저자: JoshInvests · 외국인
요약 보기
QQQ를 벤치마크로 두고 XLK, VGT, SMH 세 기술 섹터 ETF가 장기 누적수익에서 QQQ를 앞선다고 주장. 과거 연평균 주가상승률(XLK 21.39%, VGT 21.9%, SMH 25%로 보수적 조정)을 복리로 적용해 30년 후 1만 달러 가치를 QQQ 203만, XLK 346만, VGT 389만, SMH 818만 달러로 추정. 과거 수익률 기반 장기 시뮬레이션이며 미래 수익을 보장하지 않는 단순 투사.
다듬은 글
QQQ has been the default answer to what is the best tech ETF for over a decade. $400 in assets, every major tech name at the top, and over 470% return in the last 10 years. But three funds in the same technology sector, holding the same type of companies, beat QQQ across every single time frame measured.
And the one that pulls furthest ahead beats it by over $6 million on the same $10,000 investment. So, here is what we're going to do today. Josh runs 10 grand through QQQ first and sets the benchmark, the number every other fund in this video has to beat. Then he takes that same 10 grand and runs it through three ETFs in the same technology sector.
Every single one of them beats QQQ. And in the end, I will show you which fund projects past $8 million on that same 10 grand. Before any of those three funds get their turn, Josh needs a number to measure them against. And for this video, that benchmark is QQQ. QQQ tracks the Nasdaq 100, the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange.
Now, here is something most people do not realize. QQQ is not a pure tech fund. About 51% of it sits in the technology sector, but the rest includes Amazon, which the market classifies as consumer discretionary, Tesla in that same category, and Meta and Alphabet, both classified as communication services.
So, what most people call a tech ETF is really a growth ETF with a heavy tech lean. You need to know that going in because the three funds coming after this one do not mix sectors like that. What QQQ does have going for it is scale. Roughly $400 billion in assets make it the fifth largest ETF in the world.
It holds Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Alphabet, the names that have driven most of the market's gains over the last decade. The expense ratio is 0.18%. Now, let me show you the metrics. QQQ runs a 0.48% dividend yield, which tells you right away this is not a fund built for income.
It is built for growth. The dividend growth rate over the last decade is 9.12% and the annual share price appreciation is 19.23% and that appreciation number is the engine that drives everything forward in a long-term projection. So, let me show you what that looks like. Josh puts in the 10 grand, no additional contributions, and lets the projection run.
After 1 year, QQQ would grow to $11,971. After 10 years, $59,590. After 20 years, $349,088. After 30 years, $2,032,989. That is the benchmark, $2.03 million from a single $10,000 investment. That is a strong number. And for most investors, that is where the search ends because nobody goes looking for a better version of something that already looks like it worked.
Every fund in this video gets measured against that line. Year 1, year 10, year 20, year 30. So, why does everybody default to QQQ? It is not a performance problem. QQQ performs. The issue is that QQQ has been the first recommendation in every beginning investing article, every finance YouTube video, and every best tech ETF list for the last decade.
When a new investor asks where to start, someone says QQQ. Then another person says QQQ. And at some point, it stops being a recommendation and starts being the default. The fund you buy because everybody before you bought it. The three funds coming next do not have that behind them. They don't get the headlines.
They do not show up on the first page of search results. And most investors never think to look for them because QQQ already feels like the answer. That is the only reason they are still under the radar. Now, you have a reason. Let me show you the first one. The first thing that catches attention is not the fund name, it's the cost.
QQQ charges 0.18% in annual fees. On a $10,000 investment, that's 18 bucks a year going to the fund manager. Now, most investors see that number and think it's nothing. And honestly, in year one, it kind of is. But here's the thing, every dollar that goes to fees is a dollar that stops working for you.
And over a 30-year projection, that adds up. So, let me introduce you to the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF, ticker symbol XLK. It charges 0.08%. That is $8 a year on the same 10 grand. Same tech giants at the top, same sector, less than half the cost just to hold it. People walk past this line every day without reading it.
But the fee is just where XLK starts to separate itself. Here's where it really gets interesting. XLK tracks the technology sector of the S&P 500, strictly and only the companies the market classifies as technology. That gives you 77 holdings at 99.91% pure technology. No consumer discretionary, no communication services, no Amazon or Tesla diluting the exposure.
Remember how QQQ only has about 51% actual tech? XLK does not make that trade. What you see is what you get. The top of the fund is Nvidia at 15.5%. Apple at 13.63%. Microsoft at 10.05% and Broadcom at 5.37%. The rest of the top 10 fills out with names like Micron, Palantir, AMD, and Cisco. And those 10 names account for 61.38% of the entire fund.
This thing has been running since 1998, so you're looking at 25-plus years of live performance data. And when you line that performance up against QQQ, XLK beats it almost every time frame. So, what is actually pulling XLK ahead? It comes down to one number, an annual share price appreciation of 21.39% versus QQQ's 19.23%.
A 2.16 percentage point edge that compounds harder with every year that passes. XLK also runs a slightly higher dividend yield at 0.56% and a 6.52% dividend growth rate over the last decade. But the appreciation is doing the real work in the projection. So, here is what that does to the 10 grand. After 1 year, XLK would grow to $12,195.
After 10 years, $71,219. After 20 years, $497,252. After 30 years, $3,458,091. That is over $1.4 million more than QQQ on the same 10 grand. A number like that alone would change most people's retirement. And XLK is the smallest gap of the three. The fund coming next beats QQQ by even more. And in the end, I will show you a fund that is projected to push that same 10 grand past $8 million by year 30.
Two funds to go. But before we get there, here is what XLK gives up, the S&P 500 filter. Every company XLK holds has to already be large enough to sit inside the S&P 500 before the fund will touch it. That means the mid-cap names still growing underneath the giants, the ones on their way to become the next household names, never make the cut.
The next fund changes that. Let me introduce you to the Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF, ticker symbol VGT. Same tech giants at the top, same sector, and at first glance, it looks almost identical to XLK. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, right there at the top of both funds. So, the question worth asking is why this is even a separate pick.
And the answer is not at the top. It's in everything sitting underneath. XLK holds 77 companies. VGT holds 322. Remember why? XLK only pulls from the S&P 500, so every company has to already be large enough to sit inside that index before it gets in. VGT does not have that filter. It goes wider. Mid-caps, small-caps, companies still growing into household names that XLK will not touch unless they are already large.
The giants anchor the top of both funds. But underneath XLK's 77 companies sits a completely different universe of 245 additional companies compounding alongside the giants in VGT. And that is the real separator. Now, here is how the fund actually looks. VGT holds Nvidia at 18.07%. Apple at 15.84%. Microsoft at 10.39% and Broadcom at 4.34%.
After that, names like Micron, AMD, Cisco, and Palantir round out the top of the fund. Each one under 2 and 1/2%. Each one pulling its weight. The whole fund sits at 99.63% pure technology across all 322 holdings. And the expense ratio is 0.09%. Basically identical to XLK and still half of what QQQ charges.
And VGT beats QQQ at every single time frame, every one. Now, here is where the metrics start to explain the gap. VGT has a 0.43% dividend yield, a 5.49% dividend growth rate over the last decade, and an annual share price appreciation of 21.9%. That is slightly higher than XLK's 21.39%. So, here is what Josh's 10 grand does in VGT.
After 1 year, $12,233. After 10 years, $73,758. After 20 years, $535,972. After 30 years, $3,885,032. That is $1.85 million more than QQQ and over $400,000 more than XLK. Same 10 grand, same time frame. So now two funds in, both beat QQQ, both live in the same tech neighborhood, same giants at the top, same sector, different depth.
The third fund does not live in that neighborhood at all. It goes one layer deeper to the companies that physically make the chips. Every tech giant on both of these lists depend on them to exist. The fund is the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, ticker symbol SMH. Here's what that means in practice. Without the companies in SMH, Tesla has no product.
Without these companies, Apple has no iPhone. Without these companies, every tech giant on both previous lists stops operating. SMH tracks the 25 largest US listed semiconductor companies, 26 holdings total, and 99.93% pure technology. No Apple, no Microsoft, no Amazon. This fund exists entirely inside one specific layer of the technology stack, and it goes very deep into it.
The top of the fund is Nvidia at 19.64% TSMC at 11.84% Broadcom at 7.79% and ASML at 4.99%. After that, names like KLA Corp, Analog Devices, AMD, and Texas Instruments fill out the rest of the top 10. And those 10 names account for 72.19% of the entire fund. Now here's what most investors miss. Two of those names do not appear anywhere in XLK or VGT.
TSMC, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, is the largest chip foundry in the world. It physically manufactures the chips for Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and dozens of others. ASML is the only company on Earth that makes the extreme ultraviolet lithography machine semiconductor fabs need to produce advanced chips.
No ASML machine, no advanced chip. These are not companies betting on AI winning. They are companies the entire AI industry pays regardless of who wins. And that is exactly why SMH does not just beat QQQ at every time frame. It's not even close. Now, one thing worth flagging before we get to the numbers.
SMH is the only fund in this video that costs more than QQQ with an expense ratio of 0.35%. On 10 grand, that is 35 bucks a year versus QQQ's 18. The fee is higher, but hold that thought because what this fund does in the projection is the reason the search does not stop here. So here are the metrics.
SMH runs a 0.28% dividend yield, a 6.83% dividend growth rate over the last decade, and an annual share price appreciation of 31.9% over the same period. Now that 31.9% is the actual number on paper, and that number is real, but it is heavily skewed by two extraordinary years. 2023 returned returned 39.1% two years that pulled the long run average upward in a way that does not reflect what a full market cycle looks like.
Then 2022, down 33.53%. That year is part of the story, too. So the 31.9% trailing figure does not get used here. A more conservative 25% gets used instead. A round number that sits well below the long run average accounts for the bad years alongside the good ones and keeps the projection honest. That 25% is what Josh's 10 grand runs on from here.
And here is what that looks like on Josh's 10 grand. After 1 year, $12,528. After 10 years, $94,130. After 20 years, $877,918. After 30 years, $8,177,829. So let me put all four funds on the same graph and show you what 30 years of the same 10 grand actually looks like side by side. For the first 10 years or so, the lines sit pretty close together.
The difference between them feels academic. Then around year 15, year 20, one of those lines, the gold one, starts pulling away from everything else on the chart. And it does not pull away gradually. It pulls away decisively. By the time you get to year 30, this is not really a comparison anymore. Here's where each fund lands.
QQQ ends at $2.03 million. XLK ends at $3.46 million. VGT ends at $3.89 million. And SMH ends at $8.18 million. Think about what you're looking at. Three funds in the same technology sector. Three funds anybody with a brokerage account can buy. And on the same $10,000 investment over 30 years, the difference between owning QQQ and owning SMH is over $6.1 million.
Not because one bet on technology and the other did not. They both did. The difference is that one of them went deeper into the specific layer of technology everything else depends on. Now look at the other gaps. QQQ to XLK is $1.43 million. QQQ to VGT is $1.85 million. Both of those numbers would change most people's retirement on their own.
And neither of them is what this video was really about. What this video was about is the gold line. QQQ is not a bad ETF. It is just not the best one if you want maximum growth. If you want to see how 10 bucks a day into just two ETFs is projected to pay out six grand every single month, more than most people earn working full-time, that video is on screen right now.
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