저자: JohnHowell · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 다우·S&P500은 단기 상승 후 과열된 둥근 천장 형태로 보이며 큰 상승 추세 종료 신호 전까지는 조정 가능성을 열어두고, 금·은은 큰 상승 준비 단계, 비트코인은 하락 추세 지속으로 본다. 미국 지수(다우·S&P500·나스닥): 최근 3개월 상승 추세 후 추세선으로 되돌림 중이며 현재 다우 약 27,000 부근. 다우는 28,500 이상 도달 가능성을 언급. 나스닥은 저항선에서 버티는 중이며 돌파 시 산타랠리 지속으로 해석. 단, 시간당 차트에서 둥근 천장 형태가 나타나고 있어 추세선 이탈 시 하락 전환 우려. 다우 주봉: 한 달 전(10월 15일) 제시한 저점 상승 구조(higher low)가 유지되며 연말 상승 기대를 밝혔으나, 주봉에서 추세선과 27,000 아래로 이탈 후 재하락하면 고점 형성 신호로 봄. 정확한 고점 예측은 불가능하다고 강조. 금·은·금광주: 금은 장기 채널 내 횡보 중이며 '폭풍 전의 고요'로 표현. 상단 돌파 시 1,460 단기 목표, 이후 1,700~1,800 신고가 가능성 제시. 은(SI)도 유사한 횡보 후 돌파 기대. GDX는 돌파 시 30 단기 목표. 돌파 시점은 수일~수개월로 열어둠. 올해를 금·금광주 역사적 대상승장의 시작으로 평가. 비트코인: 어제 제시한 저점 상승 가능성이 무너지고 이중·삼중 바닥 후 재하락 흐름. 추가 하락 시 6,000 재이탈 가능, 이후 4,000, 나아가 3,000까지 언급하며 크립토 팬의 반발을 예상. 리스크 관리: 경기침체 가능성 언급, 한 종목에 과도한 자금 집중 금지, 포트폴리오 기준 약 5%, 단일 포지션 최대 손실 40~50% 수준 제한, 손절 원칙 강조. 영상 말미에 유료 교육 과정 홍보.
다듬은 글
don't place a trade based on what you're seeing this video because there is no guarantees or making a profit the market it takes you a long time to become a good trader so this video here is just to educate you to become a much better trainer hi traders over the last 15 years we've tested 64 different trading courses and we have put the most powerful systems and trading techniques that we've discovered in this brand-new training course and for a limited time on get away free access so go to John's free gift com that's John's free gift comp or click on the very first thing in description you get free access to this brand-new trading course right now all rightie trainers so we're going to have a market update in this video and we're going to be looking at the indices also S&P 500 Nasdaq Dow also be looking at the silver and gold also we're looking at Bitcoin as well too so let's get straight into what's happened right now so today we can see that the Dow Jones is still if I bring up so the last three months we can see that Dow Jones has been very in a very nice movement to the upside very nice upward trend and we're just continuing to pull back through here if I squeeze much higher up a little bit more you can see how it's just pulled back towards this trendline through here and where we are right now you see how it's holding here quite nicely so I would have been too quite surprised to see this thing continue rallying at keene continuing moving up from him we did get a pullback here in the in the dow jones same for the S&P 500 as well to actually got a break in out and below that level there so to be really interested see what happens through there now that's not the trend line is no longer valid anymore so if we go to the we go through to the to the last sort of six month for you for bring up say the alley chart here on the S&P 500 we can see what's happening here right we can see how it's been just trending up nicely training up nicely turning up nicely and you can see how it's see how it's sort of slowing and what I mean by slowing you can see it's more like a rounding top right now this is on the hourly chart so it may only last so you can see how see how we start the round a little bit we round and round it starts to head down you can see what's happening through here right we're sort of rounding a little bit so it's not really it's not rounding exactly we still need to like another low or high or something like that through there breaking that low but moving on through to the sp4 I've heard it if we start to get something like that then it's gonna be it's going to be pretty much so off down through to here right now but on the daily chart we're almost at the word we're almost at that level through here I believe once again same as the SP for our the Dow Jones that we did get a nice little pullback through here and then once we got to pull back through here then I do believe we'll likely to start to see a rally back up towards the top of this trendline and because the Dow Jones wizard as the Dow drives right now is at 27,000 we've got the 28 and then we actually broke down I do see at least 28 50 at least the top of the channel on the Dow Jones is likely to be hit so to be interesting to see whether we do start to really break up and out of that through there and same for the Nasdaq as well - if I take that off that you can see the Nasdaq is actually just holding right at that resistance level there so to be really interesting to see that do we actually break up and up and above this level through here and if we do then it's pretty much it's pretty much our santa claus rally you know is happening so I believe the santa claus rally has already started so and it's quite possible we're likely to see this continuing on for quite some time so that's what I'm seeing there right now on the on the S&P 500 but one thing I want to do is I want to bring up a idea I put up a chart recently for my community on YouTube and I just saw something there why the bull market might may not have any teeth left that means the bull markets gonna continue up and I'm gonna throw this here right and I'm going to I'm going to share this with you here so this is the community this is the community tab that that I obviously like for YouTube okay now if I bring this up here one thing I want to share with you here is look at this here right so I put this up a month ago here and I said dad Jones weekly get ready for a big move up now what may be so confident and insane that blatant statement like that big movie be a big move up if I click on this Dow Jones chart through here right we can see how we had a low we had a higher low a higher low and a high low Dow Jones to get ready for a big move up into Christmas this year and it's really interesting right because this actually happened a month ago actually what what was the date the date on that there let me see if I can zoom in car zooming what was the date the date was the 15th of the 10th well there you go alright so the 15th of the 10th which is which is over a month ago now ok which is which is over a month ago so we can see that's what's happening there right now and you can see that that's this market e higher low high low high low and that's what made me so confident and it's something as simple as that can really give you some gauges and what I mean by that is that was the dow jones daily was it must have been the dow jones weekly there was a mistake there dow jones weekly so if i go back to the dow jones weekly and i bring up the actual kemp was that was the open hole at close shot let me go back to the open height close chart there and bring up the weekly as we can see right if i bring up this up here it was on there one two three and we didn't even break out yet if i go back to my chart that's where let me just delete that off the screen but it was actually right here where the market was the market was right here and that's what gave me the confidence to say get ready for a break up and out because we're pushing up higher lows higher lows higher lows so we're pushing up to the high side right now it's gonna be so interesting to see because we all know there's a recession just around the corner is it going to happen now is gonna happen next year but it's really interesting do we actually continue pushing up through here overall the big picture on the dow giant is that if we start to falter even if we do push up a little bit more over the next month or two if we start then folder and then come back down and then break back below the 27,000 and including this trendline and then we break down then we start to do something like this right even if we did run up a little bit through to here over the next say week or two or a month or two if we start to follow to him we start to I'm not saying this is gonna happen because I don't know what's gonna happen but if we start to break and then break and then break through here especially if we break past these levels through here oh my goodness that is that's that's a telling sign that the overall top is forming now no one can predict the exact high so we don't know we don't we can't say this is going to be the exact high in the markets no one can okay and if you know someone who's trying to pick the exact bottoms and exact tops in the market just doesn't work but the market can give you a point of where the market is finally topping out not the exact high but where the markets topping out before we start a bear market right because if the market sell it at it that's not a bear market that's just that's just a sell-off but once that happens then we're probably especially if we start to get get a close below that level there like that through there then it's probably unlike the on conned then we're probably going to start against something like that and get coming back down through there so that's what I'm saying there on the on the Dow Jones and and yeah and that's it's really really interesting just to keep an eye that's it that's the that's the important things to keep an eye on that weekly chart so if I go to let's have a look at the silver and gold so let's have a look at so silver right now let me just bring up the I'll bring up the candlesticks charts the candlestick chart so we can see that that gold is continued to sort of just hover around in this channel through here this sort of overall channel through here so it'll be interesting to see what actually happens to be here but I'm this is the calm before the storm and we can see that when this sort of week just very gold is not doing much at all and this is the calm before the storm when it and the storm is going to happen and when it happens we're gonna see another big move we did through here we just don't know when that's gonna happen we this is calm this calming effect was seen right now in gold this could continue on for you know for a while now we're just gonna wait for the break up and out so for me personally I'll be watching the Geo D because I can get because my software I can get the the volume they're looking up the last six months I can get the volume through here I can also see that we're getting this level sort of through here as well all right we have these levels through here so be really interesting if we can start there if we hold here and then break up and out through here then that's probably likely to start to see the the next move in gold and probably probably a nice move up at least a short-term target if that happened we don't know I'm not saying it is going to happen I'm saying if it does happen then probably 146 would be the target and then if we go to that weekly chart then we're probably likely to start to really scream and start to making a big move up towards all-time highs and so that could actually happen really really quickly 1700 possibly even if we start to make another move when we're probably on our way up to at least at 1,800 level on gold so I'm really really really excited for that guys by the way really excited for that if we have a look at say the si el si el it's pretty much doing the same thing on that weekly chart there pretty much nothing going on this is a calming effect so I wouldn't be too surprised if we haven't if we're getting ready to make an getting ready to make a breakout not tomorrow all I don't know if it's gonna be tomorrow but it will be too surprised to see that if we even if we do continue sideways a little bit that we're getting ready to have to have a nice breakout once it does they were probably likely to see a nice move up and that's the same for the GDX as well - same sort of thing really just kind of having a nice pull back through here not really much going on once we do see a nice sort of break up and out if we get a little gap up there probably like first first short-term target would be 30 now I'm not saying it's definite gonna break up guys because I don't know we could actually break down anything can happen in these markets but if we do start to break up the likelihood a lizard it's likely to continue this this trend because we are in a very strong weekly upward trend so I wouldn't be too surprised to see this thing overall start to break out soon soon is a couple of weeks maybe a couple months and then once we do then we're probably likely to start to see this thing really really galloping out and again I believe this overall picture it has been the start this this year has been the start of one of the biggest bull trends I see in the in history when it comes to gold and also gold stocks now if I look at Bitcoin as well I looked at Bitcoin yesterday and I've talked about a potential higher low and Bitcoin William when we make it when you make it a breakout we can see what's happening here right now with Bitcoin bring up this chart here all right why isn't that let me go back to here and I'm just gonna reset the chart there we go and we're gonna I'm gonna have a look at at Bitcoin here let's go to the daily chart all right there we go so we can see Bitcoin definitely didn't create that higher low us looking for a potential higher low in Bitcoin but all we've been doing is just simply creating simply sort of stuck in this downward movement now and in Bitcoin from there you can see how actually no that's not that's that's not the trend line there and then say through there so we're getting a very very sort of nice sort of downward Channel in fact that's actually delete that and then I want to get into a power which Hannah all right so from there there all right and so we can see that that's what's happening right now when it comes to Bitcoin so even though we had a very strong run up this has been very this has been continuing on the downside so we didn't I was actually looking for some sort of high-low through here we didn't actually get that so therefore there wasn't any position I was looking to put on with Bitcoin I was waiting for that higher low and especially that higher low and then breaking past these previous hires that would have been the key as I was saying yesterday's video for it to break up it's now no it's now no it's no longer a higher low because we're now pretty much made a double bottom or or a triple bottom so him I wouldn't be too surprised to see Bitcoin now follow through pack down and probably even head back down to walls these lows through here moving down towards the 6000 level now overall we can see on that alley chart what's been happening through there and that hourly chart look at that look at that just sideways movement and a breakdown just absolutely love that private client look at that there right beautiful right and now and now we now we've actually just broken down and so be really interesting to see what's going to happen there with Bitcoin but right now on the short-term basis it's still not looking good because we're still quite in this low or high low or high low or high low or high through here so we're still stair-stepping down overall so what I mean it wouldn't be too surprised to see this thing break it may go sideways a little bit because we're our at support but there's probably likely to continue breaking head back down towards that 6,000 level and if that happens guys then then it may be we may be getting ready to have a drop back down towards the 4000 level maybe even 4,000 may be easy yeah around these bottoms here around the I drop back down towards the 4000 maybe even back down a 3,000 now I know a lot of you crypto fans are gonna say that's not gonna happen it cannot happen it's not gonna happen you don't know John read the research of them the papers and you know it's just not gonna happen bye bye bye well guess what if it happened back here can happen again okay so just if you are in Bitcoin right now or you in any crypto just always keep an open mind to that anything can happen and you are never you're never 100% right on every the position so if you get into a trade sometimes like you know what I mean this is this I'm I didn't get it right on this trade and so therefore I need to get out of I need to cut my losses and then move on the worst thing you can do is just stay in a marker because you think long term it's going to be the greatest thing on the planet because someone else said so so just be smart about the way you're investing be smart away your trade and the way you stay in this game is try to protect your capital by having good by not risking not putting too much money on any individual one position and then even within that individual position call it maybe ten percent of your ten percent of your account on say one trade you know you want to be protecting that as well too so maybe maybe a maximum risk would be say you know 40 percent or 50 percent maximum risk a risk and maybe five percent on your portfolio make sense so that's how you want to sort of protect that when every single position because the worst thing you want to do we stay stuck in a position that just keeps kind of gauged to engage to against you against you because I say so many people I spoke to someone just recently he said John I do so well I do so well and I keep Tom and just so well one one two one two three four months I'm just so what I grow a you know I eleven hundred dollar trading account into eleven thousand I just did so well and then one trade BAM it all goes and you know the reason why because this all it takes is just that one bad trade and then it's just wiped out you don't want to be like that so just if you are in crypto right now in your own Bitcoin right now I don't know why you got it Bitcoin I don't know where you got in Bitcoin I don't know where you got it in any position but when you get into any position in the market it's so important that you have some sort of a game plan of okay this is what I'm getting in but this is where I'm getting out as well too if it gets here because there's gonna be it might be a percentage or it might be a might be a technical level it might even be a percentage level of that if this gets down to here then I'm gonna be out through you want to sort of protect that through there with with with your investing there cuz the worst thing you want to do is hold on and then lose all that instead of just cut your losses short and then maybe two weeks three weeks four weeks later there's another beautiful opportunity hop that things run and you make all your money back from them from the last losing trade and there you're back in profit again hi traders John Hale he thanks for watching my video for a limited time only I am giving away free access to my brand-new trading course I put all my most powerful systems strategies and trading techniques that I've learned over the last 15 years and put it in this course and I'm giving away for free for a little bit of time see in this brand new guide the markets while the more training course and you can get it when you go to John's free gift calm you're gonna learn firstly you're gonna get access to a brand new training class for 90 minutes and you got to learn all the details step by step to my number one trading system with over a 90% success rate that works on any market and any time frame you also going to learn three powerful chart reading and trading techniques you're also gonna learn at two more powerful trading systems and also gonna learn seven-figure trading secrets my tech techniques and so much more this top 13 mistakes can alone the 10k per month formula and so much more no this is not a get-rich-quick scheme but if you are struggle with your trading right now and you need help then for a limited time you can get free access to this so go to John's free gift calm right now or click on the very first second description cuz for a little bit of time I'm giving away so go to John's free gift calm right now and start getting access to this full complete training course plus also the free training with my number one trading system with over ninety percent success rate go to that right now and I'll see you on the next page
Comments 0