저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션은 2023년에도 급락하지 않고 끈질기게 남는 '3번째 챕터'가 올 것이라는 전망이다. 인플레이션 3단계 구도: 2021년 1챕터는 에너지 인플레이션(주유소 휘발유 약 10달러 수준)으로 촉발됐고, 2022년 2챕터는 원자재 투입비용 상승에 따른 재화 인플레이션이었다. 이후 둔화됐다. 3챕터 근거: 2022년 말 임금 인플레이션 관련 기사가 많아졌다. 바이든의 1800년대 법 활용 철도 파업 방지, 최저임금 인상 주 증가, 노조화 추세를 예로 들었다. 노동·자본 구조: 자본에서 노동으로 힘이 기우는 추세이며, 노동참가율이 낮고 계속 하락 중이다. 실업률은 오를 수 있으나 기업은 임금을 올려야 인력을 구할 수 있다. 리스크·전망: 임금 상승이 과장되면 인플레이션이 높은 수준에 머물러 쉽게 꺾이지 않는다. 이것이 본인의 역발상 베팅이라고 밝혔다. 비트코인 차트 분석(사회자): 일봉 EMA 리본이 노란선 위로 복귀했고 주봉은 아직 하락 구간이다. CMF 양전환, 1BTC 이상 주소 증가, 공급 부족 지표 등을 근거로 바닥 신호를 주장했다. 이는 사회자 발언이므로 calls에서 제외했다. 달러 코스트 애버리징 권유 등 사회자 전망은 참고만 한다.
다듬은 글
foreign go and pick that inflation which people expect to fall off a cliff doesn't fall off a cliff as fast or as meaningfully as people want and there you have it from billionaire to moth palapatia and he's given his take on what's coming for this year 2023 and his take on inflation that's a small clip we got more of this before the video's out so make sure you watch this to the end but he'll be talking about his prediction for the third chapter of inflation yep he's saying that we've been through two chapters already and he's calling for a third chapter to play out in 2023 so once again you don't want to miss this video before we get to any of that make sure you go ahead and check us out at Bitcoin Bros if you haven't subscribed to the channel make sure you go ahead and subscribe and smash that like button we really appreciate it we really appreciate all your support and taking a look at the Bitcoin price chart what do we see what do we anticipate now Bitcoin has had a rally as of late let's zoom into the price action to see what we see and we see Bitcoin at the current time this record Jordan's coming in at 22 743 and we're looking at Bitcoin versus the US Dollar on the daily chart right now what do we see recently in the EMA ribbons we've seen this long call and since that long call has been had Bitcoin has blasted up about 25 but then had to cool off a little bit we reached all the way up to around the level of 23.3 will this move sustain are we out the woods and is the bottom end for this bear Market well looking at this we see this EMA ribbon is looking pretty good and we did get back above the yellow line with the EMA ribbon indicator so once again this is the daily let's look on a higher time frame let's look at the weekly there's a difference here you see that we're not out the woods yet we're not a back above the yellow line and the EMAs are still red but one good thing is that they are starting to coil up so if we look at any history of Bitcoin once the weekly starts to coil up from the red just a little bit that's a good sign and it tends to turn long within a given time frame so this is back in the 2019 bear market and if we look further back in the charts what do we see the first time we have some type of coil up which is right here then we had a dump here so it's already double bottomed out this was a time where there was an anomaly so we seemed like we were out the woods came up then dumped all the way back down seen that double bottom pattern before we blast it up to the upside and then ultimately turned green so we could see this double bottom scenario play out you have to be aware of this but once again we're not off the woods yet on the weekly but going back to the daily chart what do we see and why do we think that we could be out the woods because every time we come below this yellow line every single time and we're down there for a significant amount of time when we come back above it it's definitely bullish for the short term and we have had a close above it looking at the last as a bear cycle when we had that 2017 Peak and we came below it we were below this yellow line for a substantial amount of time but the first time we got above it we had a rally we had a relief rally but then we cooled back off but then we didn't stay down too long this was a Black Swan event the pandemic didn't happen then we could have seen this just rally starting from here so all in all we are looking very good on the daily because we have been below this yellow line and that's a very huge resistance band so definitely looking bullish for Bitcoin in a couple updates we'd like to show you the Bitcoin weekly super Trend Buy Signal we just showed you this on the daily for the EMA other people are seeing this too Titans of crypto also seeing the cmf the check-in money flow just moved into the positive so every time this happened in past every time this flipped to the positive the bottom was already in so I another indicator showing that the bottom is in and then this right here from Game of Trades the Bitcoin number of addresses with over one Bitcoin have been accumulating like there's no tomorrow this UPS the odds of a Bitcoin Supply shortage so why is that important and why do we care because when there's a Bitcoin Supply shortage that means a supply is shock and then also it's going to be a shock to the price so if we take a look at this chart here every time the orange line is above the black line what happens afterwards so back here in 2016 2017 the orange line was above and then the price had a shock and then we went to that twenty thousand dollar threshold every single time we were briefly above it here price had a shock and then we are above it here then we went on a rally once again in 2021 so definitely like and retweet this this is definitely a good find but right now you see this is the time that you should have been dollar car cost averaging if you have not without further Ado we'll get back to the clip from tremath he's talking about the inflationary pressures that could still be amongst us in 2023 if this inflationary balloon continues to Bubble Up and continues to give the everyday retail investor pressure pressure to pay bills pressure to go grocery shopping are they going to have to break the bank are they going to have to go into their piggy bank are they going to go into the reserves are they going to be able to afford to continue to shop well you have an option to opt out let's see what your mouth has to say go and pick that inflation which people expect to fall off a cliff doesn't fall off a cliff as fast or as meaningfully as people want and so I will explain inflation as three different chapters and we've seen the first two chapters play out so 2021 chapter one was all about energy inflation and you know we all talked about having almost ten dollar gas at the pump and what does it mean for everybody and it caused that initial Spike in inflation and then we had it come off and sax called this he said you know we're going to have this sort of double hump and 2022 was really the story of goods inflation right all these prices and all of these things went up because the input costs went up and we all had to Bear the implications of that but then that started to ebb and now if you looked at the tail end of 2022 what I found super interesting was the number of articles I saw about wage inflation whether that was Biden using an 1800s era law to prevent a Railroad Strike the number of states that increased minimum wage the trend around unionization so in general my thought is that the pendulum is swinging very markedly away from capital and towards labor and as the labor participation rate stays low and continues to go down and also it's compounded by an unemployment rate that may go up right people are it's going to be harder and harder to get people to do the work you need at the company you have unless you pay them more and if that gets exaggerated then inflation will stay where it is it won't be as muted and it won't fall off a cliff as people want it'll be persistent that's my big contrarian got it wager for this year
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