and economy is just super hard especially now in the global world everything's intertwined so it's it's just super hard to predict any of these so you know we are basically having these forces that are fighting kind of against each other so we are now having this unprecedented moment in history which is basically point number four where at the same time there is a converging of that pandemic fueled stimulus rising rates sanctions towards the russia war in the europe and you know that's just like super combat style mix that uh you know it might transpire in in any possible manner right you know maybe we will just kind of get through it the second half of the year might be relatively you know smoothly up might be a soft landing with the rate hikes if jay powell and the rest of the fed can you know juggle all these balls uh in the air at the same time but at the same time you know if any of these aspects get just like a little out of the hand it might spiral really quickly so dangerous time and really unpredictable right so kind of the the the last point that's uh most important and obviously it's intertwined the economy and the politics and now uh strong leadership is more important than ever before right especially with with the us with basically the the top world power in which is kind of being at the same time challenges right by many different other players obviously with the china so we really really need a leadership in the us that can have uh a tight grip and clear vision kind of you know going forward uh but obviously the election kind of looming in the second half of the year uh it's going to be really important to ensure that democracy and freedom still prevail and basically the western world can work out or all these complexities and really make sure that we can get out of this mess stronger than before okay folks that's all for today if you've managed to listen to my rambling all the way up until this point you are freaking awesome i love you give me a comment down below subscribe like you know the usual stuff connect with me on twitter you know just groom my name or something i would like to hear your opinion about any of the stuff i have mentioned and keep being awesome take care
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